Changes in Timing of the South American Monsoon?
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1 Changes in Timing of the South American Monsoon? A. Seth, UConn, Storrs M. Rojas, U Chile, Santiago S. Rauscher, ICTP, Trieste AAG 8, Boston
2 IPCC Projections South American Monsoon analysis: - Vera et al., Geophys. Res. Let. 6 - Li et al., J Geophys. Res. 6 much disagreement among models for Amazon Large scale circulation changes: - Vecchi and Soden, J Climate 7 - Neelin et al., PNAS 6 some coherent large scale changes
3 Overview South American Monsoon (SAM)? Model representations of SAM? Changes in SAM in a warmer world? Large scale changes in a warmer world?
4 South American Monsoon? e.g., Zhou and Lau, JClimate 1998
5 South American Monsoon? e.g., Zhou and Lau, JClimate 1998
6 South American Monsoon? e.g., Zhou and Lau, JClimate 1998
7 Model Simulated SAM? WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) (9 models) th century simulations 1st century SRES A (~higher emissions) scenarios Regions of analysis in this study: Monsoon and South eastern South Americ Emphasis on annual cycle
8 NCAR CCSM3 GFDL IPSL 8 NCAR PCM1 MIROC CSIRO X ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES Model Simulated SAM Monsoon Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation in Monsoon region 8 SESA Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation SESA 1 HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM X!A data NCAR CCSM3 NCAR PCM1 GFDL MIROC IPSL CSIRO Monsoon Surface Air Temperature (C) Figure. Month SESA Surface Air Temperature (C) 197- monthly mean precipitation for different regions in South America. Top panel: Monsoon region, bottom panel: Southeast South America. D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T Figure monthly mean surface temperatures region average for Monsoon region (top panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to Reanalysis.
9 NCAR PCM1 MIROC CSIRO 1!1 X - 3 Model Projected SAM ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES Monsoon Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change in Monsoon region HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM Model mean 1.5 NCAR CCSM3 NCAR PCM1 GFDL MIROC IPSL CSIRO 1!!3 SESA Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change SESA 1!1! ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 3.5!.5!1!1.5!3 Monsoon Surface Air Temperature (C) Mean precipitation change SESA Figure 3.! Month SESA Surface Air Temperature (C) Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America (as in fig. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations !.5 D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T!1!1.5! Month Figure 6. Regional averaged monthly mean surface temperatures differences A -C, Monsoon Figure 3. Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America region (as in(top fig. panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to model mean. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations.
10 NCAR PCM1 MIROC CSIRO 1!1 X - 3 Model Projected SAM ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES Monsoon Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change in Monsoon region HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM Model mean 1.5 NCAR CCSM3 NCAR PCM1 GFDL MIROC IPSL CSIRO 1!!3 SESA Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change SESA 1!1! ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 3.5!.5!1!1.5!3 Monsoon Surface Air Temperature (C) Mean precipitation change SESA Figure 3.! Month SESA Surface Air Temperature (C) Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America (as in fig. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations !.5 D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T!1!1.5! Month Figure 6. Regional averaged monthly mean surface temperatures differences A -C, Monsoon Figure 3. Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America region (as in(top fig. panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to model mean. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations.
11 Precipitation change
12 Large scale changes? weakening of tropical circulation via reduction in strength of Walker Circulation strengthened, poleward shifted sub tropical highs upped ante e.g., Neelin et al 6 from Vecchi and Soden, JClimate 7
13 ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 5 Latitud!!4!6!8!3!3!34!36 (a) 3 year mean lat of max SLP (b) 3 year mean monthly max SLP 18 HadCM3 Changes in S. Atlantic High NCAR/CCSM3 NCAR/PCM1 ECHAM5 GFDL MIROC HadGEM IPSL CSIRO Rean !38 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time 116 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time l mean SLP A-C difference. Black contour 1mb isoline 1mb isoline for model mean C. (c) Model mean lat of max SLP!6 18!7 C 17!8 A 16!9!3 15 (d) Model mean max SLP C A intensified poleward shifted!31!3!33!34 ptember 6, 7,!35 1:33pm D R A F T !36 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time Figure 8. 1 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time Figure 7. Seasonal mean, model mean SLP A-C difference. Black contour 1mb isoline (a) Monthly mean position of Sea Level Pressure maximum over the Atlantic ocean, in black Reanalysis. (b) Value of maximum of SLP. A(c) model SRESmean, A - C green latitude contour of maximum 1mbSLP, isoline for model mean C.
14 Poleward shift in SACZ Latitude Latitude!!3!4!5!15!!5!3!35!4!45 SON Clim position of max. precipitation Longitude SON A! Longitude SON A!C Latitude Latitude!!3!4!5!15!!5!3!35!4!45 DJF Clim position of max. precipitation Longitude DJF A! Longitude DJF A!C CMAP HadCM3 ECHAM5 CCSM3 NCAR/PCM1 GFDL.1 IPSL HadGEM1 MIROC3. Latitud!!4 Latitud!!4!6!6!8!8! Longitude! Longitude
15 Moisture divergence Figure 1. Monthly mean VIMT divergence differences in regions in South America, SRES A (7-1) - C (197-) model simulations. D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T
16 Moisture divergence SON: DJF: divergence in Monsoon convergence C VIMT convergence colors (positive Figure 13. Top row: seasonal mea region Monsoon region convergence and VIMT. Middle row: same SESA as top row butsesa indicates divergence, negative conve onvergence. Boxes in the figures indicate for A. Bottom row: A-C diffe
17 Latent Heat Flux Monsoon SESA ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 3 Monsoon Surface AirTemperature (C) Figure 15. Regional averaged monthly mean latent heat flux differences A -C, Monsoon region (top panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to the model mean. D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T Figure 15. Regional averaged monthly mean latent heat flux differences A -C, Monsoon region (top panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to the model mean.
18 Summary CMIP3 projections suggest: - a weakening of the early season precipitation in the Monsoon region - - shorter, more intense rainy season strengthened warm season rains in SESA Mechanism? - local (soil moisture) + large scale (tropical)
19 Model Simulated SAM?!!4!6!8 (a) 3 year mean lat of max SLP HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM Rean NCAR/CCSM3 GFDL IPSL NCAR/PCM1 MIROC CSIRO (b) 3 year mean monthly max SLP!3 1!3!34! !38 DecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct Nov Time 116 DecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct Nov Time
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