MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA (MESA)

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1 MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA (MESA) Climate Change in the context of MESA Jose A. Marengo CPTEC/INPE MESA SWG Member

2 MESA IMPLEMENTATION PLAN-OUTLINE (DRAFT) Part 1: MESA Scientific Objectives Part 2: Scientific Rationale Part 3: The MESA Program 3.1 PRAs Framework SAMS Life cycle Diurnal and mesoscale variability Intraseasonal variability Interannual and interdecadal variability Climate Change Paleoclimate 3.2 MESA Modeling and Data Assimilation 3.3 MESA and the South Atlantic 3.4 The MESA hydroclimatic component over La Plata Basin 3.5 Project structure and Timeline Part 3: MESA Field Component Part 4: Dataset development and Data management Part 5: Programmatic Context 5.1 Project infrastructure 5.2 Education and Training 5.3 Link with other programs

3 MESA CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES (in the context of GEWEX-CLIVAR) Detection (Observational studies) attribution (modeling) applications -Studies on observed long term climate and hydrological variability in the MESA region (in the context of LBA and LPB). This include mean climate and extremes (observations, reanalyses, field experiments) -Global climate model projections for the future (Century XXI) for IPCC TAR and AR4 models, mean and extremes under contrasting SRES emission scenarios A2, B2, AB1) and other experiments (1% CO2,.). This include multimodel ensembles and uncertainty analyses and extremes (for IPCCAR4). -Downscaling of regional climate change scenarios, based on the PRECIS experiences and regional funded projects (PROBIO, GOF-UK in Brazil, CLARIS, GEF-Plata, GEF-Amazon, IAI, National Climate Change committees..) and for the implementation of UNFCCC National Communications on Climate Change from each country in the MESA region (and South America as well). This include multimodel ensembles and uncertainty analyses (more global and regional models) -Impacts of land use changes in climate change in the MESA region (Collaboration with LBA and LPB) Impacts, vulnerability, adaptation -Development of a local capacity of climate change to produce projections, using the AOCPTEC AGCM with the Eta/CPTEC nested on it, for future scenarios (alternative to IPCC based experiments) Long term goal..!!!

4 Observed trends

1960 1970 1980 1990 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 3 2 1

Amazonia Rainfall Index (NAR) 1 13 25 37 49

5 Marengo (2004) TAC Northern Amazonia Rainfall Index (NAR) Southern Amazonia Rainfall Index (SAR) Drought 2005 A B

SST Outubro e frequencia del LLJ NJDF + 2 1 0-1 -2 2 1 0-1 -2 SST (Nino3.

6 Variabilidade interannual e interdecadal de LLJ e de indices do Pacifico tropical (SOI-Indice de Oscilaçào Sul, SST3.4) e do Atlántico Tropical SALLJEX # Episodes-NDJF events-ndjf SOI-Annual Correlações entre SST Outubro e frequencia del LLJ NJDF SST (Nino3.4)-Annual SST (Tropical Atlantic-Annual Correlações entre SST Novembro e frequencia del LLJ NJDF

7 Trends in extremes of rainfall and temperature in South America during Vincent et al. (2005) Haylock et al 2006)

8 Changes in T and P in Amazonia and La Plata Basin (IPCC TAR AGCMS) (From MESA and LPB Science Plans)

9 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EXPERIMENT 1%CO2 AND PRE-INDUSTRIAL-GFDL PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE FUTURE SCENARIOS OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH AMERICA MONSOON REGION (I. Cavalcanti) DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2 AND 20th century EXPERIMENTS-GFDL WGCM IPCC-AR4 AGCMS PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE

10 There is a generalized consensus among WGCM IPCC-AR4 models that precipitation changes projected over South America are mainly: i) Increase of summer precipitation over southeastern subtropical South America; ii) Reduction of winter precipitation over most of the continent; and iii) Reduction of precipitation along the southern Andes. Number of models depicting positive (top) and negative (bottom) differences of seasonal mean precipitations between and periods, (+) JFM POSITIVE AMJ POSITIVE JAS POSITIVE OND POSITIVE ANNUAL POSITIVE (-) EFM NEGATIVE AMJ NEGATIVE JAS NEGATIVE OND NEGATIVE ANNUAL NEGATIVE Vera et al. (2006, GRL submitted)

