Challenging the Established Truths! Do the Rules of Thumb really rule?

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Garry Chapman
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1 Salvador Dali 1937 Challenging the Established Truths! Do the Rules of Thumb really rule? CHRIS PARRY UxP II More information? Please contact me via Linked In:

2 WHERE I VE WORKED AND WHAT I D LIKE TO SHARE WITH YOU

WHERE I VE WORKED AND WHAT I D LIKE TO SHARE WITH YOU Britannia (Lower Cretaceous stratigraphic trap found by accident while appraising M Jurassic) Miller (Upper Jurassic combination structural

3 WHERE I VE WORKED AND WHAT I D LIKE TO SHARE WITH YOU Britannia (Lower Cretaceous stratigraphic trap found by accident while appraising M Jurassic) Miller (Upper Jurassic combination structural stratigraphic trap found deliberately) Tertiary Deepwater Gulf of Mexico/DW Niger delta (very prolific lowstand reservoirs) Onshore Niger Delta elephant hunting for lowstand reservoirs below existing fields Shelfal Angola salt basin, siliclastic/carbonate reservoirs/cretaceous Source Rock distribution

4 VOLUME HYDROCARBONS # NEW FIELD WILDCATS Creaming Curve

VOLUME HYDROCARBONS Play-based Portfolio

5 VOLUME HYDROCARBONS Play-based Portfolio Replenishment UNPROVEN (BLUE SKY) BREAKTHROUGH GROWTH PLATEAU HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD Work program & strategy to address reducible risk(s) MODERATE RISK/HIGH REWARD LOW RISK/LOW REWARD # NEW FIELD WILDCATS

6 What is truth? Salvador Dali 1937 Black swan theory: an event that comes as a complete surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. These disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. It is our job to look for these outliers in the subsurface.

7 What is truth? Salvador Dali 1937 A lie repeated often enough becomes the truth: Joseph Stalin ( ), Joseph Goebbels ( ). As a consequence of two Black Swan events in global politics this year, the Oxford English dictionary international word of the year for 2016 is: Post truth (facts don t matter). Lies, damn lies and statistics: Robert Giffen ( President of the Statistical Society): There are liars, there are outrageous liars, and there are scientific experts. Model driven interpretations: Data doesn t matter.

Edmund Burke (1729 1797) "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness.

8 Salvador Dali 1937 Truth the importance of look backs! Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. Edmund Burke ( ) "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness...those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana ( ) Learn from history or you're doomed to repeat it. Jesse "The Body" Ventura ( )

9 Learn from history or you're doomed to repeat it. - published industry look backs West of Shetlands Kuwait UK Continental Shelf DW Gulf of Mexico

10 time SEQUENCE SEQUENCE STRATIGRAPHY Modified and simplified after Catuneanu et al, Sequence Stratigraphy: Methodology and Nomenclature, Newsletters on Stratigraphy, 44/3, DEPOSITIONAL SEQUENCE I DEPOSITIONAL SEQUENCE II DEPOSITIONAL SEQUENCE III DEPOSITIONAL SEQUENCE IV GENETIC SEQUENCE TRANSGRESSIVE /REGRESSIVE STAGES & events Mitchum et al. (1977) Haq et al. (1987) Posamentier et al. (1988) Van Wagoner et al. (1988, 90) Christie-Blick (1991) Hunt & Tucker (1992, 95) Helland-Hansen & Gjelberg (1994) Frazier (1974) Galloway (1989) Johnson & Murphy (1984) Embry & Johannessen (1992) HIGHSTAND NORMAL REGRESSION early end of Transgression MFS TRANSGRESSION a.k.a. CS (Condensed Section) source rock deposition end of Regression MRS LOWSTAND NORMAL REGRESSION late (wedge) late (wedge) end of Relative Sea Level fall CC 99 FORCED REGRESSION early (fan) late FALLING STAGE early (fan) onset of Relative Sea Level fall CC 92 HIGHSTAND NORMAL REGRESSION early SEQUENCE BOUNDARIES MFS: Maximum Flooding Surface MRS: Maximum Regressive Surface CC 99: Correlative Conformity (Posementier & Allen, 1999) CC 92: Correlative Conformity (Hunt & Tucker, 1992) BOUNDARIES & surfaces SEQUENCE SYSTEMS TRACTS intra-sequence intra-systems tract HIGHSTAND LOWSTAND SYSTEMS TRACTS TRANSGRESSIVE REGRESSIVE RELATIVE SEA LEVEL CURVE onset fall end fall end regression time end transgression

11 k years Before Present EEMIAN Warm Period kBP

MILANKOVITCH CYCLICITY SEEN IN BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA AND ICE CORES 200-130k years Before Present EEMIAN Warm Period 130-115kBP

12 MILANKOVITCH CYCLICITY SEEN IN BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA AND ICE CORES k years Before Present EEMIAN Warm Period kBP EEMIAN Warm Period kBP

HIGHSTAND SYSTEMS TRACTS GLACIAL LOWSTAND SYSTEMS TRACTS EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL: TEMPERATURES NOT DUE TO MANKIND!

