Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS) Abhisek Chatterjee

Transcription

1 Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS) Abhisek Chatterjee Earth System Sciences Organisation (ESSO) Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India HYDERABAD VI th Annual Meeting of GOADE OceanView Science Team, Sydney 2-6th Nov 2015

2 Ocean State Forecast- The Users

3 Integrated INDian Ocean FOrecasting System (INDOFOS)

4 Forecast Generation: Models ROMS General circulation parameters Indian Ocean Every 6 hour for 7 days Operational Regional Coastal High resolution WC and SEA Spectral Wave models Wave/Swell paremetrs/high wave Alert Regional, Coastal and Location specific Every 3 hour for 7 days Operational WAVEWATCH-III (Single grid) Wave/Swell paremters Global Every 6 hour for 5 days Semi-operational WAVEWATCH III (Multi grid) Wave/Swell paremters Global and Regional Every 6 hour for 5 days experimental GNOME Oil spill trajecory Location specific 3 hours Operational

5 INCOIS has been providing Operational forecasts of the general circulation features of the Indian Ocean from early 2010 onwards. Initially the spatial resolution of the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS) was 0.25 o x 0.25 o and later it was enhanced to o x o. Now the horizontal resolution is increased to 1/12 o x 1/12 o

6 High-resolution Operational Ocean Forecast and reanalysis System (HOOFS) Currently ESSO-INCOIS is implementing a series of very fine resolution (~ 2.25 x 2.25 km) coastal ocean forecast system for the entire coastal waters of the country. The set-ups are forced by the Operational atmospheric prediction system from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), New Delhi. Tidal boundary conditions are provided from the OSU Tidal Prediction software (OTPS).

7 Forecasting variables: Currents, Temperature, Salinity, D20, MLD, Sea Surface Height

8 Validation of the simulations by the SEA-HOOFS with the observations l Kochi l Colombo l October 2011

9 Simulation of barotropic tidal currents- comparison between model simulation and ADCP observation Shelf off Goa Slope off Mumbai Courtesy: MP Subeesh, NIO

10 Wave Forecast

11 Location specific wave forecast

12 Wave forecast for Nellore (East coast of India)

13 High Wave Alert/Warning and benefit to Fishermen ulti-lingual Warnings during HUDHUD cyclone The OSF service is provided to fishermen (free of cost)across the country. Purpose of usage of OSF is to decide on whether or not to venture for fishing, casting their nets, anchoring th

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15 Validation of Altimeter data using WHM shows a good match. Hence, Further evaluation of OSF using altimeter shows a good match with average r > 0.85 with a SI < 20%. (Harikumar et al., 2015, JAOT) Ocean State Forecast along Ship Routes: Evaluation Using ESSO-INCOIS Real-Time Ship-Mounted Wave Height Meter and Satellite Observations OSF along Ship-routes VS Wave Height Meter R & D OSF WHM OSF along Ship-routes VS Altimeter

16 Wave map service

17 Cyclone Hudhud October 2014 Last DWR observation

18 Oil Spill trajectory prediction for west coast of india with high resolution currents The Online Oil Spill Advisory (OOSA) version 2.0 was inaugurated by Director, INCOIS on at 20th NOSDCP meeting organised by Indian coast Guard, held in Goa. This version gives the high resolution trajectory prediction for the west coast and also gives the trajectory prediction for continuous and instantaneous spills

19 Search and Rescue Probability Scale Triangular area boundary Advisory valid Period: 3 days Search and Rescue activities (from June, 2015) for the missing Indian Coast Guard aircraft off Karaikal, southeast coast of India, by assisting the Indian Coast Guard search and rescue team with a specialised in house developed SARAT (Search and Rescue Aid Tool)" module/system - which helps in locating lost persons and objects in the sea, based on the last known position details. Feedback from Commander Coast Guard for support and cooperation given by INCOIS during Search and Rescue operations for missed Coast Guard Dornier CG 791.

20 INCOIS tide prediction stations INDIA COUNTRY INCOIS STATIONS INDIA 136 MYANMAR 12 SRI LANKA 11 BANGLADESH 9 CHAGOS 5 PAKISTAN 4 MALDIVES 1 TOTAL 178 Harmonic constituents (source) : National Institute of Oceanography, Goa

21 INCOIS has recently provided alerts for perigean spring tide flooding Munroe island (23 February 2015)

22 Real time storm surge warning for the very severe cyclonic storm Hudhud FORECAST SUMMARY First Simulation 0530 IST of Last Simulation 1730 IST of Number of Computational Grid Points in the Inundation Model Domain 0.5 Million Model Integration Time Taken for Each Simulation on HPC 5 Days 45 Minutes using 256 Processors Total number of bulletins issued 29 Maximum surge simulated for the entire duration of the event 2.4m near Pedanagayyapalem, Puspatirega mandal, Andhra Pradesh based on track forecast issued by IMD at 1430 IST of 11 th October Maximum inundation extent simulated for the entire duration of the event 400 m near Pedanagayyapalem, Puspatirega mandal, Andhra Pradesh

23 Real time storm surge warning for the very severe cyclonic storm Hudhud Real time validation of surge levels with observed tide gauge records. (Tide gauge station: Visakhapattanam)

24 Ocean State Forecast system for neighbouring countries OSF has been providing to Maldives for 2 years Ocean State Forecast system for Sri Lanka and Seychelles in collaboration with RIMES, inaugurated on 10 th July 2015

25 Dissemination of ocean state forecasts Streamlined Operational Dissemination System Telephone / Fax Electronic Display Boards s Web internet - Maps & Text - Web GIS SMS Radio and Doordarshan Local News Papers Information Kiosks Networking with NGOs and fishermen societies Advisories are provided in English, Hindi and 9 Local languages, making them more acceptable and usable

26 INCOIS is providing global ocean re-analysis on operational basis starting from 2003 to till date. This global ocean re-analysis is generated by assimilating a rich collection of ocean temperature and salinity profiles from various observation networks (Argo, moored buoys, XBTs, NIOT buoys etc.) in Global Ocean Data Assimilation System configured at INCOIS (modified version of NCEP-GODAS)

27 THANK YOU For more details please visit our wave page