Siaga antelope migration revisited: relationship to recent mass deaths

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Olivia Cole
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1 Siaga antelope migration revisited: relationship to recent mass deaths Navinder J Singh 1 and Matteo Mattiuzzi 2 1.Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå 2.BOKU University, Vienna, Austria

4 Theory миграция Survival/ Reproduction Выживание/раз ведение Population dynamics популатион динамикс Winter Body condition Disease Risk/ Stress Mass Deaths Autumn migration & Rut Climate Food Density Disease Predation Spring Climate Summer Calving

5 Vegetation phenology Extent: km Spring migration: March / April Autumn: August / September Arrival at winter ranges: November / December Rainfall Singh et al Div. & Dist., Bekenov et al. 1998

water source Away from settlements Recently Calving sites

6 Factors determining calving site selection Intermediate productivity Food predictability Intermediate distance to water source Away from settlements Recently Calving sites moving away from settlements Bekenov et al. 1998, Singh et al Div. & Dist.

7 Calving Singh et al Biol. Cons. Fragmentation, Northward shift

8 Migratory cycle Conditions and their timing Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Summer Calving Rainfall,, Predation Bekenov et al. 1998, Singh et al Div & Dist

9 Migratory cycle global change Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Delayed arrival of snow, EOS Food availability - quality Winter Rising temperatures, Dzuts, Extreme snow, winter rain Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Rising temperatures, Water Availability, Food quality Summer Calving Rising temperatures, Early snow melt, SOS, POP Rainfall,, Predation Extents and timing of events altered Bekenov et al. 1998, Singh et al Div & Dist

10 Winter sites Temperature change 2015 will be added soon IOZ Aerial & Ground surveys 1977 onwards; Land Surface Temperature MODIS (MOD11C1)

11 Migratory cycle global change Delayed arrival of snow, Food availability - quality Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Winter Rising temperatures, Dzuts, Extreme snow, winter rain Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Rising temperatures, Water Availability, Food quality Summer Calving Rising temperatures, Early snow melt, SOS, POP, EOS Rainfall,, Predation Bekenov et al. 1998, Singh et al Div & Dist

12 Calving sites Temperature change 2015 will be added soon IOZ Aerial & Ground surveys 1980s onwards; Land Surface Temperature MODIS (MOD11C1)

13 Calving sites Temperature change (Year-mean) 2015 will be added soon IOZ Aerial & Ground surveys 1980s onwards; Land Surface Temperature MODIS (MOD11C1)

14 Calving sites Start Of Season (SOS) Need to select data range spatially, 2015 will be added soon IOZ Aerial & Ground surveys 1980s onwards; Land Surface Temperature MODIS (MOD11C1)

15 Wide spread of data - limitations IOZ Aerial & Ground surveys 1983 to 2008 Select Betpak Dala sites

16 Limitations of Satellite data IOZ Aerial & Ground surveys 1983 to 2008

17 Migratory cycle global change Delayed arrival of snow, Food availability - quality Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Winter Rising temperatures, Dzuts, Extreme snow, winter rain Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Rising temperatures, Water Availability, Food quality Summer Calving Rising temperatures, Early snow melt, SOS, POP, EOS Rainfall,, Predation

18 Migratory cycle global change Delayed arrival of snow, Food availability - quality Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Winter Rising temperatures, Dzuts, Extreme snow, winter rain Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Rising temperatures, Water Availability, Food quality Summer Calving Rising temperatures, Early snow melt, SOS, POP, EOS Rainfall,, Predation

19 Data for Migratory cycle - Winter Temperature, Snow, Dzut, availability Aerial and ground survey reports IOZ, Kazakhstan and recent data Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Summer Calving Rainfall,, Predation

20 Migratory cycle Spring migration Temperature, Snow, Dzut, GPS data ACBK? ; Satellite Obs. MODIS,Wordlclim, Field Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Summer Calving Rainfall,, Predation

21 Migratory cycle - Calving Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Summer Calving Rainfall, quality, Predation risk Old IOZ data, Rainfall Weather stations, NDVI, Calving / Random

22 Migratory cycle - Summer Temperature, Snow, Dzut, Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Summer Calving Rainfall,, Predation Old surveys and GPS data ACBK? ; Satellite Obs. NDVI, Wordlclim, Field Obs

23 Migratory cycle Autumn migration Temperature, Snow, Dzut, GPS data ACBK? ; Satellite Obs. NDVI, Snow arrival Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Autumn migration & Rut Spring Summer Calving Rainfall,, Predation

24 Linking Migratory cycle to condition and disease risk Temperature, Snow, Dzut, availability Body condition, disease, during captures and from dead animals- Fat content, more Autumn migration & Rut Winter Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Spring Body condition, disease, during captures and from dead animals- Fat content, more Calf survival, condition Summer Calving Rainfall,, Predation Calf survival, condition

Continuing work Body condition, disease, during captures and from dead animals- Fat content, more Calf survival, condition Temperature, Snow, Dzut, availability Data collection and Compilation for

die-offs & Rut in sedentary populations Aspects of metabolic stress on animals Acquire better data on temperature and NDVI Sort usable data Summer Calving Link to other studies in the project, broad

25 Continuing work Body condition, disease, during captures and from dead animals- Fat content, more Calf survival, condition Temperature, Snow, Dzut, availability Data collection and Compilation for each step Add more recent Winter data 2008 onwards Temperature, Snow melt, maturation Aspects of partial migration- what proportion of animals Autumn remain resident Spring year round migration Any die-offs & Rut in sedentary populations Aspects of metabolic stress on animals Acquire better data on temperature and NDVI Sort usable data Summer Calving Link to other studies in the project, broad and fine scales (based on field and remotely Calf sensed survival, data) condition Collaborate with everyone and contribute Body condition, disease, during captures and from dead animals- Fat content, more Rainfall,, Predation

26 THANKS

Two Concerns for Managers of Polar Bear Populations in the Near Future

Two Concerns for Managers of Polar Bear Populations in the Near Future Presentation to the Polar Bear Range States Meeting 24-26 October, 2011 Ian Stirling, PhD, FRSC on behalf of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist