Wheat Outlook July 24, 2017 Volume 26, Number 44

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1 Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1 Weather 1 Grain Use 5 Market Situation Crop Progress. The U.S. spring wheat crop condition index this week is down only one point to 277 with 96% of the crop headed out. The poor category decreased 1 point, fair was up 2, and excellent down 1. South Dakota spring wheat rated very poor and poor is up to 76% (+2%), Montana 55% in those same categories (-2%), and North Dakota at 39% (-1%). 217 U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Condition Ratings Commitment of Traders 5 Marketing Strategies 218 Wheat Marketing Plan 8 Upcoming Reports/Events 9 % CCI Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent 217 Average USDA Crop Progress, Weather. Drought conditions worsened in the northern high plains last week as parts of Montana and North Dakota were classified in the exceptional drought category. The precipitation forecast for the next 5 days offers relief for southeast South Dakota into northern Nebraska and Iowa. The temperature outlook shows more moderate levels for most of the Corn Belt with the High Plains experiencing readings hotter than normal. The Oceanic Nino Index from the Climate Prediction Center is forecast to continue on the edge of El Nino-Neutral for the rest of the summer. The temperature reading this week was.4 C above normal. The seasonal temperature deviation is currently forecast to drop off in early fall. 1

2 Precipitation Forecast ( Days 1-3 Days 4-5 2

3 3

4 Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. ENSO neutral is favored (5 to ~55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter C Actual Measurements Predicted El Nino 1..5 Latest actual weekly SST departure Neutral. -.5 La Nina JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF '17 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF '18 JFM FMA Made 2 July 217 4

5 Grain Use. U.S. wheat export sales were 25 million bushels for the week of July 13 th. A sales pace of 14 million per week is needed to reach the marketing year target of 975 million. Mexico continues to be the top buyer of U.S. wheat, but the Philippines moved ahead of Japan this week into the number two position. 217/18 U.S. All Wheat Export Sales Commitments Mil bu 1, Projected MY Total Cumulative Net Sales Top Importers, Current MY, mil bu. Mexico 5 14% Phillipines 39 11% Japan 33 1% Korea 28 8% Nigeria 19 5% China 14 4% Taiwan 13 4% Thailand 1 3% Algeria 9 3% Weekly Net Sales Sales pace to reach target: 14 Export Sales Commitments for the week 7/13/217: 25 million bushels Total Export Sales Commitments this marketing year: 346 million bushels 35% of the 217/18 MY Export Sales Target of 975 million bushels (July WASDE) Normal sales commitments by the end of July: 37% USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service: July 2, 217 Commitment of Traders. Money managers were still net long last week in the Commitment of Traders Report from the CFTC, with mostly minor position changes reported. The biggest change was a decrease in shorts in the soybean contract of 2,723, which, when combined with a 3,35 increase in longs, resulted in a net gain of 24,73 long positions. Long contracts held were down in corn, Chicago wheat, and KC wheat. Prices in the nearby futures contracts last Tuesday were lower across the board. Managed Money, weekly contract weekly price net long positions 3-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul change change Corn (37,67) 115,66 17,83 (7,263) (24.75) Soybeans (82,63) 7,212 31,285 24,73 (39.75) Chicago Wheat 23,997 53,971 46,757 (7,214) (48.5) KC Wheat 54,574 72,845 7,751 (2,94) (54.75) Minn Wheat 13,59 1,889 11, (14.75) Total (28,157) 259, ,739 7,756 5

6 Speculative Investment in Corn Net Long Contracts Price, /bu 15, 41 1, 39 5, (5,) 33 (1,) 31 (15,) 29 (2,) 27 (25,) 25 6-Sep 27-Sep 18-Oct 8-Nov 29-Nov 2-Dec 1-Jan 31-Jan 21-Feb 14-Mar 4-Apr 25-Apr 16-May 6-Jun 27-Jun 19-Jul Net Long Price Speculative Investment in Soybeans Net Long Contracts Price, /bu 25, 11 2, 15, 1, , 95 (5,) (1,) 9 85 (15,) 8 6-Sep 27-Sep 18-Oct 8-Nov 29-Nov 2-Dec 1-Jan 31-Jan 21-Feb 14-Mar 4-Apr 25-Apr 16-May 6-Jun 27-Jun 19-Jul Net Long Price 6

7 Speculative Investment in Chicago Wheat Net Long Contracts 1, 5, (5,) (1,) (15,) Price, /bu (2,) 3 6-Sep 27-Sep 18-Oct 8-Nov 29-Nov 2-Dec 1-Jan 31-Jan 21-Feb 14-Mar 4-Apr 25-Apr 16-May 6-Jun 27-Jun 18-Jul Net Long Price Net Long Contracts 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (1,) (2,) (3,) Speculative Investment in KC Wheat 6-Sep 2-Sep 4-Oct 18-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov 29-Nov 13-Dec 27-Dec 1-Jan 24-Jan 7-Feb 21-Feb 7-Mar 21-Mar 4-Apr 18-Apr 2-May 16-May 3-May 13-Jun 27-Jun 11-Jul Price, /bu Net Long Price 7

8 The spread between the September and December Kansas City wheat futures contracts is 27 cents. This amount is above full carry for that 9 day period (3 months x 6 cents per bushel/month = 18 cents). Any percentage of carry above 67% is generally considered a bearish commercial market indicator. III Qtr Jul 24-Jul net change % change SEP 17 KC Wheat (.72) % DEC 17 KC Wheat (.6975) % Difference % Carry 138% 15% 12% SEP to DEC JUL 18 KC Wheat (.5125) -8.41% Marketing Strategies 218 Wheat Marketing Plan. I have completed all my sales of 217 wheat and am 2% priced on 218. July 218 KC Wheat and Marketing Plan /bu Early Season Price Rally / Early Crop Conditions Emerging from Dormancy/Late Season Conditions Harvest /12/217: Sold 2% at 67½

9 Upcoming Reports/Events. Registration now open for Master Marketer, brochure available at: Registration now open for TEPAP, brochure available at: August 1 September 18-2 October 2-3 October October 3-31 Crop Production and WASDE Master Marketer, Castroville, Texas Mark Welch, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Economist 6 John Kimbrough Blvd, Suite 335 College Station, Texas Tel. (979) Fax. (979) The opinions and recommendations expressed are solely those of the author and are intended for educational purposes only as part of the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. The author and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service assume no liability for the use of this newsletter. The Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service provides equal access in its programs, activities, education and employment, without regard to race, color, sex, religion, national origin, disability, age, genetic information, veteran status, sexual orientation or gender identity. The Texas A&M University System, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the County Commissioners Courts of Texas Cooperating 9

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