Preparing for the BIG one Cascadia Subduction Zone Event

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1 Preparing for the BIG one Cascadia Subduction Zone Event Source CZS Excercise updated Jan

2 Earthquake Faults in Washington State Emergency Management

3 Ring of Fire The Ring of Fire accounts for 90% of all earthquakes, and 81% of the world s largest earthquakes Subduction zones are shown in red The CSZ fault line is part of the Ring of Fire The CSZ is the only significant fault line on the Ring of Fire without a major quake in the last 50 years (see blue stars) Source Ed Taylor Sep 2015 Governor's Safety Conference 3

4 Cascadia Rising 2016 Exercise Exercise Scenario: Based on FEMA modeling studies the exercise will use the following assumptions - CSZ 9.0MEarthquake and resulting Tsunami Modelled impacts: Direct Impact to 3 States and British Columbia Complete rupture of the 800-mile Fault Line Impacts affecting over 140,000 square miles Ground shaking lasts up to 5 minutes Numerous aftershockswith several of M7.0+ Modelled estimates: 1,100 fatalities from earthquake; 13,000 fatalities from tsunami; 24,000 injured. Source Ed Taylor Sep 2015 Governor's Safety Conference 4

5 9.0 Magnitude Quake will be 100 times more powerful than the earthquake that hit San Francisco in Destr Dis Cat Source Ed Taylor Sep 2015 Governor's Safety Conference 5

6 Chance of Earthquake There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2012) and 10% chance of 9.0 or greater Quake (total risk 43% in 50 years). There have been 19 Quakes of 9+; 22 Quakes of 8+ over last 10,000 years (average every 200 years) The chance of earthquake increases as other faults are considered particularly Lake Creek Boundary. Combining the risk of either Lake Creek Boundary Fault or a CSZ event raises Clallam County risk to higher than 50% in the next 50 years. Emergency Management

7 FEMA and HITRAC Modeling FEMA commissioned a multi year study, produced in Dec Modeling factors- Feb. 6 weekday Complete rupture Epicenter is 60 miles of Oregon coast 9.0 magnitude, 5 minutes of shaking Tsunami wave 20 to 80 feet depending on location Aftershocks of M 7.0

8 Secondary Effects Landslides and Avalanches Gas Leaks Fires Flooding Hazardous Materials releases Low level Contamination Lack of food and water Disease

9 HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES There will be no surviving ground routes to the county. 80 % of the roads will suffer pavement failures over 3 no damage 23% of coastal area bridges will be out of service for days. 50 % of Coastal bridges will be damaged and unusable. completely destroyed

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11 UTILITIES ELECTRICAL GRID 100% will be severely damaged or destroyed. It may take up to 1 year to restore service to 90 % of the current demand. WATER AND SANITARY SEWER 100% will be severely damaged or destroyed. 67% of water may be restored as power is repaired. 33% must be rebuilt. 44% of sewer may be restored as power is repaired. 56% must be rebuilt.

12 Potential Flooding to Woodcock Bridge on Dungeness Woodcock Road & Sequim Dungeness

13 Sequim Dungeness Map Tribal Grounds JSK Excavation Golf Course City Hall Emergency Management

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16 Clallam County Fire District #3 Area Command Structure for Clallam County For Disaster Operations Area Command 1 Division Neah Bay Divisions Shipwreck Point, Clallam Bay Seiku, Pysht Area Command 3 Area Command 4 Division PA West Division PA East Division Deer Park Division R Corner Division Carlsborg Area Command 5 Division Sequim Division Diamond Point Division Ozette Division Pillar Pt Division Joyce Division Beaver Division Bear Creek Division Indian Valley Division La Push Division Forks Division East Jeffco/Hoh Area Command 2

17 The Need for Volunteer teams (SAR, Shelter, CPOD, Communication) is critical to reduce loss of life Loss of Life Scenario Ranges* Cascadian Subduction Zone event will create four waves of losses Low HiTrac Earthquake itself structural and debris strikes Tsunami - Wave impact on coastal areas Entrapment & Isolation (1.5x-3x initial deaths) Fragile Population or Special Needs (Oxygen etc.) (Kitsap Public Health Study Medical Dependent15.4K - May % High End Loss) Food and Water (range of 2%-9% of population) Range of Losses Losses would be from 6% to near 33% of population of Clallam County Above % could and probably would be impacted by high tourist events such as festivals & assumes base population of 72,000

18 Does Clallam County have a plan to make it easy for the HELP to get here? YES Clallam County EMD s proposed plan incorporates the following: Adopting a novel approach tailored to micro-island management Decentralized emergency management vs traditional county seat centric plan Establish 5 decentralized area commands Planning done at local community level. Based on resources expected to be in area at the time of the event. Promotes local ownership of the plan. Optimizes the use of resources and knowledge of the area. Creating detailed ground assessment for the Area Commands Using knowledge of the communities from local leaders Using ground truth documents to educate state and federal to confirm damage and isolation of county communities. Conducting tours of the county for state and federal advanced teams (National Guard said we are the only county to do so and viewed by them as best practice ).

19 IS HELP COMING? How soon will help come? When will it get here? Who will it be?

20 Not much help during 1 st 72 hours WA NATL GD US Armed Forces Units T32 forces = Other States National Guards T32 forces = Other States National Guards US Armed Forces Units

21 Disaster Awareness What can you do in advance? Prepare! Clallam Fire District #3 Have a Family plan for at home; at work; at school; out and about Your first priority is to take care of your family if you are not at work If you are at work the department will prioritize them for welfare check Develop a family plan Ensure that every family member knows how to reach family and friends Set meeting point(s) if you are separated Do not cross roads or bridges that are unsafe in trying meet at those points Talk with friends and relatives in advance about meeting the children if you can t Establish an out of region contact for family members to coordinate with Preparation of extra supplies Cascadia Subduction event may require up to a 30 day supply stock before substantial food and water is delivered into the county Canned goods are an easy way to stock up supplies (buy a few each week of shopping) Think about storing some water and having filtration abilities (we have a lot of water in the area just not filtered/purified) Stock a 30 day supply of key medications for family members If your child needs medications daily you may want to send some with them or keep at their school. Source CZS Excercise updated Jan

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23 Additional Information Dan Orr (360)

24 Final Thoughts Don t be an alarmist, be a realist Thrive not simply survive Everyone will be looking to us to solve their issues. Everyone will assume leadership roles. Outside of the box, ie: no windshield surveys This is the beginning, much more to come.