LAND USE CHANGE WITHIN THE BASIC DESIGN IN NORTH OF BAGHDAD

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1 LAND USE CHANGE WITHIN THE BASIC DESIGN IN NORTH OF BAGHDAD Ruba Yousif Hussain Highway and Transportation Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, Iraq ABSTRACT Rapid changes have been happened in land uses in Baghdad city in Iraq especially through the last fifteen years ago. and agricultural s are gradually decreased as a result of population growth and increasing demand for residential buildings. The intent of this study is to determine the annual changes of land uses during the period from 2002 to the end of The elected study is placed in north of Baghdad. Set of multi-temporal satellite images are obtained from google earth professional. These images are rectified according to the coordinate system in Iraq by measuring numerous control points using global positioning system. Images are classified into green and urban regions and their s are tabulated for all multi-temporal data using geographic information system. The results indicate that the percentages of land use changes are 36.7%, 35.1%, 34.3%, 17%, and 12.4% in Gheraiat, Tunis district, Basateen district, Saba Abkar, and Surroundings of Kadhimiyah regions, respectively. Regression equations are deduced with high value of R square for all regions which give an ability to predict land use alteration in future. Keywords: land use, image classification, annual change, regression analysis, basic design. 1. INTRODUCTION s in Baghdad city where there are a change in land uses can be divided into two distinct sections. The first section is the green s within the basic design in Baghdad while the second section is the green s located in districts and surroundings in Baghdad. Also, the green s within the basic design in Baghdad are categorized into three major regions. The first is located in the north of Baghdad includes Gheraiat, Tunis district (Afaq Arabia), Basateen district, Saba Abkar, and Surroundings of Kadhimiyah regions. Dora in the southwest of Baghdad is the second region. Finally, the third region is Zafaraniya and Diyala Bridge in the south of Baghdad. Both land use and land covers are useful for project planning and management. Earth surface is suffering from fast land use and land cover alterations because of several socioeconomic actions and normal events [1]. "The term land use relates to the human activity or economic function associated with a specific piece of land " [2]." The term land cover relates to the type of feature present on the surface of the earth "[2]. The two terms information must be shown on dissociated maps. The integration of remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS) seems to be an essential implement for monitoring land use modifications [3]. agglomeration is a quite sophisticated spatial shape of integrated cities [4]. The tendency of urban growth occurs in worldwide states. However, the level of urbanization is so rapid in Iraq country. It is mostly caused by random expansion, migration, and population gathering [5]. Irregular urbanization approach is a main issue, particularly in the growing countries where there is deficiency of spatial data [6]. This status is extremely obvious in Baghdad city in Iraq. The redundancy of urban s at the expense of green s leads to the destruction of agricultural lands, desertification, lack of local production, and the country becomes an importer rather than a product which result to unemployment. The study focuses on the detection and analysis the land use changes that have been occurred in the basic design in north of Baghdad city. The annual changes of land use s from 2002 to the end of 2016 are determined. Land use changes can be resolved through various software like ArcGIS, ERDAS imagine, Surfer, and Microsoft Office Excel. The extractions of regression equations are useful to predict the land use changes in the future. 2. OBJECTIVES Many institutions and official departments in Iraq such as Baghdad Municipality and Service Ministries will benefit from studies of land use changes during time periods. The objective of this paper is to detect the land use changes especially during the last fifteen years from 2002 to the end of 2016 and their impact on the environment in relation to the basic design in Baghdad. The green s in Baghdad city are limited and they are gradual diminishing due to replacement of their uses to residential, commercial, and industrial without official approvals. The majority of these replacements do not include services such as building schools, hospitals, health centers, and services of water, electricity and roads. This mutation affects on the environment and changes the basic design of Baghdad maps. The reduction of land abuse and the change of service map in Baghdad are essential through finding solutions to these events. 3. STUDY AREA The study is located in the north of Baghdad in Iraq extended by ( N N) in latitudes and ( E E) in longitudes. It is divided into five regions: Gheraiat, Tunis district (Afaq Arabia), Basateen district, Saba Abkar in the east of Tigris River, and Surroundings of Kadhimiyah region in the west of Tigris River. Mixed activities are available in 8285

the five study regions. Satellite images from 2002 to the end of 2016 are taken from google earth professional. Figure-1 and Figure-2 represent samples of study images in 2002 and 2016, respectively.

Various control points are distributed and established in the study covering all regions. Figure-1. Image of study in 2002. Figure-2. Image of study in 2016. 4.

