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1 ( ( ) ) :,,,, : 1978,, 1 (a) 1 (b), 20 90,31 GDP GDP GDP GDP : (a) ; (b) Lorenz : ( 1999, ), Chen Feng(2000) ,,,,,, Lee (1994) Dayal2Gulati Husain (2000), Young(2000),,, 19

2 : ( Fleisher and Chen,1997),,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,, (,2002a), :,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Lin and Tan,1999),,,, (,2002b) 11,, 20

3 2003 3, (Solow,1956 ;Barro and Sala2I2Martin,1991,1992),,,,,,, (2002a) ( TCI) ( TCI 3 ), : DS = TCI - TCI 3 (1) ( ), DS = 0, DS > 0 DS 0,,, : G i = L n ( GDPPL 0, i ) + 2 DS i + X + u i (2) (2), GDP Ln ( GDPPL 0, i ) 1978 GDP,,, 1 ;,, 2 TCI 3, DS i, TCI 3,, (2) (2 ) : G i = C k + 1 L n ( GDPPL 0, i ) + 2 TCI i + X + u i (2 ) (2 ), C k = 0-2 TCI 3 TCI i 2 (2) (2 ), X, 21 TCI i, (2002) TCI i TCI i , TCI i, TCI7899 : TCI7885, TCI, (2 ) X,,,,,,,,,, ( SAV i ),,,,,,, TCI, ( ),, TCI 21

4 :, Mankiw (Mankiw et al., ), : SAV i = t = 1978 GDP i, GDP I i,,,, ( LABG i ) ( HUMK82 i ) 1982 (Lee,1994 ;Dayal2Gulati and Husain,2000),, ( FDI i ), : , (, 2000 ;Tsui,1991,1993),, Barro,,,, (Barro and Sala2I2Martin,1991,1992),Barro, Barro,,,,,,,,,,Barro,, (1997) Barro Barro, Barro ,,,,,,Solow,,,,, Cheng (2002) Barro, GDP GDP (2002) 22

5 , 1 Constant (010290) (010587) (010502) (010478) (010503) (010474) (010497) (010477) [ ] 3 3 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] 3 3 [ ] [ ] [ ] Ln( GDPPL0) (010042) (010073) (010063) (010053) (010055) (010082) (010052) (010076) [ ] [ ] [ ] 3 3 [ ] [ ] [ ] 3 [ ] [ ] 3 TCI (010017) (010008) (010014) [ ] 3 3 [ ] [ ] 3 3 TCI (010020) (010012) (010021) [ ] [ ] [ ] SAVE (010244) (010209) (010330) (010203) (010293) [ ] [ ] 3 [ ] 3 3 [ ] 3 [ ] 3 3 LABG (014221) (013777) (014901) (013689) (015323) [ ] [ ] [ ] 3 3 [ ] 3 3 [ ] HUMK (010269) (010249) (010506) (010196) (010424) [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] FDI (010016) (010015) (010015) [ ] [ ] [ ] R : (1), ; t p (2),, White Robust (3), t (p ) 1 % ; 1 % 5 % 3 3 ; 5 % 10 % 3 Cheng (2002),,,Tusi (1996),, 6 23

6 :,, (2 ), : E ( u) = 0, Var ( u) = 2 i, White Robustness 31 1 TCI7885 TCI7899,, GDP ; Ln ( GDPPL 0 ) 2, Ln ( GDPPL0),,,, GDP 1 8,, Ln ( GDPPL 0 ),, GDP ;,, GDP 1 Barro,, Barro,,,, TCI TCI 3, GDP,TCI , TCI7899,, TCI TCI 3, GDP % GDP TCI7899 ( ) TCI 3,, TCI , DS , GDP %, Barro 24

7 2003 3,, GDP,, 1978,,,,,,, WTO,, WTO,,2002 :,, No. C ,2000 :, 10,1999 :,,2002a :, ( ), 2, ,2002b :, 12,2002 :, 1,1997 :, 3 Barro, Robert J. and Sala2I2Martin,Xavier,1991, Convergence Across States and Regions, Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, No1 1, Barro, Robert J. and Sala2I2Martin,Xavier,1992, Convergence, Journal of Political Economy, 100 :4, Chen, Baizhu, and Yi Feng,2000, Determinants of Economic Growth in China : Private Enterprise, Education and Openness, China Eco2 nomic Review, 11 (1) :1 15. Cheng, Y.,2002, Regional Growth Dynamics in China : A Re2examination of 2convergence and 2convergence, Mimeo, International Workshop on the Chinese Economy, Shanghai. Dayal2Gulati,Anuradha and Aasim M. Husain,2000, Centripetal Forces in China s Economic Take2off, IMF Working Paper,WPΠ00Π86. Fleisher, Belton M. and Jian Chen,1997, The Coast2Noncoast Income Gap, Productivity, and Regional Economic Policy in China, Journal of Comparative Economics : 25 (2), Lee, Jongchul.,1994, Regional Differences in the Impact of the Open Door Policy on Income Growth in China, Journal of Economic Devel2 opment, 19 (1) : Lin, J. Y. and Tan G.,1999, Policy Burden, Accountability, and the Soft Budget Constraint, American Economic Review : Papers and Proceedings, 88, Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. and Weil, D. N.,1992, A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Econom2 ics, 107, Solow, R. M.,1956, A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 :1, Tsui, Kai Yuen,1991, China s Regional Inequality : , Journal of Comparative Economics, 15 : Tsui, Kai Yuen, 1993, Decomposition of China s Regional Inequalities, Journal of Comparative Economics, 17 : Tusi, Kai yuan,1996, Economic Reform and Interprovincial Inequalities, Journal of Development Economics, 50, Young, Alwyn,2000, The Razor s Edge : Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People Republic of China, Quarterly Journal of Eco2 nomics, Vol. CXV, Nov 2000, pp ( : ) ( : ) 25

8 Abstracts of Papers in English Analysis on the Ne w Fluctuation Mode of China Economy Development Liu Shucheng ( Institute of Economics,CASS) This paper discusses the new China economy devleopment mode in In this period,china economy have grown stably but with faster speed, which never occurred since we sum up the active financial policy and moderate monetary policy which government implemented in this five years and want to add new content of the policy tool base for macro2economy adjustment in China s socialism market economy,after that,we have some international comparison and give our advice : China should create a new way in which China economy can grow stably in the 8 % 10 % interval in the future and we also should remember several overheated lessons in the history. Key Words : Macro2modulation ; economy grow ;economic fluctuation JEL Classification : E210,E300,O110 Marketization Index for China s Provinces Fan Gang,Wang Xiaolu &Others (National Bureau of Economic Research,Beijing) The Marketization Index for China s Provinces,as reported in this paper,is an empirical instrument for the analysis of correlation between the institutional changes and economic performance,and a policy2research tool in promotion of market2oriented reforms with the refernece to the regional difference in practices. This paper explains that,based on the statistic and survey data on five ma2 in aspects and 23 indicators,using the Main Component Analysis as the basic econometric method,the Index is composed with solid scientific foundation,enriched information,and can be used as an institutional variable in many theoretical and policy stud2 ies. Key Words : Marketization ;regional difference,empirical study JEL Classification :P250,C820,O110 Chinese Development Strategy and Economic Convergence Lin Yifu &Liu Peilin (CCER,Peking University) This paper argues that the regional income gap of China is mainly due to the non2viability of enterprises caused by over2capital2in2 tensity which is not matched to the endowment structure. Empirical research is consistent with this hypothesis. Key Words : Viability ; Economic Convergence ;Regional Incomes Gap JEL Classification :P200,P250 89