Country review Estonia

Transcription

1 Country review Estonia Alla Shogenova 1, Kazbulat Shogenov 1, Raisa Pomeranceva 2, Filip Neele 3, Chris Hendriks 4 1 Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia, alla@gi.ee 2 Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency, Latvia 3 TNO, The Netherlands 4 Ecofys International Bv

2 Large industrial CO 2 emissions in 2005/ in Estonia and Latvia registered by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Solid lines show the natural gas pipeline network. Million tonnes Number of sources 2005/2007 Share in all ETS emissions, % Estonia 11.5/14.5 9/9 91.3/94.6 Latvia 1.9/1.9 6/5 63.8/65.7

3 A total of of 9 large (emitting industrial more sources than of 0.1 CO2 million emissions, tonnes registered (Mt) of CO2) in 2005 industrial the EU sources Emission of Trading CO2 emissions, Scheme, registered produced in Mt of in CO2 the EU in Estonia. Emission Trading Scheme, produced 11.5 Mt of CO2 in Estonia. Large CO2 emission in Estonia is related to Large the oil CO2 shale emission used as in the Estonia main fuel is related for the to power the oil generation, shale used where as the the main two fuel largest for the Estonian power power generation, stations where Eesti the and two Balti largest produced Estonian respectively power 7.7 stations and 2.25 Eesti Mt of and CO2 Balti in 2005 produced and 9.4 respectively and 2.7 Mt of 7.7 CO2 and in Mt of CO2 in 2005 and 9.4 and 2.7 Mt of CO2 in 2007.

4 CO2 emission from oil shale combustion is significantly higher by comparison with other fossil fuels as energy sources. That is why CO2 emission per capita in Estonia is about two times higher than the average value in Europe and at 16th place in the World rate (2006 data). Large emissions produced in Estonian power sector are the highest in the Baltic region.

5 Depths of top of the Cambrian aquifer in the Baltic basin.. The P-T P T fields of gaseous and supercritical state of CO2 (P( = 73.8 bars, T = 31oC) are shown. The line of the geological cross-section section is indicated. Sliaupa et al, 2008 Shogenova et al, 2009 Geological cross-section section across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Major aquifers are indicated by dots. V Vendian (Ediacaran), Cm Cambrian, O Ordovician, S Silurian, D1, D2 and D3 Lower, Middle and Upper Devonian, P2 Middle Permian, T1 Lower Triassic, J Jurassic, K Cretaceous, Q Quaternary.

6 Top of the Precambrian basement is shown by contours. Flexures above the basement fault are shown by yellow lines

7 Section along Valga-Letipea line is modified after Puura & Vaher, seismic shortpoint, Q Quaternary, D Devonian, O Ordovician, C Cambrian, V Vendian, PR Palaeoproterozoic basement.

8 Major aquifers of sedimentary cover of Estonia. Hydrogeological cross-section section (modified after Perens & Valner, 1997).

9 Ordovician-Cambrian Aquifer System. (Compiled by R.Perens, 1997, prepared for GEOBALTICA project by Institute of Geology, Tartu University, edited for EU GEOCAPACITY project).

10 Conclusion Because of the shallow sedimentary basin and non-saline aquifers, Estonia has zero CO2 storage capacity.

11 Mineral trapping by oil shale ash in Estonia The concept for abatement of CO2 emissions in power production are based on oil shale ash as sorbent for CO2 mineralization (M. Uibu and R. Kuusik, 2007)

12 Mineral trapping by oil shale ash in Estonia Estonian oil shale is a carbonaceous fine-grained sedimentary rock of Ordovician age containing 10 60% kerogen (solid organic matter), 20 70% carbonates represented by limestone, or more rarely by dolomite, and 15 60% siliciclastic minerals. During combustion of one tonne of oil shale kg of ash is produced (in case of mineral coal only 100 kg of ash is produced).

