Update on VAMOS EXTREMES WG Activities and Plans

Transcription

1 Update on VAMOS EXTREMES WG Activities and Plans A VAMOS task force on extremes was formed March 2008 chaired by Jean-Philippe Boulanger and Lisa Goddard report with recommendations issued on July 2008 VAMOS panel recommended creation of Extremes WG September 2009 Make progress on task force recommendations: Chairs S. Schubert and I. Cavalcanti Focus on physical-dynamic forcing of extremes in the Americas Take advantage of indices defined by the CLIVAR/CCl/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) collaborate with the CLARIS LPB Workpackage: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin. Main WG activities since officially starting in February 2010 Finalized prospectus outlining plans and deliverables Decided on membership Held a teleconference discussing plans and first steps

2 VAMOS/EXTREMES WG Siegfried Schubert: NASA/GMAO USA, (co chair) Iracema F.A. Cavalcanti: CPTEC/INPE Brazil, (co chair) Alexander (Sasha) Gershunov, Scripps, UCSD, USA Alice Grimm, Federal University of Paraná, Brazil Brant Liebmann: CIRES/University of Colorado, USA/SA Charles Jones: ICESS/UCSB USA/Brazil/SA Dave Gochis, ESSL/NCAR, USA Hugo Berbery: UMD, USA Hugo Hidalgo: Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica Jae Schemm: CPC/NOAA, USA Kingtse Mo; CPC/NOAA USA Leila Vespoli De Carvalho: ICESS/UCSB USA/SA Matilde Rusticucci, FCEN Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina Olga Penalba, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina Paulo Sergio Lucio, University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil Tereza Cavazos, Dept. of Physical Oceanography, CICESE, Tim LaRow, COAPS/FSU, USA Viatcheslav (Slava) Kharin, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada

3 Overview of Prospectus The overall focus is on improving our understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of warm season extremes over the Americas Specifically, the initial focus is on precipitation extremes includes such phenomena as droughts/heat waves and floods time scales range from daily weather events to subseasonal to decadal and longerterm variability Consistent with Key Task Force Recommendations focus on droughts, pluvial periods, heat waves in the VAMOS regions document extremes over the historical record Consider key years/periods where extreme events were outstanding to further the understanding of mechanisms, predictability and potential early warning

4 Tasks Develop atlas of warm season extremes over the Americas focus on precipitation extremes (droughts and floods) coordinate among various groups/wg members to get the best available observations suitable for the quantification and documentation of extremes Interact with ETCCDI to take advantage of software and indices developed as part of that effort ( Evaluation of existing and planned simulations CMIP5 IPCC/AR5 global and CLARIS-LPD regional scenarios, decadal hindcasts, Seasonal hindcasts (e.g., CFSRR, GEOS-5), USCLIVAR drought simulations Ultra-high resolution (10-20km) global climate model simulations ICTP Workshop on High Resolution Modeling: Assess and analyze mechanisms using above atlas and latest high resolution reanalyses (e.g., MERRA, CFSR, ECinterim) New model runs to address mechanisms and predictability of extremes Case studies of selected extremes (based on above) Large ensemble, multiple models, multiple resolutions Impacts of SST anomalies, MJO, stationary Rossby Waves, etc. on extremes Link to IASCLIP modeling plans

5 High Resolution Modeling and Analysis of Mechanisms Examples of Modeling results Examples of relevant mechanisms

6 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) AGCM GEOS-5 GEOS-6 development Non-hydrostatic global modeling Exploration of global cloud permitting resolutions (14- to 3.5- km) Pursuit of cloud resolving (< 1-km) with explicit cloud micro-physics Observations: GOES 14 Model: GEOS 5 5 at 3.5 km z

7 Tropical Convection & Hurricane Bill 72-hr forecast Initialized z GOES 3.5 km GEOS 5

8 Hurricane Bill August km 7-km GEOS-5 GEOS-5 CloudSat CloudSat 24N 20N 16N 08/19/09 08/19/ Z 1730Z 7-km 7-km GEOS-5 GEOS-5 Liquid/Ice Liquid/Ice Mass Mass Fraction Fraction 22 14N 14N 15N 15N 44 16N 16N N 17N 69 -hr forecast Initialized 69-hr z N 18N N 19N N 20N N 21N N 22N N 23N 24N 24N

9 2005 Climate and Tropical Cyclones 14-km

10 Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks 2005 (May-Dec) 5 N Indian 19 W Pacific Observed Tracks 4 S Indian (880 hpa Deepest central pressure) 17 E Pacific 27 Atlantic 7 N Indian 24 W Pacific 14-km GEOS S Indian (890 hpa Deepest central pressure) 9 E Pacific 25 Atlantic 3 N Indian 15 W Pacific 28-km GEOS- 5 4 S Indian Global Non-Hydrostatic Modeling with (950 GEOS-5 hpa Deepest central pressure) 4 E Pacific Atlantic

11 Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks 2006 (May-Aug) 13 0 W Pacific N Indian Observed Tracks 0 S Indian (910 hpa Deepest central pressure) 10 E Pacific 5 Atlantic 0 N Indian 14 W Pacific 14-km GEOS- 5 2 S Indian (920 hpa Deepest central pressure) 6 E Pacific 5 Atlantic

12 Summary The GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution (working toward cloud resolving) global models and data assimilation systems to facilitate: addressing weather/climate issues (e.g., changes in hurricane activity and other extreme weather) assimilating high resolution satellite observations Summary of high res runs that have been done by various groups can be found at: Schubert, S.D., I.-S. Kang, F. Kucharski, J. Shukla, Summary Report of the Workshop on High-Resolution Climate Modeling.. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy, August 2009.