as Climáticas sobre o Nordeste do Brasil

Transcription

1 Dinâmica do Clima e Mudanças as Climáticas sobre o Nordeste do Brasil Paulo Nobre INPE ANA-CGEE Debate Clima e Água no Nordeste Brasilia, 14 August 2008

2 Outline of this talk The mean climate Mechanisms of climate variability Seasonal predictability & predictions Impacts of global climate change What is next?...

3 Annual Mean Precipitation (mm/day) Base period: Data source: East Anglia C.R.U.

4 NORDESTE CLIMATE REGIMES 5 0 N 200 mm 100 mm J M M J S N QUIXERAMOBIM 100 mm 300 mm 5 0 S J M M J S N REMANSO Q O 200 mm 100 mm 10 0 S 15 0 S 20 0 S 200 mm 100 mm J M M J S N CAETITE C R S 300 mm 200 mm 100 mm J M M J S N SALVADOR J M M J S N OLINDA Feb-Apr May-Jun Nov-Jan 25 0 S 55 0 W 50 0 W 45 0 W 40 0 W 35 0 W 30 0 W 25 0 W From Kousky et al. (1980)

5 SAMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CONVERGENCE ZONES ITCZ SITCZ SACZ From: Grodsky and Carton (2002)

6 The Equatorial Pacific Influence ENSO Cold ENSO Warm

7 The Tropical Atlantic Influence (A) 20 0 N A WARMER SST S (B) 20 0 N ITCZ DRY A COOLER SST COOLER SST A SSTA Meridional Gradient S ITCZ WET WARMER SST 80 0 W 60 0 W 40 0 W 20 0 W E A Adapted from: C. A. Nobre and L. C. B. Molion (1988)

8 20 0 N S Wet/Dry Eastern Nordeste: ocean-atmosphere atmosphere characteristics Wet Cooler SST Warmer SST A 20 0 N 0 0 Dry Warmer SST Cooler SST 20 0 S A 80 0 W 60 0 W 40 0 W 20 0 W E Adapted from: Rao and Lima (1991)

9 ATLANTIC ITCZ POSITION AND OLR ANOMALY CORRELATION

10 MAM CPTEC AGCM T062L28 ANOMALY CORRELATION TAUY RAINFALL

11 poucas evidências de mudanças na amplitude do fenômeno ENSO nos próximos 100 anos. Porém, há possibilidades de uma intensificação dos extremos de secas e enchentes que ocorrem durante eventos quentes de El Niño.

12 Amazon Deforestation Simulations Precipitation Departures AGCM CGCM Nobre et al. (2008, in prep.)

13 Amazon Deforestation and ENSO variability Nobre et al. (2008, submitted)

14 Global Mean Temperature Change

15 Annual Mean Tmax Vitória de Santo Antão, PE

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17 Projeções aumento na temperatura do ar ate 2100 em relação a IPCC WG 1 Chapter 10

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21 Figure 3.2: Examples of current vulnerabilities of freshwater resources and their management; in the background, a water stress map based on the 2005 version of WaterGAP (Alcamo et al., 2003a).

22 Figure 3.4: Ensemble mean change in annual runoff, in percent, by 2050 under the SRES A1B emissions scenario, based on an ensemble of 12 climate models (Milly et al., 2005).

23 change of annual runoff Figure 3.8: Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions. 1: Bobba et al. (2000), 2: Barnett et al. (2004), 3: Döll and Flörke (2005), 4: Mirza et al. (2003) 5: Lehner et al. (2005a) 6: Kistemann et al. (2002). Background map: Ensemble mean change of annual runoff, in percent, between present ( ) and for the SRES A1B emissions scenario (Nohara et al., 2006).

24 Impactos Severos nos Recursos Hídricos do Nordeste. Tendência a aridização da região semi-árida do Nordeste até final do Século XXI Balanço Hídrico-Nordeste Maior Déficit Hídrico no Nordeste: Vulnerabilidade na agricultura!

25 Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea level events are very likely to change

26 Rainfall anomalies (mm/day) (Annual) [( )- ( )] Seco Seco Seco Seco B2 B2 A2 A2 Temperature anomalies (C) Annual [( )- ( )] Quente Quente B2 B2 A2 A2

27 Warm nights index (TN90) [( )- ( )] HadRM , B , A2 OBSV Increase in the frequency of warm nights until 2100 Increase in the frequency of warm nights during

28 Intense rainfall index ( R10) [( )- ( )] HadRM , B , A2 OBSV Increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events until 2100 Increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events during

29 Consecutive dry days index (CDD) [( )- ( )] HadRM , B , A2 OBSV Increase in the frequency of consecutive dry days until 2100 Reduction in the frequency of consecutive dry days during

30 The aggregated CCI (Climate Change index) on a grid basis for South America, for the period in relation to (Baettig et al. 2007). Regions more vulnerable to Climate Change The CCI indicates that climate will change most strongly relative to today s natural variability in the tropics. The high CCI-values in the tropics are caused by precipitation changes but also seasonal temperature events. Concerning strong temperature changes, it has to be noted that in the tropics the hot temperature indicator responds more strongly to absolute changes in mean than elsewhere, because natural temperature variability is much smaller in the tropics than in higher latitudes. According to the CCI, climate is expected to change more strongly relative to today s natural variability in these more vulnerable countries than in many countries with a high HDI and thus lower vulnerability.

31 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

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33 Cenários IPCC Aquecimento Global Temperatura Média Global Extensão Gelo Marinho Ártico, Cenário A2 A2

34 CO 2 de Origem Fóssil & Intensidade do Uso de Carbono Emissões estão seguindo o cenário de mais altas emissões Raupach et al. (2007)

35 HadCM3 Change in Carbon Content

36 Carbon Cycle Effects on Carbon and Temperature Changes

37 Summary of climate change scenarios for the end of the XXI Century and possible impacts over Nordeste Brazil A2: 2-4 C warmer, 15-20% less rainfall. B2: 1-3 C warmer, % less rainfall Possible impacts: High frequency of dry spells and evaporation rates and low soil moisture levels affecting levels of channels and reservoirs. Losses in natural ecosystems caatinga. Tendency towards aridization and desertification in the semiarid region. Water scarsity. Waves of climate refugees migrating towards large cities agravating social problems. Impacts on human health Sources: INPE, MMA- PROBIO, EMBRAPA, CEPAGRI

38 CPTEC s Climate Forecast Data Assimilation AGCM Atmos OBS T-S OGCM Coupled Suite Goal Coupled Forecast AGCM SST OGCM 6 hourly Regional Model daily Health Model Hydrology Model Atmos FCST daily/hourly SFC fluxes Crop Model Wave Model IC

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40 The REGIS study (an UK experience that can serve as a paradigm for Brazil) UKCIP is involved in developing an innovative methodology for undertaking the type of cross-sectorial research that climate change necessitates. This is being implemented through a major commitment of resources in the REGIS study in North West England and East Anglia. The study aims to improve our understanding of the linkages between water resources, agriculture, biodiversity and coastal/river defence.

41 PIRATA SWE data collection