The impact of global climate change on natural disasters related to the water

Transcription

1 The impact of global climate change on natural disasters related to the water HOMIDOV ANVAR TAJIKISTAN СГЯ

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3 Content Change of temperature and precipitation in Central Asia; Dangerous hydro meteorological anomaly and its volatility; Warning and reduction of disaster risks

4 Global Climate Change

5 Changes in annual average temperature in CA atmosphere Kazakhstan ºС in mountains for 0.18 ºС Kyrgyzstan ºС Tajikistan ºС in mountains for ºС Uzbekistan ºС Turkmenistan 0.6 ºС

6 Changes in annual average temperature in the atmosphere of Central Asia In accordance with the data received from hydrometeorological centers of Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, climate change in the area of Aral sea is due to raise of temperature in the atmosphere on earth to the level of 700 gpa Repeated peaks of raise in temperature approximately 11, 5-6, years were revealed. It is possible that 11 year period is due to sun activity cycle, 5-6 year period refers to the El-Nino cycle, and year of peaks has to do with the quasi two year cycle;

7 Change of precipitation The analysis of changes in annual sum of precipitation demonstrates insignificant raise (in average of 8%) in the territory of 2500 and slight decrease (3%) in high mountainous areas. Increase of precipitation is more observed in summer and autumn in the area of 2500 m (37-90%), mainly because of episodes of heavy rain falls; In accordance with the data received from Kazakhstan stations for the period of years in the area of Aral sea (in 7 out of 10 stations) the frequency of precipitation for 10 and 20 mm per day has increased as well as the intensity of the rainfalls.

8 Anomaly of annual sum of precipitation averaged in regional stations of Aral Sea of Kazakhstan Аномалии осадков холодного полугодия,% Ряд1- Аномалии осадков холодного полугодия Ряд2- Сглаженный ряд % 20 0 Ряд1 Ряд год

9 Change in the frequency of precipitation for the period of years.

10 Dangerous Hydro-meteorological Anomaly For the past 50 years 1060 of mudflows and 18 high floods has been registered in Tajikistan. The annual average number of mudflows in the rivers of Tajikistan reaches 21 mudflows per year. The biggest number of times of mudflows per year has been registered in 1987, which reached 86 mudflows, in 1998 for 71times, in times, in times and in times of mudflows. Uzbekistan - The annual average number of mudflows in the rivers of Uzbekistan equaled to 22mudflows per year. The biggest number of times of mudflows per year has been registered in 1930 year -167 times if mudflows, in times, in times, in times and in 1993 year- 64 times of mudflows. The most dangerous mudflow periods in Republic of Uzbekistan were in years, and the less dangerous periods were in years,, and ; годы.

11 Dangerous Hydro-meteorological Anomaly For the past 25 year in there have been registered 257 mudflows and 126 floods in Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan catastrophic mudflows fell in 1921, 1947, 1950, 1956, 1958, 1963, 1973, 1977, 1982, 1988 and 1999 years, six of them were caused by breakthrough of sea lakes. In accordance with the made prognosis based on statistics, the frequency of mudflows in the northern downhill of Zail Alatau may increase up to times toward the mid of 21 century

12 Number of mudflows in the territory of Kyrgyzstan for years Количество селей на территории Кыргызстана за период гг y = 0,3437x + 6, Количество селей Годы

13 Dangerous hydro-meteorological Mudflows anomaly

14 Changes in the frequency of mudflows at various scenarios of warming ºС; ; 2 2 ºС; ; 3 2,8ºС. Kazakhstan Относительная селевая акти вн ость Годы Typical picture of high mountainous zones of Zail Alatau after rainfalls in summer season

15 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly Avalanches In accordance with the made estimation and a map by Uzbek hydromet, the formation of avalanches per year take place on the altitude of 2000m, 3-53 avalanches per year from 2300 m, 6-7 avalanches per year from 2300m. Worthy to note that in present time in these altitudes in the multi- years average of 11 avalanches is being formed. In Tajikistan, in the average 16 avalanches is being formed per year. For the past 50 years there are 1000 snow-slides slides have been registered in Tajikistan. Annually on the mountains of Kazakhstan a thousand of snow-slides slides with the various size of from a 100 to 10 thousands cubic meters fall down. In snowy years up to 100 thousand cubic meters is snow-slides slides may fall down.

16 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly Avalanches in Tajikistan:

17 Repeating numbers of avalanches in Kyrgyzstan territory Повторяемость количества лавин на территории Кыргызстана в период гг. по данным снеголавинных станций Чон-Ашуу, Тео-Ашуу, Ит-Агар y = 6,0636x + 64, Количество лавин Годы

18 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly Snow covering Snow cover on the mountains of Central Asia play an important role for the water inflow of rivers and hydrological cycles; The snow storage in the coldest period of a year significantly determines the volume of spring-summer summer inflow to the reservoirs, which makes the vegetation inflow.

19 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly Snow Coverage

20 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly Glaciers The total area of glaciers in Central Asia and Afghanistan: Tajikistan- 6-8% Kyrgyzstan- 3.3% Kazakhstan- 0.4% Uzbekistan- 0.1% Afghanistan - 0.5% territory of the country Glaciers play main role in water formation in Amu- Darya, and Sir-Darya rivers, which are the biggest water arteries of central Asia and Aral basin.

21 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly For the past 50 years, Tyan-Shyan glaciers have lost 15% or its area size and 22% of its volume; Glaciers in Tajikistan have lost 15-20% Glaciers in Afghanistan 50-75% of its area size;

22 Research on Glaciers 2 nd International polar year and Tajik-Pamirian expedition in г Regular inspection of glaciers by hydro meteorological services First expedition on glaciers of Tajikistan for the years of independence in glaciers we inspected for Medvejiy, RGO, Akbaytal, GGP, Dehkandara, Fedchenko and Yakarcha Starting from 2001, regular inspection of Snow-storage and glaciers take place by helicopters

23 Dangerous hydro-meteorological anomaly Озеро на леднике Бывачный

24 Thanks You for Your Attention ajikistan, Dushanbe, Chevshenko st. 47 Agency of Hydrometeorogy