Biological Effects Modeling. Nancy Kinner CSE University of New Hampshire

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1 Biological Effects Modeling Nancy Kinner CSE University of New Hampshire 1

2 Role of Models wrt Biological Effects Predict trajectory, form and concentracon of oil Protect human health (public and responder safety; seafood safety) Protect organisms (deployment of response assets) Predict damages to natural and human use resources (compensatory restoracon) 2

3 Effects of Oil on Organisms Mechanisms of Injury Chemical toxicity Impairment of cellular funccons Ecological changes Loss of keystone species Keystone species = plants/animals exert controlling influence on ecosystem (disproporconate to biomass)» Their removal leads to negacve change in ecosystem Take over of habitats by opportuniscc species Loss of habitat/shelter/proteccon EliminaCon of ecologically important species 3

4 Cellular Level Effects Narcosis Metabolic disrupcon GeneCc changes 4

5 Levels of Effects Individual PopulaCon Level Ecosystem Level 5

6 PotenCal Long Term Effects Adapted from Boesch and Rabalais (1987) for spills only High Priority: Chronic effects resulcng from persistence of med and high Molecular weight aromacc etc cmpd and degradacon products in sediments and cold environments Damage to coastal wetlands, reefs and vegetacon beds Intermediate Priority Physical fouling of aggregacons of birds, mammals and fish Lower Priority Effects of response itself (e.g., physical disturbance) ReducCon of fishery stocks due to mortality of eggs and larvae 6

7 Toxicological Terms Exposure: contact by swallowing, breathing or direct through skin /eyes etc Acute: intense, short Cme event (24, 48, 96 hr) result = death Chronic: long Cme event (weeks, months, years) Sublethal: below concentracon that causes death Dose: amount of contaminant deposited in/on organism Response: biological effect on organism Exposure Dose Response Exposure = Intensity x Frequency x DuraCon 7

8 Exposure Mechanisms Smothering/CoaCng Hypothermia Impede movement Clog gills etc IngesCon/uptake via gut Dermal absorpcon InhalaCon (air breathers) Form of oil (e.g., droplets or dissolved) important: Bioavailability 8

9 Toxicological Terms LC 50 : ConcentraCon causing death in 50% populacon Lower the LC 50 = greater toxicity of cmpd EC 50 : Conc causing 50% populacon to have some observable adverse effect NOEC: Highest conc causing no observable effect on organisms 9

10 Factors AffecCng Acute ad Chronic Toxicity of Hydrocarbons (HC) (Oil in the Sea III) ConcentraCon of HC and length of exposure Persistence and bioavailability of specific HCs Ability of organisms to accumulate /metabolize HCs Fate of metabolized products Interference of specific HCs or metabolites with normal metabolic processes that alter survival and reproduccon Specific narcocc effects of HCs on nerve transmission 10

11 What Affects LC 50? Type of oil component Total petroleum hydrocarbons Specific hydrocarbon (e.g., naphthalene) Component groups (e.g., monoaromaccs, polycyclic aromaccs (2 ring, 3 ring)) SINTEF, SIMAP Species and.. Life stage: eggs, larvae, juvenile Season: (e.g., metabolic rate) 11

12 Toxicity Tests TesCng regime: stacc, flow- through, spiked Choice of organism and life stage Method of preparing test solucon Water Accommodated FracCon (WAF) Exposure condicons Response monitored Weathered vs. fresh oil 12

13 Toxicity Databases e.g., EPA, NOAA Issues with sources, validity of data included, comparability of data, translacon to actual environmental exposures New databases are being created Cmpd specific, Components, Oil 13

14 Factors Influencing Effects Mobility of organism Floater (plankton) (currents) Swimmer (nekton) Strong: avoidance, unless difficult (enclosed water body) (random) Weak Sessile (non- mocle) Aquaculture (capcve) 14

15 Factors Influencing Effects UV light (photo- enhanced toxicity) UV magnifies effects b/c transforms cmpd to more toxic form Type of hydrocarbon e.g., low MW alkanes, 1 to 3 ring PAHs most acute toxicity.. solubility, toxicity, volaclity characterisccs DiToro introduced concept of Toxicity Units (TU) AddiCve toxicity when mulcple cmpds present Lots of data is available now Issues: length of exposure, mechanism, phase of oil, nominal vs. measured concentracons, 15

16 Biological Effects PopulaCon- Based Models Wildlife (fur and feathers) Certain species have high probability of oiling Fish Behavior: birds to dwell on water surface, dabblers, adults bring oil back to nest (eggs, young) Invertebrates: shrimp, shellfish Marine mammals and repcles (turtles) 16

17 Biological Effects Habitat- Based Models Habitat Recovery Time Saltmarsh 3-5 years Mangroves 10 years+ Sandy beach 1-2 years Plankton Weeks to months Coral reefs Years Seagrass beds Years 17

18 Dispersants Add Another Layer of Complexity Dispersant Solvents Bioavailability of oil cmpds Dispersants..Dispersed oil 18

19 Basic Biology Birth: eggs or live young Growth (larvae, juveniles) ReproducCon (adult) Death (predacon, injury, disease, age- related) 19

20 Biological Growth Models Maricopedia.edu 20

21 Perturba:on (e.g., oil spill) Normal Variability # of Individuals Recovery Spill Impact (Source: NAS, 2003) Time 21

22 Predator Prey Models 22

23 Predator Prey Models 23

24 Predator Prey Models 24

25 Marine Ecosystem Models 25

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29 Biological Effects Response Modeling Example: Deborah French- McCay ASA CRRC Project 29

30 What Don t We Know Rates and uncertainces Chronic toxicity GeneCc effects RelaConships Toxicity Test Simplicity to Complex Environment with MulCple Impacts ArcCc changing baseline climate change CRRC R&D Needs Reports: Biological Effects 30