Weaning Age ReVisited

Transcription

1 Weaning Age ReVisited Dr Mike Varley BSc PhD FIBiol CBiol R.Nutr.

2 Menu Menu Weaning age The last 30 years Weaning age The biology Weaning age The economics Weaning age The future

3 30 years production The last 30 years the halcyon days for the global swine industry (or prior to 1997!) A perceived need to maximise Annual Sow Productivity Short weaning age is an easy route to 28 piglets per sow per year This gives a high farrowing index 2.6 litters per sow per year The cost structure seems to be the same at low weaning ages Feed and other raw materials were cheap - cereals, soya bean milk powders, fish meals, oils, vitamins Pork and pig prices were relatively high Disease status has been generally good but variable Fixed costs interest charges, housing and labour have been relatively low

4 Europe What happened in Europe Weaning Age (days) EU legislation weaning shall not be less than 28 days unless under veterinary guidance EU

5 Europe What happened in Europe UK - 28 days some still operating at days Denmark days France days Spain 21 days to 28 days Germany 28 days plus Sweden 35 days plus Switzerland 35 days plus

6 Practical Implications We have the technology! The Pig Technology Company Ltd. Consultancy Knowledge Transfer Innovation

7 Later Weaning plus extensive production a profitable niche? Some later weaning systems fit well with niche markets demanding organic production, high welfare with extensive production systems and later weaning

8 Practical Implications Early Weaning Less farrowing places Easy on the sow (??) More productivity Reduced sow feed costs Increased piglet feed costs Reduced sow reproduction Bigger drug bill Difficult to rear piglets (??) Need high quality staffing Later Weaning More farrowing places Harder on the sow Less physical productivity Increase sow feed costs Decreased piglet feed costs Better sow reproduction Lower drug bill Easy piglet rearing (??) Staff quality not so critical Consumer / supermarket acceptability

9 The Mathematics Many large-scale swine production companies simply do the mathematics but don t understand the physiology!! Annual Sow Production = Litter Size x Farrowing Index Farrowing Index (litter per sow per year) = 365/Farrowing Interval Farrowing Interval = (115 days + Lactation Length + Empty days)

10 The Simple Mathematics 35 day weaning ASP = 10.8 x (365/( ) = 25.1pigs/sow/year 21 day weaning ASP = 10.8 x (365/( ) = 27.5 pigs/sow/year 16 day weaning ASP = 10.8 x (365/( ) = 28.7 pigs/sow/year The accountants decision is therefore to wean early and spread fixed costs

11 The Evidence And The Reality Days IWO IWO = EXP(2.16-(0.0079*WA) Interval Weaning to Oestrus Weaning Age (days) IWO = EXP(2.16-(0.0079*WA) The weaning to oestrus interval increases and is more variable with earlier weaning

12 The Evidence And The Reality Conception Rate % Conception Rate % Weaning Age (days) The conception rate decreases and is more variable with earlier weaning

13 The Evidence And The Reality Litter Size (born alive)) Litter Size (born alive) Weaning Age (days) The litter size decreases and is more variable with earlier weaning

14 There are lots of published data Ovulation Rates Weaning Age Ovulation Rate Embryo Survival Weaning Age ES% Source Varley & Cole 1976

15 The Evidence And The Reality Piglets Per Sow Per Year ANNUAL SOW PRODUCTIVITY Weaning Age (days) Sow productivity is maximised at 21 day weaning!!