11 2XC02 control CDD ( )- ( ) CDD ( )- ( ) 2XC02 control R10 ( )- ( ) W GCM IPCC-AR4 AGCMS R10 ( )- ( ) Model: miroc3_2_hires hires. Scenario: 1pctto2x (2XC02) Run: (2001/2080) Scenario: Picntrl (control run) Run: (2001/2100) (Source: Nuñez and Blázquez)

12 Rusticucci et al (2006) Warm Nights (Tn 90) Mean WGCM IPCC AR4 20C3M GFDL 2.0 GFDL 2.1 CCSM3 MIROC3.2 hires

13 Rusticucci et al (2006) Heavy Precipitation Days (R10) Mean WGCM IPCC AR4 20C3M GFDL 2.0 GFDL 2.1 CCSM3 MIROC3.2hires

14 Marengo et al. (2006) Tendency ( ) WGCM IPCC AR4 20C3M para prec>10mm (r10) OBSV

15 Marengo et al. (2006) Tendency ( ) WGCM IPCC AR4 20C3M IPCC-AR4 AGCMS Warm nights (tn90) OBSV

16 Marengo et al. (2006) Regional trends-se SESA StationsKriged Stations MIROC GFDL0 GFDL CCSM CNRM INM MIRMED PCM Warm Caixa1 Regional Mean nights for tn90 (TN90) StationsKriged Stations MIROC GFDL0 GFDL CCSM CNRM INM MIRMED PCM Prec>10mm Caixa1 Regional Mean for r10 (R10) % 12 Days

Pre-Ind January Precipitation in South America

IPSL), going multimodal Kendall-Mann test 95 and

17 Pre-Ind January Precipitation in South America in a Changing Climate: Trends and Predictability (R. Terra) 2CO2 SST and Soil Moisture Tendency WGCM IPCC-AR4 AGCMS Two models so far (MPI, IPSL), going multimodal Kendall-Mann test 95 and 99% Significance Levels 4CO2 Red Positive Blue - Negative

18 HadAM3P Creating Regional Climate Scenarios from RCM (MM5) using Hadley Centre simulations HadAM3P-ARGENTINA ARGENTINA Mean Temperature changes ( ) relative to ( ) MM5/CIMA 50 km (Núñez, Solman, Cabre-CIMA)

19 Creating Regional Climate Scenarios from RCM (MM5) using Hadley Centre simulations HadAM3P-ARGENTINA ARGENTINA Precipitation changes ( ) relative to ( ) (Núñez, Solman, Cabre-CIMA)

Government and policy makers Society Academics Downscaling (40-50 km) Regional multimodel ensemble Individual regional models Impacts of climate change Vulnerability

20 Foreign & Commonwealth Office CREAS- Regional Climate Change Scenarios for S. America IPCC Global models: HadAm3P (IPCC TAR) (HadGEM1, ECHAM5)* Regional models: RegCm3, Eta/CPTEC*, HadRM3 CREAS IPCC global models Users and Decision makers Government and policy makers Society Academics Downscaling (40-50 km) Regional multimodel ensemble Individual regional models Impacts of climate change Vulnerability Assessments Applications Adaptation and mitigation measures Detection and attribution IPCC AR4 (future) Products: (Paper, digital and GIS) -Maps of climate change projections for time slices, A2, B2 (and uncertainties) -Time series for some regions -Time slices..

21 Scenario A2 Rainfall anomalies (mm/day) - DJF HadRM3P [( )-( )] RegCM3 [( )-( )] Eta/CPTEC [ [( )-( )]

22 Scenario A2 Air temperature (2 m) anomalies ( C) - DJF HadRM3P [( )-( )] RegCM3 [( )-( )] Eta/CPTEC [ [( )-( )]

23 PROBIO-Publications 2006, 2007

24 Newsletters 1 and 2 of the GOF-UK-CPTEC project Set 2005 Mar 2006

MODELO HADLEY CM3 CAMBIO DE LA PRECIPITACION (mm/dia) (Respecto al periodo 1961-1990) Para la decada de 2020 segun ESCENARIO SRES A2a -20.0-25.0-30.0-30.0-30.5-31.

