Background to observing system assessment for the Indian Ocean

Transcription

1 Background to observing system assessment for the Indian Ocean Indian Ocean Modeling Workshop IPRC, Honolulu, November 2004 Gary Meyers Unique geography and physics (a unique heat engine) Unique social, economic and political conditions

2 History of planning OceanObs_99, St Raphael, France SOCIO_2000, Perth, Australia IOGOOS 1 st & 2 nd Confr s , 2004 CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel, 2004, Pune,, India

3 Attributes of the OS Long term & sustained Multi-national support Complementary satellite & in situ systems Priority for real-time data Free and open data access

4 Draft plan for an integrated OS Satellite ALT, wind, SST, color Moorings XBT s: HD&FR lines Argo & Drifters RT Tide Gauges Boundry regions Model-data assim. Data and product mgm t

5 The integrated OS Challenge to the workshop! Observe locally, model regionally, think globally C. Kennel, SIO Director What is the right mix of observation types?

6 Observing system simulations Andreas Schiller Raghu Murtugudde Tony Lee Gabe Vecchi Yukio Masumoto & H. Saji + some observation people Forward plans Friday 08:30 IPRC Confr Rm POST Bldg. Rm 404

7 Research issues, time-scales and impacts Intraseasonal disturbances Monsoon cycles Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Global warming and others.

8 Storm surges Indian Ocean and Climate Societal Issues day(s) seasons decadal Agriculture (soil, rainfall) Fisheries Land use change Maritime fcsts Floods Climate change Safety & Rescue Drought/mitigation Rain fall trends Environ. Mgmt Haze Water Mgmt Sea level rise Transport Tourism Retail Industrial operations (mining) New technology/industry Defence Research and knowledge Financial sector Observe globally, model regionally, think locally C. Kennel, Director SIO

9 Diurnal cycle physics Indian Ocean and Climate Science Issues day(s) seasons decadal diurnal d 1, 2, 4 yr SST trends Skin/bulk SST Monsoon cycle Change in T/S subduction Biogeochemical Intra-seasonal ecosystem Oscillation Cross-eq. Bay of Bengal convection cell Marine/ocean/coastal predictability Moisture transport to subtrp. NW cloud bands Seasonal to Interannual time-scales Indian Ocean Dipole ENSO IO Boundary currents

10 Intra-seasonal disturbances Prediction--days to weeks lead-time Tropical basin scale circul n & T(z), S(z) 4-Dimensional ML dynamics & barrier layer Coupling ML<->Subsurf. Enhancement Basin scale array Need integrated OS Latitude ( N) TAO moorings 5 OOS moorings INDIA ADCP Longitude ( E) Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots) along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles). Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2 N and 2 S at 0.5 interval along 80.5 E.

11 Monsoon cycles Heat balance of trp. Indian Ocean Basin scale circulation Vertical processes (subduction, upwelling) Boundary regions Cross Eq. Cell Enhancements --Complete float and drifter arrays --WBC obs..

12 Inter-annual variation Seasonal climate prediction IOZDM/ENSO connections Failure of CGCM s Initializ n,, AGCM, ML physics Enhancement All of the above + finalize XBT line sampling Wijffels and Meyers (2004)

13 Global warming and decadal variation 30 Indian Ocean warming ( C per century) 2 30 Indian Ocean warming ( C per century) P McIntosh -2

14 Global warming and decadal variation Predict regional climate change and sea level rise Understand future circ ln,, structure and heat budget Validate the climate model Enhancement All of the above + real time tide gauge network --20 existing, in planning stage --How many and where needed? --Also relevant to the fast time scales

15 Implementation Planning CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel is preparing document entitled: Understanding the role of the Indian Ocean in the climate system implementation plan for sustained observations (in preparation) Contains review of research issues, status of existing OS elements and forward plan Boundary regions not yet fully addressed

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17 RV Sagar Kanya Cruise October-November 2004! 3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring! 1.5 S, 0, 1.5 N along 80.5 E! ATLAS enhanced with current meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in addtion, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring! Expect to continue and expand with Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR, etc) and other institutions.

18 RV Sagar Kanya Cruise October-November Day Cruise 5 days for ATLAS/ADCP NOAA/PMEL in collaboration with NIO and NCAOR Latitude ( N) TAO moorings OOS moorings Longitude ( E) INDIA ADCP Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots) along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles). Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2 N and 2 S at 0.5 interval along 80.5 E.

19 First Data from Indian Ocean Mooring at 0, 80.5 E Deployed 22 October 2004

20 Atmospheric Teleconnections from the Indian Ocean: Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño amplitude, duration, timing West coast US rainfall Tropical storms and hurricanes

21 Cloudiness & Rainfall June 2001 (OLR, 5 N-5 S) The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Stochastic Forcing of El Niño Convective flare-ups occur every days over the Indian Ocean. These flareups are characterized by towering cumulus clouds, rainfall, and westerly surface winds that propagate into the Pacific sector to affect the timing, amplitude, and duration of El Niño. Aug 2003 cloudy/wet Indian clear/dry Pacific Atlantic McPhaden, 2004, BAMS

22 Atmospheric Teleconnections U.S. West Coast Rainfall Tropical Storms

23 Indian Ocean Science Motivation Improved description, understanding and ability to predict:! Seasonal monsoon variability! Intraseasonal oscillations! Indian Ocean Dipole! Decadal warming trends! Other

24 Draft Strategy for an Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array Attributes! Long term & sustained! Multi-national support! Complements satellite & other in situ systems! Priority for real-time data! Free and open data access via GTS and WWW