16 BUT: WHAT ABOUT FINANCIAL PRODUCTIVITY

17 The final solution may be quite different for every industry around the world The final solution may also differ from farm to farm and dependent on cost-structure The final solution may also change over time

18 Simulation Modeling Can Help Find The Optimal Solution HERD PERFORMANCE DATA HERD PERFORMANCE DATA Actual Estimate WEANING AGE (days) NUMBER OF SOWS IN HERD INTERVAL WEANING TO OESTRUS (d.) % ANOESTRUS SOWS % CONCEPTION RATE LITTER SIZE (born alive) DAYS FROM WEANING TO CULLING % SOWS NON PREGNANT AT TERM 1 2 DAYS TO CULLING FOR N.P SOWS % ANNUAL GILTS REPLACED % Mortality Pre-weaning % Mortality Post-weaning ANNUAL SOW PRODUCTIVITY (p/s/y) born alive

19 Simulation Modeling Can Help FINANCIAL RESULTS FINANCIAL INPUTS Annual Wage Costs per person Interest Rate % 6 COSTS OF PRODUCTION Feed Costs per sow Feed cost per pig Pre-Starter 2.64 Feed cost per pig Starter 4.25 Feed cost per piglet Stage II Total feed cost per sow/year Total other variable costs Total Replacement Costs Replacemtn Costs/Sow Total Per Sow Per Piglet Total Variable Costs

20 Simulation Modeling Can Help HERD ANALYSIS Annual Sow Productivity born alive Annual Sow Productivity at weaning Annual Sow Productivity at sale Revenue per sow per year Variable Costs per sow Fixed costs per sow Gross margin per sow Herd size 1000 sows Total Capital required per sow Labour 7 men Net profit per sow Labour Costs 120,000 Return on capital % Variable Costs per 100 output 90.56

21 Simulation Modeling Can Help BUILDING REQUIREMENTS No Required Cost/unit Total Cost Farrowing Pens Dry Sow P Service Area Pens Boar Pens Weaner Pens Gilt Pens Offices etc Total Costs of Buildings Depreciation over 10 years Annual Depreciation Charge Annual Interest Charge on Fixed Capital Annual Interest on Working Capital Labour costs Electricity etc Valuation Sows Gilts 9523 Food Weaners Total TOTAL FIXED COSTS TOTAL CAPITAL DEPLOYED

22 Simulation Modeling Can Help Weaning Age= 21 Creep Feed to 24 FEED INT AKE PER PIGLET Kg/day Age at sale = 131 Age DM Milk Creep/Link Days intake Intake21 FCR DLWG kg/dweight kg Tot DMI Detailed modeling of early growth for pre and postweaned piglets This gives day on day feed intake prediction, FCR and average daily gain accrued

23 Simulation Modeling Can Help Days DM Intake Days Days of Age

24 Results Using Multi-Simulation Runs Against Weaning Age UK price structure 2007 Cost Per Kg Liveweight Gain /kg gain Weaning Age (days)

25 Results Using Multi-Runs Against Weaning Age Gross Margin Per piglet Produced - maximised day weaning Margin Per Piglet per piglet Weaning Age (days)

26 Results Using Multi-Runs Against Weaning Age Financial Gross Margin Per Sow GM / Sow GM /sow Weaning Age (days)

27 Results Using Multi-Runs Against Weaning Age Return On capital Invested 2007 All negative!! Return On Investment % % ROI Weaning Age (days)

28 2009 Prices Gross Margin Per Sow

29 2009 Prices Cost Per Kg Gain 2007 Prices Cost Per Kg Liveweight Gain /kg gain Weaning Age (days) 2009 Prices

30 2009 Prices Return On Investment % 2007 Prices Return On Investment % % ROI Weaning Age (days) 2009 Prices

31 Summary USA 2007 US$ Cost/kg Margin Per Pig ROI% Weaning Age (days)

32 Summary Brazil 2007 Brazil Riel Weaning Age (days) Cost/kg Margin Per Pig ROI% The ratio of feed cost index to pork price is the best determinant

33 Conclusions Farming businesses need to continually review their weaning age is it optimised? Weaning age will have a marked effect on the financial output of the business optimisation is essential Weaning age will change over time Weaning age physically cannot be changed in the short term too easily but in the medium to long term this can be done. Weaning later seems to be the optimal solution for now also means more consumer acceptability, cheaper housing costs overall and easier management and nutrition. Just ask the Swedes!!

34 Thank You All For Your Attention