Evolving 2014 Weather Patterns. Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota

Transcription

1 Evolving 2014 Weather Patterns Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota Northern Pulse Growers January 27, 2014 Minot, ND

2 Outline Today s Discussion Present Weather and Climate Factors Weather Risk Management 2014 Crop Weather Conditions

3 Ag Weather Challenges

4 Setting Realistic Expectations Mitigation of weather impacts on crop productivity drives the need for reliable weather information Expectations are that information will be clearly stated, easily understood, and accurate

5 Ag Producer Challenge Knowing what cons-tutes a realis-c expecta-on of accuracy in spa-al and temporal extents How? Understanding factors associated with defining weather and climate condi-ons Awareness of forecas-ng limita-ons Seeking out proven and trusted sources of informa-on

6 What is Risk Management

7 Agricultural Impacts of a Changing Climate Longer growing season Much warmer winters & slightly warmer summers Desiccation due to warming Altered hydrologic cycle Atmosphere holds more water vapor More frequent intense rainfall events Altered seasonal precipitation Earlier loss of snow pack Drought: Some regions will experience more drought Some will experience less More vigorous plant growth due to increased CO 2

8 Extended growing season Earlier end to Spring Frost threat Growing Season Impact of a Changing Climate Later first Fall Frost threat Extended average growing season Source: Kunkel, et al., Geo. Res. Ltr, 2004

9 Source: National Climate Assessment

10 Effects and Sensi-vity Vary by Commodity Wheat and small grains: extreme events, frost during flowering, water stress Corn: high nigheme temperatures, high temperatures during pollina-on, water stress Soybean: water stress, high temperatures Pasture and rangeland: water stress Specialty crops: water stress, high temperatures Source: USDA ARS Technical Bulletin

11 Increased Bio-c Stresses Will Significantly Affect Agriculture Insect pests Greater numbers, increased insec-cide resistance Geographic ranges increases & decreases Imports from foreign sources Pathogens Host- pathogen response changes (plants, insects) Cultural control measures may be less reliable Extreme events can spread Weeds Increased vigor, herbicide resistance Geographic range increases Source: USDA ARS Technical Bulletin

12 Responses of Agricultural Systems Changes in farmer behavior Changes in produc-on, consump-on, prices, and trade paperns Domes-c and global market response U.S. impacts depend on global response Economic effects depend on domes-c and global adap-ve capacity Impacts vary by region, by sector, and by stakeholder group Source: USDA ARS Technical Bulletin

13 2012 Drought Conditions

14 Past Summer Drought Conditions

15 Current Drought Conditions

16 Wet Fall Conditions

17 Early Winter Transition - Precip

18 Early Winter Transition

19 2014 Feb March Weather Expectations Temperature Near Much Below Much Above Above Below Above

20 2014 Late Feb March Weather Expectations Precipitation Above Near Above Much Below Below Below

21 2014 April June Weather Expectations Temperature Below Near Below Near Below Above Above

22 2014 April June Weather Expectations Precipitation Above Above Near Near Below Below

23 2014 July September Weather Expectations Temperature Below Near Above Near Much Above Above Much Above

24 2014 July September Weather Expectations Precipitation Above Near Above Below Above Near Below

25 Variables and Features to Watch Issues to Watch Going into Spring Persistence of Nickel and Dime snowfalls Orientation and average position of the Arctic Oscillation Has been in a cold phase since early November Mean location and structure of the Polar Jet Stream Showing a trend to split If it splits this could result in drier conditions throughout the Great Plains Soil moisture reserves for Spring 2014 will NOT be a major factor Continuation of Neutral ENSO through Summer 2014?

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27 Thank You! Prof. Leon Osborne Regional Weather Information Center Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota Grand Forks, ND