13 Mineral trapping by oil shale ash in Estonia During combustion of oil shale CO2 is formed not only as a burning ng product of organic carbon, but also as a decomposition product of the carbonate part of ash, the total content of carbon dioxide increases up to 25% in flue gases of oil shale. Oil shale ash contains up to 20 25% 25% free Ca Mg oxides. Portlandite Ca(OH)2, forming from free lime during hydraulic transportation and wet deposition d of ash, can bind CO2 also from air. From the annual production of about 16.3 million tonnes of oil shale s in Estonia in 2007, 14.3 million tonnes (88%) was combusted for energy production. About 7 million tonnes of ash was produced in The maximum amount of CO 2 bound from flue gas can be estimated is about 10-12% of CO 2 emissions. Carbonates that formed as result of the binding process could be separated and used as independent by-product, but it would be more useful to store them in closed oil-shale mines. The latter solution will permit filling underground mining cavities and prevent environmental problems arising from ash heaps.

14 Estonian-Latvian source-transport transport- sink scenario Estonian-Latvian case study is only one cross- border study in EU GEOCAPACITY project. This is explained by zero CO2 storage capacity in Estonia and favourable for CO2 storage geological conditions in Latvia. The possibility of such case is proved by successful exploitation for about 40 years in Latvia Inĉukalns Underground Natural Gas Storage, supporting Estonia with natural gas when necessary.

15 South-Kandava Capacity 44 Mt CO2 Estonian-Latvian source- transport-sink sink scenario (oxyfuel capture) Capacity 40 Mt CO2 Eesti Power Plant Eesti Energia South- Kandava Balti Power Plant Eesti Energia Luku-Duku Luku-Duku

16 South Kandava These structures were determined by seismic investigations and studied by four (Luku-Duku) and five (South Kandava) boreholes. South Kandava is brachyanticlinal fold structure of north-eastern stretching located in the centre of Latvia. The south-eastern and north- western flanks of the brachyanticlinal fold are bounded by faults. Its area is about 69 km2, thickness of reservoir is m. The top of reservoir rocks represented by sandstones of the Middle Cambrian Deimena Formation located at the depth of 1053 m. They covered by argillaceous rocks of Lower Ordovician Zebrus Formation.

17 Luku-Duku Luku-Duku (Figure 3.6) is situated within the tectonically dislocated zone Saldus-Sloka Sloka- Inčukalns high. The Luku- Duku local high is near- fault brachyanticlinal fold. Its area is about 50 km2, thickness of reservoir rock is 45 m, their top depth is 1024 m. Reservoir rocks are represented by sandstones of Middle Cambrian Deimena Formation. They covered by argillaceous rocks of Lower Ordovician Zebrus Formation.

18 Summary of the input parameters for storage in the GeoCapacity DSS Model. Sink Name Luku-Duku South Kandava Depth (m) (from the earth surface) Current reservoir pressure (bar) Maximum reservoir pressure (bar) Reservoir radius (km) 8 5 Trap radius (km) 8 5 Reservoir thickness (m) Porosity (%) Net-gross (aquifers only) Reservoir temperature ( C) Permeability (md) > Well radius (m) Storage capacity (MtCO 2 ) in Geocapacity database Well injection rate (Mt/yr) 2 2 Storage efficiency factor (%) Aquifers : fraction of available total pore space 40 40

19 The total conservative capacity of two t anticlinal structures in Latvia in Cambrian aquifer is enough for about 8 and 11 years of the storage at two sites correspondingly. The negative aspect is a big distance of transportation by pipelines which is estimated as 800 km.

20 Transport Natural gas is imported into Estonia from Russia and is supported from the Inĉhukalns underground gas storage in Latvia. CO2 pipelines could be constructed along the available natural gas pipelines connecting Estonia and Latvia. The total distance to the structures along available pipelines route is about 800 km. The price for the pipelines construction calculated by DSS is mln EURO or 1.88 Euro per 1 tonne of CO2 avoided and could be constructed during three years. Pipelines construction could be provided by Latvian Gas and Estonian Gas companies.