2 the five study regions. Satellite images from 2002 to the end of 2016 are taken from google earth professional. Figure-1 and Figure-2 represent samples of study images in 2002 and 2016, respectively. In 2002 (Figure-1), green s appear the dominant features rather than urban s while in 2016 (Figure-2), this situation is reversed. The green s are diminished gradually. Various control points are distributed and established in the study covering all regions. Figure-1. Image of study in Figure-2. Image of study in MEASUREMENTS The locations of control points are selected through site reconnaissance stage. Thirty-six control points are established covering study in the north of Baghdad as illustrated in Figure-3. Fourteen control points are located in the Surroundings of Kadhimiyah region which has the larger compared with other study regions. Areas of regions have been measured in ArcMap, ArcGIS as in Table-1. The other twenty-two control points are distributed in Gheraiat, Tunis district, Basateen district, and Saba Abkar regions. These control points are essential for image rectification. The map coordinates are measured using global positioning system (GPS) (Table- 2). Measurements are based on the coordinate system of World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 1984) in zone 38 north with respect Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection. 8286

3 Figure-3. Distribution of control points in study. Region Table-1. Areas of study regions. Area_km2 Tunis District Gheraiat Saba Abkar Basateen District Surroundings of Kadhimiyah Region Table-2. Measurement of coordinates by GPS. Point N_m E_m Point N_m E_m P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P

5. PROCESSING Fifteen multitemporal images have been processed using GIS. The processing includes image rectification, classification, and tabulates s.

One model for image projection and classification (Figure-4) and the other for tabulate s (Figure-5). These model builders have been applied for annually image data from image 2002 to image 2016.

4 5. PROCESSING Fifteen multitemporal images have been processed using GIS. The processing includes image rectification, classification, and tabulates s. Each multitemporal image has been georeferenced to the measured control points. The geoprocessing has been created and treated using ArcToolBox, ArcGIS by designing two model builders. One model for image projection and classification (Figure-4) and the other for tabulate s (Figure-5). These model builders have been applied for annually image data from image 2002 to image Project Raster tool is used to project image data. All images have been classified into two types: green s and urban s using Iso Cluster Unsupervised Classification tool. Output signature files are obtained from classification. Unsupervised classification gives good results for all images compared with supervised classification. Also, it is easy to execute especially when there are multiple image data. The tool of Tabulate Area is executed. Tabulate Area tool produces a table in ArcMap, ArcGIS. This table is converted to Microsoft Office Excel sheet using the tool of Table to Excel. The results are attribute tables for each image contain the green and urban s for the regions in Gheraiat, Tunis district (Afaq Arabia), Basateen district, Saba Abkar, and Surroundings of Kadhimiyah region. Figure-6 and Figure-7 present the image classification in 2002 and 2016, respectively. The name "cregion" in the Figures 4 and 5 means the output classified image according to the five study regions (region_project). Figure-4. Design of model builder for image classification. Figure-5. Design of model builder to tabulate. 8288

Figure-6. Classified image in 2002. Figure-7. Classified image in 2016 6. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS The annual changes have been calculated in Table-3, Table-4, Table-5, Table-6, and Table-7 for each year.

5 Figure-6. Classified image in Figure-7. Classified image in RESULTS AND ANALYSIS The annual changes have been calculated in Table-3, Table-4, Table-5, Table-6, and Table-7 for each year. The outcome tables show the percentages of gradual decreasing of green s. On the other hand, the urban s are mostly increasing to the residential uses. The percentages of land use change from 2002 to the end of 2016 are shown in Table 8 and Figure-8. Gheraiat region has the greater annual change from green s to urban s. Basateen and Tunis districts have approximately equal change. The less changes occur in Saba Abkar and Surroundings of Kadhimiyah region, respectively. Figure-9, Figure-10, Figure-11, Figure-12, and Figure-13 show the extractive regression equations from data of change per years. The statistical data analysis using Microsoft Office Excel generates relation equations between the year independent variable (x) and the dependent variable (y) in square kilometre for each class in each region. The higher values of R square imply that 8289

