Exploring the World of Growth and Development
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1 Exploring the World of Growth and Development Ping Wang Department of Economics Washington University in St. Louis January 2018
2 1 A. The Big Picture 1. Long Term Development of the World Economy Five ancient empires: Greek empire ( BC) Egyptian empire ( BC) Babylonian empire ( BC) Chinese empire (2852BC-1911) Indian empire (3300BC-1818) The rise of Europe: o Roman empire (753BC-1461) o Spanish empire ( ) o Dutch empire ( ) o British empire ( ) o German empire ( ) The rise of America (1776-now)
3 World development since 1000: 2
4 World development since mid-19 th century: 3
5 4 A closer look at 5 representative economies since 1600: Note: Sustainable growth in real income per capita only started 1780.
6 2. The Post-WWII Era 5
7 6 B. Cross-Country Study of Economic Growth 1. Overview Distribution of world real GDP per capita
8 Cross-country growth experiences compared (Temple 1999) 7
9 Growth miracles and disasters ( ) 8
10 9 2. Determinants of Economic Growth: Using neoclassical theory as an organizing framework, Jones-Manuelli (1997) and Boldrin-Chen-Wang (2004) provided comprehensive surveys on the sources of per capita real income/output growth The determinants of economic growth: o physical capital accumulation: saving, investment o labor force growth: labor participation o human capital enhancement: education (years of schooling), learning by doing, job training o population growth (a negative factor): fertility choice o total factor productivity (TFP): R&D and technology invention, imitation, and adoption o other factors: trade (final goods, intermediate goods) institutions finance geography urbanization policy (monetary, fiscal)
11 10 Capital Accumulation and Growth Country I/Y (%) Y i /Y US *100 (1990) Y i /Y i (%) Country H Index Y i /Y US *100 (1990) Y i /Y i (%) U.S U.S Algeria Argentina Zambia Philippines Guyana Korea Japan New Zealand Singapore Norway
12 Physical capital: 11
13 Human capital: 12
14 Population growth: 13
15 14 TFP growth: TFP growth versus per capita real GDP growth JAP IRE ICE FIN AUS GRE NOR GER POR ITA BEL SPA DEN,UK FRA AUL,SWE NEZ SWI CAN US per capita real GDP growth
16 15 R&D SWE JAP SWI US FIN FRA GER NED UK DEN NOR AUL BEL CAN AUS NEZ IRE ITA SPA GRE POR ICE per capita real GDP growth
17 Trade 16
18 Institutions democracy and IP protection 17
19 Finance 18
20 Geography 19
21 Urbanization 20
22 3. Economic growth, consumption and life expectancy 21
23 22 4. Have rich countries suffered growth slowdown? Growth rate versus initial level of development
24 23 The concept of convergence and conditional convergence Convergence in per capita real GDP (Baumol-Barro): o β-convergence: the higher the initial per capita real GDP is, the lower the per capita real GDP growth will be o σ-convergence: the variance of cross-country per capita real GDP is decreasing over time Problems: o Galton Fallacy (regression toward the mean) o Twin-peak hypothesis (Quah 1996) o Endogeneity problems o Measurement errors
25 24 C. Why Formal Theory Matters? Formal theory can help: organizing the stylized facts observed explaining causal relationships offering economic predictions drawing policy implications D. Basic Technical Tools To build up formal theory of growth and development, basic technical tools include: simple calculus simple algebra basic diagrammatic analysis, including particularly, preferences, technologies, demand-supply analysis, atemporal constrained optimization and intertemporal constrained optimization
26 25 E. Fundamental Growth and Development Theory 1. Exogenous neoclassical growth theory Neoclassical revolution: Solow-Swan model Optimal growth: Ramsey/Cass-Koopman model 2. Endogenous growth theory AK model: von Neumann/Rebelo/Romer/Barro model Human capital based growth: Nelson-Phelps/Uzawa/Lucas model Innovation based Shumpeterian growth: Arrow/Shell/Wan/Aghion- Howitt model 3. Big push theory Rosenstein-Rodan Murphy-Shleifer-Vishny 4. Staged development theory Lewis/Rostow/Tsiang Gollin-Parente-Rogerson
Exploring the World of Growth and Development
Exploring the World of Growth and Development Ping Wang Department of Economics Washington University in St. Louis January 2018 1 Data source: Acemoglus (2009), Aghion-Howitt (2009), Jones (1998, 2015)
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