21 Economic parameters for Estonian-Latvian source-transport transport-sink sink case study Indicator P90 value P50value P10value Mean value Unit NPV M NPV capture M NPV compression M NPV transport M NPV storage M NPV normalised /tco2avoided NPV capture normalised /tco2avoided NPV compression normalised /tco2avoided NPV transport normalised /tco2avoided NPV storage normalised /tco2avoided Internal Rate of Return % Unit technical cost /tco2 Pay out time yr Maximum exposure M SRC NPV capture M SRC NPV compression M SRC NPV capture M SRC NPV compression M SINK NPV storage M SINK NPV storage M

22 Left - total cost for capture. Right- capture cost for 1 t of CO2 avoided.

23 Left - total cost for CO2 storage. Right- storage cost for 1 t of CO2 avoided.

24 Left -total cost for scenario. Right - Technical cost for 1 t of CO2 avoided.

25 Estonian-Latvian source-transport transport- sink scenario For economic modelling by DSS two planned new blocks of Power Plants with expected capacity 300 MW each and annual CO2 emissions 7.7 and 3.3 Mt per year were taken. Total cost of the project is estimated by DSS as M M for 30 years. The cost of one tonne CO2 avoided 666,, from which 96.5% is oxyfuel capture (49 ) ) and compression costs (12 ). The total cost for transport (800 km) is 75 M. M The transport cost of one tonne CO2 avoided is 1.9. Storage cost for two sites together 14 M, M, of one tonne CO2 avoided is 0.35 Euro. For the present costs of CO2 the project is noneconomic.

26 Estonian-Latvian source-transport transport-sink sink scenario ways to decrease costs One power plant working for full capacity instead of two working partly Instead of oxyfuel capture technology apply post- combustion (the cheapest one) To find alternative (larger) storage site which will be enough for 30 years of storage (capacity of at least Mt). New geophysical and geological exploration is needed. Possibilities could be available at the south Baltic Sea.

27 General Conclusions Due to the utilization of oil shale for energy production, CO 2 emissions produced by the two largest Estonian power plants exceed the volume of CO 2 produced by all Lithuanian and Latvian stationary sources. The Baltic countries are situated within the Baltic sedimentary basin. Only Latvia has structural traps large enough to store the industrial CO 2 emissions. The capacity of 161 large uplifts exceeding 400 Mt is sufficient to hold Latvian CO 2 stationary emissions during 200 years of production.

28 Conclusions There is a considerable uncertainty in planning the future energy y policy in the Baltic countries. In 2009 the main Estonian Energy company Eesti Energia ordered from f IGTUT research CO2 geological storage in Estonia and neighbouring regions: analysis of options and storage recommendations.. Research was based on EU CCS durective and EU GeiCapacity project. Research was finished and presentation was made at the headquaters of Eesti Energia on 11 October Because of the economical crisis and low CO2 costs Eesti Energia changed their previous plans in July They decided to reconstruct old Power Stations instead d of building new ones and to construct Nuclear Power Station in 15 years. At the present time the political decision about construction of new capture ready Power stations should be taken by government of Estonia.

29 Some conclusion from research CO2 geological storage in Estonia and neighbouring regions: analysis of options and storage recommendations made for Eesti Energia company Situation with CO2 storage capacity in the Baltic Region and Scandinavia shows that the closest for Estonia option for CO2 storage onshore is available a in Latvia and most probable in the NW Russia (SE Novgorod Region and further to South and East). The structures of Latvia could be too small for 30 years of storage of Estonian CO2, while size of the Russian structures is not yet estimated, but expected to be large enough. Only the largest structures in Latvia could be taken into consideration. After additional geophysical and geological studies the size of some Latvian L structures could be re-estimated estimated to the greater size. The capacity of the structures offshore Norway are big enough for r storage of CO2 from the other countries. The negative aspect could be a large distance ( km) and a high cost of transportation by ships. Very prospective is cooperation with Russia in the field of Enhanced nced Oil Recovery. The capacity is big enough in the NW Russia excluding Kaliningrad d Region. EOR is the most economic option both for Estonia and Russia