6 there are good relations between the two variables. The resulted R square for all regions range from (0.849 to 0.960), which are close to one value. This means that the regression analysis models are very strong and there is an ability to predict the change in the future. Table-3. Annual change in Gheraiat. Area (km 2) Area (Percent) Annual change Total Total Area Area % 33.6% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 33.8% 100% -0.2% 0.2% % 36.0% 100% -2.2% 2.2% % 36.2% 100% -0.2% 0.2% % 42.1% 100% -5.9% 5.9% % 44.0% 100% -1.9% 1.9% % 45.9% 100% -1.9% 1.9% % 46.0% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 48.3% 100% -2.3% 2.3% % 54.8% 100% -6.5% 6.5% % 57.7% 100% -2.9% 2.9% % 65.3% 100% -7.6% 7.6% % 69.1% 100% -3.8% 3.8% % 69.4% 100% -0.3% 0.3% % 70.3% 100% -0.9% 0.9% Sum -36.7% 36.7% Average -2.4% 2.4% Table-4. Annual change in Tunis district. Area (km 2) Area (Percent) Annual change Total Total Area Area % 45.5% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 46.3% 100% -0.8% 0.8% % 50.9% 100% -4.6% 4.6% % 51.5% 100% -0.6% 0.6% % 52.4% 100% -0.9% 0.9% % 53.5% 100% -1.1% 1.1% % 53.6% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 54.0% 100% -0.4% 0.4% % 57.5% 100% -3.5% 3.5% % 68.3% 100% -10.8% 10.8% % 69.3% 100% -1.0% 1.0% % 71.0% 100% -1.7% 1.7% % 75.2% 100% -4.2% 4.2% % 75.6% 100% -0.4% 0.4% % 80.6% 100% -5.0% 5.0% Sum -35.1% 35.1% Average -2.3% 2.3% 8290

7 Table-5. Annual change in Basateen district. Area (km 2) Area (Percent) Annual change Total Area Total Area % 32.8% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 33.7% 100% -0.9% 0.9% % 42.0% 100% -8.3% 8.3% % 42.4% 100% -0.4% 0.4% % 43.3% 100% -0.9% 0.9% % 43.4% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 44.3% 100% -0.9% 0.9% % 44.8% 100% -0.5% 0.5% % 48.0% 100% -3.2% 3.2% % 56.6% 100% -8.6% 8.6% % 60.5% 100% -3.9% 3.9% % 63.2% 100% -2.7% 2.7% % 66.2% 100% -3.0% 3.0% % 66.5% 100% -0.3% 0.3% % 67.1% 100% -0.6% 0.6% Sum -34.3% 34.3% Average -2.3% 2.3% Table-6. Annual change in Saba Abkar. Area (km 2) Area (Percent) Annual change Total Area Total Area % 33.3% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 33.9% 100% -0.6% 0.6% % 34.1% 100% -0.2% 0.2% % 36.7% 100% -2.6% 2.6% % 36.7% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 36.8% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 38.1% 100% -1.3% 1.3% % 38.4% 100% -0.3% 0.3% % 38.8% 100% -0.4% 0.4% % 44.9% 100% -6.1% 6.1% % 46.3% 100% -1.4% 1.4% % 49.0% 100% -2.7% 2.7% % 49.2% 100% -0.2% 0.2% % 49.8% 100% -0.6% 0.6% % 50.3% 100% -0.5% 0.5% Sum -17% 17% Average -1.1% 1.1% 8291

8 VOL. 13, NO. 20, OCTOBER 2018 ISSN Table-7. Annual change in surroundings of Kadhimiyah region. Area (km 2) Area (Percent) Annual change Total Area Total Area % 18.6% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 20.4% 100% -1.8% 1.8% % 21.8% 100% -1.4% 1.4% % 21.9% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 22.2% 100% -0.3% 0.3% % 22.5% 100% -0.3% 0.3% % 22.6% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 22.6% 100% 0.0% 0.0% % 23.1% 100% -0.5% 0.5% % 23.4% 100% -0.3% 0.3% % 24.3% 100% -0.9% 0.9% % 29.5% 100% -5.2% 5.2% % 29.6% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 29.7% 100% -0.1% 0.1% % 31.0% 100% -1.3% 1.3% Sum -12.4% 12.4% Average -0.8% 0.8% Table-8. Diminishing of green s versus increasing urban s. Region Percentage of land use change from 2002 to the end of 2016 Gheraiat 36.7% Tunis District 35.1% Basateen District 34.3% Saba Abkar 17.0% Surroundings of Kadhimiyah Region 12.4% 8292

9 Percentage of land use change from 2002 to the end of % 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Gheraiat Tunis District Basateen District Region Saba Abkar Surroundings of Kadhimiyah Region Figure-8. Land use change. Area ( km2 ) y = x R² = y = x R² = Gheraiat 2012 Figure-9. Extraction of regression equations for annual change in Gheraiat Linear ( ) Linear () 8293

