CYCLONE LAILA RED WARNING. May 19, 2010 (23.45 hrs)

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1 CYCLONE LAILA RED WARNING May 19, 2010 (23.45 hrs) The severe cyclonic storm LAILA over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 19 th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude N and long E, about 150 km northeast of Chennai, 250 km south southeast of Machilipatnam and 500 km south southwest of Visakhapatnam. The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Kavali and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam by afternoon/evening of 20 th May Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours and in north Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with Maximum speed reaching kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 36 hoursand very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours. Laila is expected to hit land between Nellore and Kakinada (close to Machilipatnam) at 5:30 am., on May 20, Wind speeds measuring km per hour coupled with heavy rain would lash the entire coastal belt. Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.warned the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its bulletin on May 19 at 2245 hrs IST. Authorities began evacuating people from low lying areas in all nine districts in A.P., as a precautionary measure as the weather office forecast heavy to very heavy rains during the next 48 hours. WARNING: Seventh warning signal was hoisted at Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Machilipatnam, Bhimunipatnam, Kalingapatnam, Nizampatnam and Vodarevu ports while fifth signal was raised at Krishnapatnam port. Danger signal 7 has been hoisted in all the sea ports in Andhra Pradesh and fishermen strongly cautioned against venturing into the sea. Orissa and West Bengal: According to NWP model predictions, the system is likely to move northeastwards across Orissa and West Bengal after the landfall. The enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy 1

2 falls likely to occur over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal form 20 th May and 21 st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20 th and 21 st May 2010 evening. PATH OF CYCLONE LAILA: 2

3 Predicted Intensity of the Wind: Date/Time(IST) Position (lat. 0 N/ long. 0 E) Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to / / gusting to 75 REPORTS OF MISSING AND DEAD: Andhra Pradesh: Four fishermen in Prakasam district and two others in Krishna district are reported missing. Tamil Nadu: Two feared dead Several fishermen, who put out to sea in 100 boats were reported missing since Monday, according to fisheries department sources. The fishermen of Pamban, Uchipuli and nearby areas who ventured into sea on May 17 night in boats with outboard motors were missing, they said. LIKELY IMPACT OF CYCLONE LAILA: Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes. Over 700 villages in four coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh are likely to be affected by a severe cyclonic storm that is expected to hit the coast. 3

4 The districts of East Godavari, West Godavari, Krishna and Guntur may bear the brunt of the Cyclone Laila, which is likely to cross the coast between Nellore and Kakinada close to Machilipatnam. The government released a list of 777 villages which are vulnerable to storm surge as a result of the cyclone, which lay centred at 250 km south southeast of Machilipatnam. As many as 338 vulnerable villages are in East Godavari district, where the port city of Kakinada is also likely to be affected, the government said. Krishna district has 233 vulnerable villages, Guntur 158 and West Godavari 48 villages. The port city of Machilipatnam is also likely to be hit hard. The authorities have started evacuating people from vulnerable villages and asked people to move to safer places on their own by Wednesday night. GOVERNMENT EFFORTS: After a review of the situation here, Chief Minister K. Rosaiah asked his cabinet colleagues to rush to the coastal districts to oversee relief and rehabilitation. The impact of the cyclone on coastal Andhra is likely to be severe and there is an urgent need for everybody to be on high alert, said Marri Shashidhar Reddy, Member, National Disaster Management Authority. The Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh has asked district collectors to use helicopters, if necessary, for rescue and relief operations. Over 10,000 people have already been evacuated in Visakhapatnam, West Godavari and Krishna districts. People living near the sea shore and the low lying areas have been asked to move to safe places by Wednesday night. In Krishna district alone, authorities have opened 120 relief camps. In West Godavari district, 100 buses of state owned Road Transport Corporation have been kept ready for evacuation of people. Teams of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) have reached the coast while four helicopters have been kept ready for rescue and relief operations. Over 500 personnel of the NDRF with 79 boats have been rushed to Andhra from Orissa and Tamil Nadu, an official said. Nine senior officers were deputed to the nine coastal districts to monitor rescue and relief works, while ministers also rushed to the districts likely to be hit by the cyclone. Officials said this was the first time in 20 years that the coastal region is facing a cyclonic storm during May. SOURCES: Indian Meteorological Department: BOB 01/2010/17, , 2245 hrs IST. PTI News: Cyclone Laila Batters north coastal Tamil Nadu 2 dead, May 19, Available at Laila batters north coastal Tamil Nadu 2 dead NDTV: 100 Fishing boats missing, cyclone moves closer to Tamil Nadu Coast. May 19, rain in tamil nadu as cyclone laila intensifies php 4

5 India Today: Andhra awaits cyclone Laila s fury, 5 dead in TN. May 19, Available at: ury,+5+dead+in+tn.html The Hindu: Heavy Rains in Coastal A.P. Hyderabad, May 19, Available at: laila to hit andhra coast thursdaymorning 24459/ Accidents and Disasters: Cyclone Aila to hit Andhra Coast Thursday Morning. May 19, AccuWeather.com: Tropical Cyclone Laila projected to make landfall in India. May 19, Available at: cyclone lailadisrupt.asp CONTACT: Name Designation Mobile Vikas Gora Focal Point Inter vikas@sphereindia.org.in Agency Coordination & URS Ashutosh Sphere Coordinator ashu@sphereindia.org.in MIS / GIS Viren Falcao Sphere Coordinator IAGs viren@sphereindia.org.in 5