30 Publication of GeoCapacity results 2009 Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Shogenov, K., Sliaupiene, R., Pomeranceva, R., Uibu, M. and Kuusik, R Possibilities for geological storage and mineral l trapping of industrial CO2 emissions in the Baltic region. Elsevier, The Netherlands. Energy Procedia 1(1), Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Shogenov, K., Sliaupiene, R., Pomeranceva, R., Vaher, R., Uibu, M. & Kuusik, R Challenges and Possible Solutions in the Baltic Region after Legislation of EU CCS Directive. 5th Congress of Balkan Geophysical Society/ Geophysics at the Cross-roads. roads. Extended Abstracts, CD. EAGE, The Netherlands Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Vaher, R., Shogenov, K., Pomeranceva,, R The Baltic Basin: structure, properties of reservoir rocks and capacity for geological storage of CO2. Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn. Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences 58(4), xx-xx. xx. Sliaupa, S., Lojka, R.,Tasáryov ryová,, Z., Kolejka, V., Hladik, V., Kotulova, J., Kucharic, L., Fejdi, V., Wójcicki, W A., Tarkowski, R., Uliasz-Misiak, B., Sliaupiene, R., Brikmane, B., Pomeranceva, R., Sadrina, T. & Shogenova, A Capacity for Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Central Europe: Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. 5th Congress of Balkan Geophysical Society/ Geophysics at the CrossC ross- roads. Extended Abstracts, CD. EAGE, The Netherlands Shogenova, A., Shogenov, K., Pomeranceva, R., Neele, F. & Hendriks, C CAPTURE TRANSPORT TRANSPORT STORAGE STORAGE SCENARIO OF CO2 EMISSIONS PRODUCED BY OIL-SHALE SHALE-BASED ENERGY INDUSTRY OF ESTONIA. International Oil Shale Symposium, June 2009, ABSTRACTS. Tallinn. 1p.

31 Publication of GeoCapacity results in 2008 Shogenova, A., Sliaupa S., Shogenov,K., Sliaupiene R., Pomeranceva, R., Uibu, M. and Kuusik, R CO2 geological storage and mineral trapping potential in the Baltic region. Dionyz Stur Publishers, Bratislava, Slovakia. Slovak Geological Magazine Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Shogenov, K., Sliaupiene, R., Pomeranceva, R., Uibu, M. and Kuusik, R Geological storage and mineral trapping of industrial CO2 emissions - prospects in the Baltic Region. First CO2 Geological Storage Workshop, September 2008, Budapest. Hungary, Extended Abstracts. EAGE, Houten,The Netherlands. A04, Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Shogenov, K., Sliaupiene, R., Zabele,, A. and Vaher, A Carbon dioxide geological storage potential of the t Baltic sedimentary basin. In: 3rd Saint Petersburg International Conference ence & Exhibition, April 2008, Extended Abstracts & Exhibitors` Catalogue. EAGE, Houten, The Netherlands. P132, Sliaupa, S., Shogenova, A., Shogenov, K., Sliaupiene, R., Zabele,, A. and Vaher, R Industrial carbon dioxide emissions and potential geological sinks in the Baltic States. Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn, Estonia. Oil Shale 25(4),

32 Publication of GeoCapacity results in 2007 Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Shogenov, K., Sliaupiene, R., Vaher, R., Zabele, A Geological storage of industrial CO2 emissions in the Baltic States: problems and prospects In: Hints, O. & Kaljo, D. (eds). Georesources rces and public policy: research, management, environment. Abstracts: 15th Meeting of the Association of European Geological Societes, September 2007, Tallinn, Estonia Geological Society of Estonia, Tallinn Shogenova, A., Sliaupa, S., Shogenov, K., Vaher, R., Sliaupiene, R Geological Storage of CO2 - Prospects in the Baltic States 69th EAGE Conference & Exhibition Incorporating SPE EUROPEC 2007, June 2007, London, Extended Abstracts [69th EAGE Conference & Exhibition Incorporating SPE EUROPEC 2007, June 2007, London, Extended Abstracts]. EAGE, Houten, The Netherlands. P228, Šogenova, A., Šliaupa S., Šogenov K. Vaher, R., Šliaupene R Süsinikudioksiidi industriaalsete emissioonide kaardistamine ja statistiline modelleerimine Balti riikides - CO2 sidumise ja ladustamise esimene etapp.. Verš, E., Amon, L. (eds) Mudelid ja modelleerimine. [Models and modeling]. Sulemees, Tartu. Schola Geologica 3, Šogenova, A., Šliaupa, S., Šogenov, K., Šliaupiene R., Vaher, R Põlevkivi roll CO2 emissioonis Balti piirkonnas [The role of oil shale in CO2 emissions e in the Baltic region.]. Estonian Combustible Natural Resources and Wastes 1-2, 27-28, 28, 47.