25 MODELO HADLEY CM3 CAMBIO DE LA PRECIPITACION (mm/dia) (Respecto al periodo ) Para la decada de 2020 segun ESCENARIO SRES A2a A s PRECIPITACION MEDIA ANUAL (mm/dia) ESCENARIO A MODELO PRECIS B s MODELO HADLEY CM3 CAMBIO DE LA PRECIPITACION (mm/dia) (Respecto al periodo ) Para la decada de 2020 segun ESCENARIO SRES B2a PRECIPITACION MEDIA ANUAL (mm/dia) ESCENARIO B MODELO PRECIS MODELO HADLEY CM3 CAMBIO DE LA PRECIPITACION (mm/dia) (Respecto al periodo ) Para la decada de 2050 segun ESCENARIO SRES A2a 20.0 A s PRECIPITACION MEDIA ANUAL (mm/dia) ESCENARIO A MODELO PRECIS Análisis de la estadística climática y desarrollo y evaluación de escenarios climáticos e hidrológicos de las principales cuencas hidrográficas del Uruguay y de su Zona Costera (Río Uruguay, Río Negro, Laguna Merín, Río de la Plata y Océano Atlántico) (Unidad de Cambio Climatico, 2005) 1.6 Vulnerabilidad relativa de la zona costera Oeste de Montevideo expresada en cuartiles (Nagy et al., 2004

26 Regional and national efforts: a) Title: Regional climate modelling of climate Change Scenarios in South América and Brazil. Coordination: Brazilian National Climate Change Program-MCT/Second National Communication of Brazil to the UNFCCC. Executor: CPTEC/INPE (J. Marengo, C. Nobre, S. C. Chou) Period: May 2006-December 2008 Funding: US $ from the UNDP b) Title: Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alterações climáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do Século XXI. Coordination: MINISTÉRIO DO MEIO AMBIENTE MMA. PROJETO DE CONSERVAÇÃO E UTILIZAÇÃO SUSTENTÁVEL DA DIVERSIDADE BIOLÓGICA BRASILEIRA PROBIO Executors: CPTEC/INPE, USP/IAG, FBDS (J. Marengo, T. Ambrizzi, C. Nobre, E. Salati) Period: December 2004-May 2006 Funding: US $ 130,000 from MMA/World Bank-GEF c) Title: Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America Coordination: UK Global Opportunities Fund Climate Change and Energy Programme/Foreign Commonwealth Office Executors: CPTEC/INPE (J. Marengo, C. Nobre) Period: May 2005-May 2008 Funding: US $ 225,000 from UK-FCO

27 d) Title: CLARIS ( A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies ) WP3.2 Coordination: J. P., Boulanger (UBA-LMD?) Executor: UBA (M. Rusticucci, O. Penalba), U Republica 0M. Renom), CPTEC/INPE (J. Marengo) Period: Funding: from EU e) Title: PROSUR Coordination: M. Nuñez Executor: UBA, CIMA, CPTEC, UFPR, USP-IAG, DHN, U.Republica, UNA, Period: Funding: from IAI f) To be completed by members of MESA and UNFCCC representatives in each country Future prospects for funding and interactions: FAPESP, IAI-CNR2, GEF-Plata, GEF-Amazonia, GWSP, CEOP (CIMSS- Monsoon/Aerosols), Pan-WCRP monsoon panel.

Climate of Amazonia: From interannual variability to Climate Change Jose A. Marengo CPTEC/INPE

Climate of Amazonia: From interannual variability to Climate Change Jose A. Marengo CPTEC/INPE Foreign & Commonwealth Office Importance of the Amazon region as one of the major controls on the functioning