Future opportunities and challenges in seismology. James&Wookey
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1 Future opportunities and challenges in seismology James&Wookey
2 DEEP EARTH IMAGING Seismology&provides&the&most&direct& method&of&observing&the&deep&earth. Rich&wavefield&of&different&phases. Raypaths&of&different&phases&sample& 0 b different®ions&of&the&mantle&and& core. P Pdiff 180 S S ScS Minor arc S3KS PcP P4KP 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 b T-component displacement data ScSScSScS sscsscs ScSScS sscs ScS S Love SSSS SSS SS ssdiff Sdiff Major arc 500 PKP PKP BC AB DF PKiKP PKIIKP SKP AB BC PKS PKKP Distance (degrees) [Lay&and&Garnero,&2011]
3 GLOBAL TOMOGRAPHY Global&tomography&is&the& workhorse &of&deep&earth&seismic& imaging Allows&us&to&make&volumes&of& seismic&velocity Burgeoning&data&volume&is& (incrementally)&improving& tomographic&images&of&the&deep& Earth Also&new&algorithms&(finiteA frequency&sensicvity&kernels),& though&impact&of&these&is&uncertain Apparent&improvements&in& resolucon& &features&that&appeared& uniform&have&a&more&subtle& structure S40RTS&Ritsema&et&al&(2010) [Ritsema&et&al,&2010]
4 LLSVPS S40RTS [Davies&et&al,&2012] Even%on%these%scales,%there%are% unanswered%first%order% ques4ons. LLSVPs&are&clearly&a&major& structural&feature&in&the&mantle.& However,&their&role&in&the& dynamics&of&the&mantle&is¬&so& obvious: Thermal&phenomena&(superplumes&or& plume&clusters)?&[davies&et&al,&2012] AcCve&dynamically No&longAterm&chemical&reservoir Dense&thermochemical&piles? Mantle& anchors &(long&lived,&fixed& posicon)&[dziewonski&et&al,&2006] Sequestered&reservoir A. B. Fig. 5. Shear wave velocity perturbations beneath Africa from: (a) tomogra the dense chemical component represents only 3% of the mantle volum composition, whilst the thermo-chemical model illustrated here assumes chemical component. The structure of a thermo-chemical model with a bas and damping inherent to tomographic models using the resolution opera models and S40RTS. All images include a radial surface at 2850-km dept features. Continental boundaries are included for geographic reference.
5 LLSVP IMAGING [Wang&and&Wen,&2007] [Ni&et&al,&2005]
6 SEISMIC MODELLING Complex&structures&necessitate&fullA waveform&syntheccs. [e.g.,&specfem3d;&komacsch&and&tromp,&2002] Require'waveforms'at'~5s'period. (Very)&CPU&intensive 10sA100s&kCPU&hours Community&developed/supported&codes. Courtesy&of&Heiner&Igel S SdS ScS &[Nowacki&et&al,&AGU,&2013].
7 UPPER MANTLE IMAGING USArray 2004T2018;&Backbone&+& moving&ta currently&occupying& easternmost&footprint;& moving&to&alaska&next. >50TB&data&so&far.& Automated'processing: Example:&SKS&spli^ng Illumina_ng&upper&mantle& dynamics JF 15.8 NA 28.6 Vs [%] at 150 km depth PA 71.4 NA 34.2 Figure This study Convergent HS3 NUVEL1a Divergent 4 s delay time Previous Transform APM (mm/yr) Station averaged shear wave splitting results plotted over tomographic V S slice &[Walpole&et&al,&in&review,&2014] at 150 km depth [Obrebski et al., 2011] for the western USA. Red and yellow bars indicate the
8 UPPER MANTLE IMAGING Ambient'noise'tomographic' imaging. Seismology&without& earthquakes. Correlate&ambient&noise& between&sta_ons Correlograms&can&be& interpreted&as&surface&waves High&resolu_on&crustal/upper& mantle&imaging. 5s 20s [Ekström,&2014]
9 UK FRACTURE-STIMULATION INDUCED SEISMICITY Shale&gas&extrac_on&has&very& significant&economic&poten_al& for&the&uk. Also,&extremely&poli_cally& sensi_ve. Blackpool'Earthquakes. Traffic'light 'system. M0.5+&cease&opera_ons Very&challenging&detec_on& threshold&(bgs>m2.0). Must&be&done&in&real&_me. Background&seismicity?
10 PLANNED UK ARRAY EXTENSIONS Current&UK&network¬& sufficient&for&these&purposes Extend&coverage&with&a&rolling& 20&instrument&TA Focussed&network&for®ions& of&interest First&patch&is&NW&England& (Bowland&Shale) S_ll&lots&of&work: Methodologies&for&event& detec_on,&classifica_on Uncertain_es. Click'to'edit'Master'text' styles
11 INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES: DATA Very'large'volumes'of'data. Many'networks'report'to'a' central'data'repository'(e.g.,' ORFEUS). S_ll&some&gaps. Lots'of'redundant'effort'in' current'pracaces. QC/preTprocessing Data&collec_ons Provenance Publishing [Source:&ORFEUS] AVribuAon
12 INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES: DATA II Ambient&noise&has&some&special& challenges Very%large&data&volumes. I/O&intensive&processing Many&HPC&resources&poorly&suited. PossibiliCes Datacentre&links&to&HPC&infrastructure. Nature&of&connecCon? Commercial& cloud &HPC&providers. HPC Centre Seismic DC HPC Centre Seismic DC End&user 1 Current End&user 2 End&user 1 Poten4al End&user 2
13 INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES: CODE Complex&structure&and&large&data&requires& expensive&wf&modelling. Homebrew &code&becoming&insufficient/risky. Integrity/reproducibility Complexity. Computa_onal&burden. Drive&for&efficient&use&of&expensive&resources. Community &open&source&codes&(e.g.,&cig) Robust/benchmarked Version&control Amribu_on
14 Seismic'future'is'bright! Extremely&data&rich. New&techniques&and&HPC& illumina_ng&interes_ng& problems. Challenges'to'overcome Dealing&with&our&new&wealth Opportuni_es&for&modifying& our¤t&prac_ces. CooperaAve'approach' necessary Role&for&coordina_ng&bodies,& projects CONCLUSIONS [JRR&Tolkien]
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