14 BALTICA (TOGETHER WITH BARENTS SEA, MID-NORWAY AND NORTH SEA) HAS BEEN LOADED AND UNLOADED/UPLIFTED AT REGULAR INTERVALS THROUGHOUT THE PLIO-PLEISTOCENE (14 TIMES ON ICE CORE DATA BELOW - 31 GLACIATIONS RECOGNIZED TO DATE), MAYBE LONGER INTER-GLACIAL HIGHSTAND SYSTEMS TRACTS GLACIAL LOWSTAND SYSTEMS TRACTS EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL: TEMPERATURES NOT DUE TO MANKIND!!! GLACIAL UNLOADING: MOST RECENT UPLIFT OF BALTICA (BARENTS SEA AND MID NORWAY/NORTH SEA) OWC TILTING & OIL SPILL (FOLLOW THE MOLECULES!) RELATIVE SEA LEVEL CURVE

HAVE YOU EVER BEEN ON A MULTI-DISCIPLINE FIELD TRIP?

ECONOMIST IS ALMOST NEVER INVITED BECAUSE HE/SHE IS ONLY INTERESTED IN THE PROBABILITY OF COMMERCIAL SUCCESS/VALUE SO

IN AN EXOTIC LOCATION AGAINST SOME INTERESTING SEDIMENTARY ARCHITECTURES THE GEOPHYSICIST: THAT S IRRELEVENT THE SANDS

15 HAVE YOU EVER BEEN ON A MULTI-DISCIPLINE FIELD TRIP? THE RESERVOIR ENGINEER: YOU VE BOTH MISSED THE POINT ONE OF MY GRID CELLS IS BIGGER THAN THIS ENTIRE OUTCROP THE ECONOMIST IS ALMOST NEVER INVITED BECAUSE HE/SHE IS ONLY INTERESTED IN THE PROBABILITY OF COMMERCIAL SUCCESS/VALUE SO THE PROSPECT CAN BE PLOTTED AGAINST ALL THE OTHERS IN THE PORTFOLIO THE GEOLOGIST WANTS TO PHOTOGRAPH HIS/HER HAMMER IN AN EXOTIC LOCATION AGAINST SOME INTERESTING SEDIMENTARY ARCHITECTURES THE GEOPHYSICIST: THAT S IRRELEVENT THE SANDS ARE BELOW TUNING THICKNESS SO WE CAN T IMAGE THEM Adapted from Buckley et al., Terrestrial laser scanning for use in virtual outcrop geology. The Photogrammetric Record 25(131):

LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS PEER REVIEW

QUESTIONED MAPPING OF FAULTS (#1 & FIRST PRIORITY

16 LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS PEER REVIEW ANALYSIS PARALYSIS THE SIZE AND SHAPE OF THE CONTAINER ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT VOLUMETRIC FACTORS BASIN MODELING BLACK BOX ASSUMPTIONS NEVER QUESTIONED MAPPING OF FAULTS (#1 & FIRST PRIORITY PREVIOUSLY) SEEMS TO BE A LOST ART TODAY IF DONE, AS AN AFTER THOUGHT

17 DON T TELL ME WHY IT DOESN T WORK, TELL ME HOW TO MAKE IT WORK! Pratt (1952) "we must maintain, at all times, an acute awareness of what we do not know. If unconciously we identify the unkown with the unfavourable, and if we explore only in the areas we know to be favourable, we will leave undiscovered many oil fields." Cagle (1985) "Let us presume that an area is favourable until we have really proved it to be unfavourable." THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE! WHAT MAKES A GOOD HYDROCARBON EXPLORER? Dailly (2016) "An open mind is probably the most important thing, so you are not caught up in the conventional wisdom as to why some things have worked and others failed. Focus, play to your key strengths and avoid following the pack." More information? Please contact me via Linked In:

Introduction to sequence stratigraphy and its application to reservoir geology

Introduction to sequence stratigraphy and its application to reservoir geology Massimo Zecchin Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS Historical development Definitions Systems