10 Area ( km2 ) y = 0.056x R² = y = x R² = Tunis District 2012 Figure-10. Extraction of regression equations for annual change in Tunis district Linear ( ) Linear () Area ( km2 ) y = 0.177x R² = y = x R² = Basateen District Figure-11. Extraction of regression equations for annual change in Basateen district Linear ( ) Linear () Area ( km2 ) y = x R² = y = x R² = Saba Abkar 2012 Figure-12. Extraction of regression equations for annual change in Saba Abkar Linear ( ) Linear () 8294

11 Surroundings of Kadhimiyah Region y = x R² = Area ( km2 ) y = x R² = Figure-13. Extraction of regression equations for annual change in surroundings of Kadhimiyah region Linear ( ) Linear () 7. CONCLUSIONS a) The tendency of urbanization is related to population growth development during time periods. Most of land use changes in Baghdad city after 2003 year are illegal and need to find determinate solution. Random expansion of urbanization leads to green s extinction. The abuse of land in north of Baghdad affects on the environment and climate especially that the predominate winds in Iraq are northern. These influences will alter the basic design map in Baghdad. expansion and destruction of green s in Baghdad city during the fifteen years ago require frequent updating the basic design and land use maps. Updating plans and maps may be benefit from recent remote sensing images and the availability of geographic information systems. b) The agricultural and green s in the north of Baghdad are gradually substituted by urban s. The percentages of land use changes during the period from 2002 to the end of 2016 are 36.7%, 35.1%, 34.3%, 17%, and 12.4% in Gheraiat, Tunis district, Basateen district, Saba Abkar, and Surroundings of Kadhimiyah region, respectively. Plurality of green s diminishing and urban increasing do not include building services such as schools, hospitals, health centers, and the projects of electricity, water and sewage. The deduced regression equations are beneficial for predicting the amount of annual changes in the future. Higher values of R square which approach to one value give an indication for results goodness. c) The expansion of residential, commercial and industrial regions in the northern parts of Baghdad city will have significant impact of water, electricity, flumes, and trashes excess services. These effects will cause the increase of water pollution in Tigris River principally as the river suffers from the drought and water resources scarcity. d) It is necessary that the competent government agencies stand up for preventing indiscriminate disposition in green s, orchards and parks, and preventing their investment for residential, commercial and industrial purposes. Also, the encouragement of government institutions and burgesses to re-implant trees, palms, and build up public and private gardens. e) The exploitation of lands outside the basic design in Baghdad city represents the most important solutions to the problem of population inflation, and to reduce the encroachment of green and agricultural lands within the basic design map. The change of land uses is related to land ownership and influenced by historic, economic, cultural, and environmental variables. These factors will increase urban agglomeration phenomenon. f) Although there is a deficiency of recent ArcGIS spatial data and difficulty to obtain it in Iraq, the design of model builders using ArcGIS software package reduces time and cost though the processing facilitation of project raster, classification, extraction, and tabulate s for all input raster images. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author would like to thank Mustansiriyah University ( in Baghdad, Iraq for its support in the present work. REFERENCES [1] Cheruto Mercy C., Kauti, Matheaus K., Kisangau, Patrick D. and Kariuki Patrick Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques: A Case Study of Makueni County, Kenya. Journal of Remote Sensing & GIS. 5(4). [2] Lillesand Thomas M., Kiefer, Ralph W. and Chipman Jonathan W Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation. Fifth Edition. John Wiley & Sons. United States of America. 8295

12 [3] Mohamed Ali Mohamed Monitoring of Temporal and Spatial Changes of Land Use and Land Cover in Metropolitan Regions through Remote Sensing and GIS. Scientific Research Publishing. Natural Resources. 8: [4] Fang Chuanglin and Yu, Danlin Agglomeration: An Evolving Concept of an Emerging Phenomenon. Elsevier. Landscape and planning. 162: [5] Alzamili, Hadeal, H., El-Mewafi, Mahmoud and Beshr Ashraf M Monitoring Growth and Land Use Change Detection with GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques in Al-Nasiriyah city in Iraq. International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research. 6(7): July. [6] Mohammed Jambally Land Use and Cover Change Assessment Using Remote Sensing and GIS: Dohuk City, Kurdistan, Iraq ( ). International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences. 3(3):

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