Exploring the effect of temperature change on the spatial distribution of benthic species with an IBM-DEB model
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1 Exploring the effect of temperature change on the spatial distribution of benthic species with an IBM-DEB model Yoann THOMAS, Alain Ménesguen, Cédric Bacher C. gigas, Bay of Brest 48 N
2 Effects of seawater warming on marine organisms Individual Physiological performances (growth, reproduction) Phenology (timing of ontogenic transitions) Biogeography (distribution) Community composition (biodiversity) Ecosystem
3 Effects of seawater warming on marine organisms Individual Physiological performances (growth, reproduction) Phenology (timing of ontogenic transitions) Biogeography (distribution) Community composition (biodiversity) Ecosystem How to better understand the underlying processes? in order to anticipate future consequences on population distribution
4 Functional trait based species distribution model Mechanistic Spatially-explicit Dynamic Species bioclimatic range Time-series GIS Environmental data Realized distribution
5 Functional trait based species distribution model Mechanistic Spatially-explicit Dynamic Species bioclimatic range Biotic interactions Dispersal model Time-series GIS Environmental data Disturbance model Abundance model Life-cycle Pop. dynamics Evolutionary change Scales Realized distribution
6 Functional trait based species distribution model Mechanistic Spatially-explicit Dynamic Species bioclimatic range Biotic interactions Dispersal model Time-series GIS Environmental data Disturbance model Abundance model Life-cycle Pop. dynamics Evolutionary change Scales Realized distribution
7 Area & benthic species studied Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Celtic Sea English Channel Bay of Biscay 500 km
8 Area & benthic species studied Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trend Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) English Channel Celtic Sea Bay of Biscay SST ( C year -1 )
9 Area & benthic species studied Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trend Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) CMIP5: L Hévéder et al. (2016) Celtic Sea English Channel Bay of Biscay SST ( C year -1 )
10 Area & benthic species studied Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) English Channel Key species Fishing / Aquaculture Biogeographic range Invasive «feral» sp. (C. gigas) Mytilus edulis Celtic Sea Crassostrea gigas Bay of Biscay Mytilus galloprovincialis
11 Area & benthic species studied Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) English Channel Key species Fishing / Aquaculture Biogeographic range Invasive «feral» sp. (C. gigas) Mytilus edulis Celtic Sea Crassostrea gigas Bay of Biscay Mytilus galloprovincialis
12 Area & benthic species studied Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) English Channel Key species Fishing / Aquaculture Biogeographic range Invasive «feral» sp. (C. gigas) Mytilus edulis Celtic Sea Crassostrea gigas Bay of Biscay Mytilus galloprovincialis
13 Area & benthic species studied Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) English Channel Key species Fishing / Aquaculture Biogeographic range Invasive «feral» sp. (C. gigas) Mytilus edulis Celtic Sea Crassostrea gigas Bay of Biscay Mytilus galloprovincialis
14 Area & benthic species studied Biogeographic boundary Pectinaria koreni : Jolly et al (2005) Mytilidae: Hilbish et al. (2012) C. gigas: Thomas et al. (2016) Evidence of warming SST-satellite: Saulquin & Gohin (2010) English Channel Key species Fishing / Aquaculture Biogeographic range Invasive «feral» sp. (C. gigas) Mytilus edulis Celtic Sea Habitat selection Rocky-shore EUSeaMap - EMODNET* Crassostrea gigas Bay of Biscay Mytilus galloprovincialis *
15 Climatic scenarios Monthly mean over 15 years of remote-sensing observations (PIM, Chl-a) FOOD
16 Climatic scenarios Monthly mean over 15 years of remote-sensing observations (PIM, Chl-a) FOOD
17 Climatic scenarios Monthly mean over 15 years of remote-sensing observations (PIM, Chl-a) TEMPERATURE FOOD Two scenarios of monthly SST from RCP8.5 simulations (model CNRM-CM5) Reference Projected
18 Climatic scenarios Monthly mean over 15 years of remote-sensing observations (PIM, Chl-a) FOOD TEMPERATURE Two scenarios of monthly SST from RCP8.5 simulations (model CNRM-CM5) Reference Projected DEB-IBM population dynamics modelling OUTPUT Individual yearly growth Population growth rate (PGR) and reproductive traits over 45 years of simulation
19 Species-specific thermal tolerance Arrhenius response curves
20 Response of populations growth rate (PGR) to warming C. gigas M. edulis M. galloprovincialis
21 Response of populations growth rate (PGR) to warming C. gigas M. edulis M. galloprovincialis
22 Response of populations growth rate (PGR) to warming C. gigas M. edulis M. galloprovincialis
23 Response of populations growth rate (PGR) to warming C. gigas M. edulis M. galloprovincialis
24 Identification of biogeographic boundaries
25 Identification of biogeographic boundaries Shift in populations response Biogeographic boundary
26 Individual vs population response Nonlinearity between individual and population response
27 Reproductive traits C. gigas M. edulis M. galloprovincialis
28 Reproductive traits C. gigas Events nb M. edulis M. galloprovincialis Fecundity variation
29 Reproductive traits C. gigas Events nb Timing M. edulis M. galloprovincialis Fecundity variation Phenological shift
30 Take-home messages Effect of global warming on species biogeographic range (Winner/Loser) Polward extension of the species range and southward contraction for mussels Identification of a biogeographic boundary for mussels population growth potential Population niche vs. species thermal tolerance Nonlinearity between species tolerance and population response - Various environmental trajectories - Combining multiple stress (T C, food) Population response driven by reproductive traits Significant increase of reproductive potential for oysters Shifts in spawning phenology - Interaction between food & T C? (cf. Melaine s talk Thursday 10:00) - Conséquences on larval growth, dispersal & connectivity patterns?
31 Current work & Next steps Mechanistic Dynamic modelling Species bioclimatic range Biotic interactions Dispersal model Time-series GIS Environmental factors Disturbance model Abundance model Life-cycle Pop. dynamics Evolutionary change Scales Realized distribution
32 Current work & Next steps Connectivity Species bioclimatic range From fundamental to realized population niche under climatic scenarios Mechanistic Dynamic modelling Agent-based platform NetLogo Dispersal model Biotic interactions Time-series GIS Environmental factors Disturbance model Abundance model Life-cycle Pop. dynamics Evolutionary change Scales Realized distribution
33 (c) Baptiste Fallon Thank you
34
35 RCP8.5 vs RCP2.6
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