The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan Presentation to CFGIS Users Group FDOT District 5 Urban Offices - Orlando July 30, 2010 Brady Smith Senior Planner Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
Introduction Recent disasters demonstrate the need for a comprehensive plan that goes above and beyond typical disaster planning Katrina, Ike Catastrophic Plan should be somewhat applicable to all disasters, not just hurricanes Large-scale terrorism event, for example
Catastrophe vs. Disaster Generally, most organizations (government, businesses, families) have (or should have) plans to address disaster events Obviously not ideal, but disasters can be prepared for and are somewhat manageable Catastrophes destroy or overwhelm resources over such a large area that some/most contingencies in disaster plans are no longer available options
Catastrophe vs. Disaster The core systems that keep our society running often have to be rebuilt, not just repaired Government, economy, education, communications, healthcare, infrastructure, etc. Migration of population leads to large-scale changes in the demographic characteristics of a region Who will make up the new post-catastrophe workforce?
Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan Follows work done on the South Florida Catastrophic Plan Tampa Bay plan is being coordinated / developed by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council under contract with Florida Division of Emergency Management Funding from U.S. DHS / FEMA
What is Tampa Bay? RDSTF Region 4 Citrus Sumter Hernando Pasco Pinellas Hillsborough Hardee Polk Manatee (Region 5)
Catastrophic Planning Scenario Hurricane Phoenix Simulated storm developed by the Tampa Bay Area National Weather Service Forecast Office Represents worst-case hurricane scenario
The Scenario Hurricane Phoenix Made-up storm that creates the worst amount of damage and still be plausible Large category 5 on a NE track hitting north of the mouth of the Tampa Bay Maximize storm surge in bay and along the coast Maximize impact of severe winds to all 9 counties
SCENARIO VIDEO http://www.tampabaycatplan.org/scenario.shtml
Hurricane Phoenix CAT 3 8 AM Thursday October 16 Simulated National Hurricane Center Forecast 5 days before landfall
Hurricane Phoenix CAT 3 2 AM Thursday October 16 Simulated National Hurricane Center Forecast 3 days before landfall
Hurricane Phoenix CAT 3 8 PM Wednesday October 15 CAT 2 11 AM Monday October 13 Simulated National Hurricane Center Forecast 48 hours before landfall
Hurricane Phoenix CAT 4 2 PM Wednesday October 15 CAT 4 5 AM Wednesday October 15 Simulated National Hurricane Center Forecast 6 hours before landfall
Modeling the Storm s Effects Storm parameters input into the SLOSH model to determine storm surge Same parameters also input into HAZUS loss estimation simulation software
Hurricane Phoenix Impacts Storm track and intensity input into SLOSH model http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/haw2/english/surge/slosh.shtml Determines storm surge potential Up to ~25 feet of storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay All barrier islands completely overwashed
Hurricane Phoenix Impacts Storm track and intensity input into HAZUS FEMA Loss-Estimation Software Determines population affected, structural damage, and much more See Scenario Information Guide and Consequences Report for details about estimated storm damage http://www.tampabaycatplan.org/scenario.shtml
Hurricane Phoenix Impacts HAZUS simulates impacts by location (Census block group) Structures impacted (# and %) Debris Critical Facilities Hospitals, Nursing homes, EOCs, Fire and Police Stations Critical Infrastructure Water, Wastewater Power and Communications Transportation Fuel
Social and Economic Impacts Impact to Employees including responders and critical employees Health Care System Additional Economic Impacts Work Place Damage and Business Interruption Workforce Loss of Key Assets: Ports, Airports Impacts to tourism, agriculture
Work Groups Emergency Management Emergency Response Critical Infrastructure/ Public Works Public Information Disaster Housing Economic Restoration Animal Issues Humans Services Health and Medical Environmental Restoration
Catastrophic Planning Summit January 5 & 6 in Tampa Around 300 leaders representing a wide range of fields/backgrounds that would play a role in recovery from a catastrophic event
Emergency Management Coordination of Response Rapid Impact Assessment Use of Technology GIS Satellite Federal / Military Assets Resource Requests and Priority
Catastrophic Planning Regional Planning Resources & Priorities Coordination Gaps! Consistency Recognizing State and Local Roles Recognizing Critical Partners Innovation
Next Step EXERCISE! August 5, 2010 Web-based Exercise to Address: 1.Disaster Housing 2.Public Information 3.Volunteers & Donations 4.Economic Restoration 5.Rapid Impact Assessment?
For More Information on the Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan www.tampabaycatplan.org brady@tbrpc.org