LEVERAGING DWFI RESOURCES TO ADDRESS WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN LATIN AMERICA UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE
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1 LEVERAGING DWFI RESOURCES TO ADDRESS WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN LATIN AMERICA UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE Rachindra Mawalagedara Robert J. Oglesby Presented at the DWFI Student Support Research Forum, May 12, 2016
2 Background What are we doing? Ø Regional Climate Modeling for Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Why Latin America and the Caribbean? Regions potentially at severe risk due to future climate change Why use a regional climate model? Need for properly resolved surface climate in the region, due to its complex topography and nearness to oceans Leung et al., 2012 Existing knowledge gaps in dynamical downscaling 2
3 Primary Goal of the DWFI Funded Project. Establishment of the Framework for a Regional Consortium for Climate Change for Latin America and the Caribbean The goals of the Regional Consortium Consolidate a regional task force on climate change and impacts Enhance capacity on generation, use and visualization of high- resolution climate data Complement existing knowledge gaps on climate change impacts Improve Mapmaker, an existing online tool to visualize data Peer reviewed journal articles/technical manuals 3
4 Summary of Activities for the Past Year Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 UNESCO COP21, Climate Change Summit, France Workshop in Colombia Finalizing the contract and securing funding for the Regional Consortium AGU, San Francisco, CA Analyze high resolution WRF simulations for on going projects Caribbean Initiative Discussions 1 st Regional Consortium Workshop in Panama Generate high resolution WRF simulations for on going projects 4
5 Status of the Regional Consortium and First Workshop in Panama 5
6 Regional Consortium: First Workshop Country Point of Contact Affiliation 1 Bolivia Marcos F. Andrade Institudo de Investigaciones Fisicas, Universidad Mayor de San Andres (UMSA) 2 Colombia Franklyn Ruiz Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) 3 Costa Rica Luis Alvarado Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN) 4 Ecuador Juan Nieto Centro Internacional para la Investigacion del Fenomeno de El Nino (CIIFEN) 5 Guatemala Gabriela A. Marroquín Centro De Estudios Ambientales y Biodiversidad, Instituto De Investigaciones Universidad Del Valle De Guatemala 6 Honduras Francisco Argenal Comisión Permanente de Contingencias (COPECO) 7 Jamaica Michael Taylor University of West Indies, Mona 8 Mexico Alberto Lopez Institudo de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE) 9 Panama Berta Olmedo Empresa de Transmision Electrica, S.A. (ETESA) 10 Peru Alan Rodriguez Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia 6
7 First Workshop for the Regional Consortium June 6 th 10 th in Panama City at CATHALAC Headquarters Objectives of the First Workshop Initiate the Regional Climate Change Consortium Review of available WRF, IPCC AR5 simulations and other relevant data Participant discussion of individual country issues and needs Formulate relevant Working Groups focused on specific impact areas Preliminary assessment and call for suggested improvements of MapMaker Design of the remainder of the Project Finalize the dates for the second workshop 7
8 Developing Mapmaker 8
9 Country Level Training for Latin America and the Caribbean 9
10 Caribbean Initiative Similar to the Regional Consortium but instead working with institutes from Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Windward and Leeward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, and Belize. Enhance and merge with ongoing regional efforts CORDEX: Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment High resolution WRF simulations for small domains in the Caribbean Currently working to finalize the funding for the project University of West Indies, Mona Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (5C s) Strong interest in a fully functional online platform to visualize and access climate data 10
11 Seasonal Forecasts for Colombia First workshop held in Bogota, Colombia 13 th - 17 th July, 2015 Working with IDEAM, Colombia (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales ) Identified existing knowledge gaps in seasonal forecasting Provided training on how to use WRF to perform high spatial resolution downscaling of seasonal forecast products that can be used in water resource management, agricultural planning and hydro- power generation Training in how to use the WRF to perform very high spatial resolution downscaling of seasonal forecast products Forecasts can be used for water resource management, agricultural planning and hydro- power generation Waiting for funding for a second workshop 11
12 Peer- reviewed Journal Articles 12
13 High Resolution (4 km) WRF Simulations for Sri Lanka Island in the Indian Ocean with small land area, diverse topography and land- use Already experiencing effects of climate change but no high resolution regional studies to address concerns High Resolution (4 km) WRF Simulations Historic Run ( ) driven by CFSV2 reanalysis data In progress Current Run ( ) driven by CCSM2 RCP8.5 scenario Complete Future Run ( ) driven by CCSM2 RCP8.5 scenario Complete Analysis Part 1: Model evaluation and changes in mean climate (in review) Part 2: Changes in climate extremes and impacts (paper under preparation) Part 3: Drought analysis for Sri Lanka (next step) 13
14 High Resolution (4 km) WRF Simulations for Sri Lanka Using High Resolution (4 km) Downscaling from WRF to Project Future Changes in Mean Climate for Sri Lanka (In review) Conclusions: High resolution simulations are needed to properly resolve effects of topography 4 km spatial resolution is needed to properly simulate the changes in temperature with elevation and spatial patterns of rainfall Warmer conditions with strengthened summer monsoon but weakened winter monsoon in the future Relevancy to the Regional Consortium: The need for high resolution climate studies for Latin America Similar but more comprehensive modeling strategy for Latin America 14
15 Evaluating 21st Century Climate Change for Bolivia: A Comprehensive Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Using the WRF Regional Climate Model Part of the on going work for Latin America and the Caribbean Uses a comprehensive set of high resolution WRF runs to identify projected changes in climate for Bolivia Will provide a solid framework and serve as a template (in terms of selection of WRF simulations) for future studies in the region Analysis carried out in 3 steps. PART 1: Evaluation of GCM Historical Simulations of Monthly and Seasonal Climatology over Bolivia Paper under preparation by Azar Mohammad Abadi PART 2: Evaluation of performance of WRF over Bolivia and changes in mean climate PART3: Changes in climate extremes and impacts due to climate change 15
16 Thank You! 16
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