DAILY MARKET REPORT 11 JULY 2018

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 11 JULY 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand posted some gains yesterday with the rand trading as low as R13.23/$ but has since come under some pressure once again with the rand quoted at R13.40/$ this morning. Support is seen in the R13.20-R13.15 area. South African equities did come under some pressure with the JSE Top40 ending 0.38% lower. In the US the dollar is mostly flat with the dollar quoted at to the euro this morning and US equities posted some more gains with the Dow ending 0.58% higher in the daytime session yesterday. However this morning equity futures are lower with the Dow 0.71% lower. Commodity prices are lower this morning with gold and platinum prices 0.15% and 0.85% lower than the levels seen yesterday while crude oil prices are 1.23% lower than the levels seen yesterday. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: Weekly South African producer deliveries US June PPI

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Sep maize CME Dec maize CME Sep wheat KCBT Sep wheat KCBT Dec wheat Matif Sep wheat (Euro/ton) CME Nov soybeans Sep CME maize R/ton Dec CME maize R/ton Sep CME wheat R/ton Sep KCBT wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Nov CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn CME maize prices traded lower setting new lows in the daytime session yesterday with the favorable weather forecast for the US Midwest weighing on prices. This morning the electronic maize prices are also trading lower. The weather forecast expects cooler conditions with rain in the US Midwest in the week to 10-day ahead which should be beneficial for the US maize crop with large parts going into pollination. In the US maize export market the USDA announced a private export sale of tons of US maize that was sold to Egypt. Soybeans CME soybean contracts managed to end the daytime session off the session lows but the electronic soybean prices are lower and the market is well below the levels seen at Safex close yesterday. The favorable growing conditions are limiting the buying interest. The weather forecast expects mostly favorable conditions in the US Midwest the next 2-weeks which should be beneficial for the US soybean crop/ Some positioning was also seen ahead of the USDA report due on Thursday. The average market expectation of the US 2017/18 soybean ending stocks is seen at 507 million bushels and the 2018/19 ending stocks are seen at 471 million bushels. Wheat US wheat prices traded lower in the session yesterday on some technical selling while the improved spring wheat crop conditions also weighed on the market. This morning the electronic wheat prices are also lower. In the world wheat market Egypt in their tender decided to buy tons of Russian wheat with no US wheat offered in the tender. German importers also bought tons of feed wheat out of the Black Sea region. The USDA will release their July report on Thursday. The average market expectation of the US all wheat crop is seen at billion bushels and the 2018/19 US wheat ending stocks is seen at 973 million bushels. 2

3 US cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead (inches) US 6-10 temperature forecast US 6-10 Day rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 10 July 2018 Maize South African white maize opened the day lower with the market trading on both sides of the opening after that. December white maize opened the day at R2126 and traded to a low of R2117 before finding some support in the R2120 area once again and some short covering was seen after that. The market traded higher after that trading to an intraday high of R2143 but white maize pulled off the highs into the close. The market need to break on either side of the recent R2120-R2140 trading range. The weekly South African maize exports for the past week was reported at tons including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. US maize prices are lower this morning and the rand is also stronger pointing to lower parity prices. The lower parity prices could weigh on local white and yellow maize in the session today. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day lower with the early rand strength and some follow through selling weighing on our market at the opening. December wheat contracts opened the day at R4138 and traded to a low of R4125 before some buying was seen with the rand coming under some pressure late in our session. December wheat contracts traded to an intraday high of R4153 breaking above the 9-day average and ending the day at the session highs. The weekly South African wheat imports for the past week was reported at tons. The wheat imports originated from Russia. US KCBT wheat prices are well below the levels seen at Safex close yesterday and the rand is also stronger resulting in lower parity prices this morning. We did see some buying interest in our market yesterday which could limit some of the losses in our market but the rand is stronger. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Jul Sep Dec Yellow Maize Jul Sep Dec Wheat Jul Sep Dec Sunflower Jul Dec Soybeans Jul Dec CME Corn Sep Dec South African soybean contracts opened the day sharply lower with some buying/short covering that was seen after the opening. December soybean contracts opened the day at R4523 and traded to a low of R4505 before some buying was seen. December soybeans managed to erase all off the early losses that was seen trading to a high of R4550 and ending the day at the session highs. 4

5 South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day unchanged/slightly lower with some more follow through selling that was seen after that. December sunflower seed contracts opened the day at R4929 which was also the intraday high with prices under pressure after that. The market sold off to a low of R4866 with the market ending the day off the session lows. US soybean contracts are lower this morning and the rand is also stronger weighing on parity prices. The sharply lower parity prices could put some pressure on local oilseeds in the session today but there was some buying interest in local soybeans in the session yesterday. Weather conditions Rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Dec maize prices CME Dec corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWZ8 Cndl, MAWZ8, Trade Price 2018/07/10, , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/10, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/10, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/10, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/10, /10/ /07/24 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/07/10, Value ZAR T October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July

7 Daily CZ8 Cndl, CZ8, Trade Price, 2018/07/11, 358, 359, 357, 358, -3, (-0.69%), SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/07/11, 392, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/07/11, 365, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/07/11, /09/ /07/26 (CHG) Price USc Bsh RSI, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/07/11, Value USc Bsh October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July