GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Project (GURME)

Transcription

1 GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Project (GURME) Page 1 July V. Bouchet, Chair A/Dir National operations, Meteorological Service of Canada, ECCC

2 GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Project (GURME) Created under GAW in 1995: To enhance the capabilities of NMHSs in providing urbanenvironmental forecasting and air quality services of high quality, illustrating the linkages between meteorology and air quality; In collaboration with other WMO programmes, WHO and environmental agencies, to better define meteorological and air quality measurements focusing specifically on those that support urban forecasting; To provide NMHSs with easy access to information on measurement and modeling techniques; 2 To promote a series of pilot projects to demonstrate how NMHSs can successfully expand their activities into urban environment issues. mce2.org/wmogurme.org/ (hosted by L. Molina) Page 2 July-26-16

3 GURME pilot projects 1 st AQ Forecasting System in India: Forecasting Air Quality of tomorrow SAFAR (G. Beig, IITM) Shanghai Expo: multi-hazards forecast system (Lead by Tang Xu, SMB) Sao Paulo, Brazil Mexico City, Mexico Santiago, Chile Latin American cities Signature of MOU between Chilean Meteorological Office and UNAB to transfer AQ forecasting model to the Met Office. Page 3 July-26-16

4 A NEW ORIENTATION FOR GURME WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS16) : inclusion of Urbanization: research and services for megacities and large urban complexes among the six emerging challenges and opportunities for the decades to come. WMO 17 Congress (May 2015): Congress stressed that WMO and its Members can make a tangible positive impact on the urban environment by providing forecasts and integrated services that are targeted to the wideranging needs of urban authorities and population Emphasized that integrated urban services will be relevant for urban resilience and sustainable development GURME is shifting its focus from regional AQ forecasting systems to the modelling of the urban atmosphere environment to address related health impacts. Given the scale of megacities, GURME s area of focus spans from regional to high- Page 4 July resolution sub-km scales and how these environments interact with the regional and global scales

5 GURME SAG Composition GURME- Science Advisory Group Gufran Beig - Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Louisa Molina Molina Center for Energy and Environment Pablo Saide Iowa University Sue Grimmond Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Europe - AQ and meteorological urban modelling Asia Chinese Meteorological Administration Asia - Model / observations (including satellite) interface South America Model / Health interface Veronique Bouchet (Chair) Environment Canada Ex-officio: Greg Carmichael, representatives from JWGMNR (WWRP), APP SAG and CBS Collaboration at chair level between GURME and HIWeather (WWRP) Page 5 July

6 GURME Terms of Reference Address the research barriers to advance the predictive capacity at increasing resolutions, and in the urban context in particular: through the coordination of reviews in the current state of science in urban-scale forecasting and associated monitoring, establish activities where gaps exist. Develop activities on those research questions/issues that transcend disciplines and require leveraging a broader community to develop improved forecasting concepts and tools to resolve complex urban environments at increasing scales; facilitate data sharing and establishment of test beds. Given the integrative nature of modelling, the on-going scientific trend towards seamless predictions and the evolution of technology, actively engage other WMO advisory and working groups within WWRP, GAW and the rest of its organisation, to address this complex and multidisciplinary challenge. While megacities will continue to receive particular attention, orient its research to cover the full array of urban environments that are key to the broader scientific question of urbanscale modelling. Page 6 July-26-16

7 GURME Terms of Reference cont Continue to nurture its engagement with the health community as the main partner in assessing the needs, evaluating the benefits and communicating resulting services to society within these urban environments. Build capacity through its research projects, identifying those environments that constitute gaps in the overall directions of the GURME program and Encourage in its projects the development and testing of derived services. The products themselves would take the form of forecasts, alerts and warnings and/or realtime/nrt maps or databases. Forge stronger collaborations with CBS and/or individual operational centres to transition products in dissemination systems in a form that is well suited for large or targeted audiences. Collaborate explicitly with the Apps-SAG on projects at the interface of regional and local scales and contribute actively to facilitating data assimilation efforts focused on integrated/coupled models Page 7 and July at finer and finer scales.

8 Environment Canada s Environment Prediction System for the Toronto 2015 Pan Am & Parapan Am Games Page 8 July-26-16

9 ROLE OF TOMACS FOR CANADA s URBAN MODELLING Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with dense observation network was conducted by MRI, NIED and 12 research groups for the summers of Objectives: Evaluate, quantify, and understand the impact of the urban fabric on an intense precipitation event in Tokyo Evaluate the ability of a sub-km NWP model with realistic representation of surface processes to produce better Page 9 July forecast of this intense precipitation event

10 CANADA s URBAN SYSTEM for TOMACS: THE PRECURSOR TO PANAM S SYSTEM Model set-up: Nested GEM down to 250-m grid spacing Initial conditions from global analysis Configuration of 250-m model similar to HRDPS, except for... Town Energy Balance (TEB) Quasi-3D configuration of TKE scheme (mixing length dependant on 3D computational grid) Runs with and without TEB Runs (TEB) with and without anthropogenic heat fluxes Page 10 July km

11 Pan-American & ParaPan-American urban system demonstration Pan-American & ParaPan-American Games occurred in Toronto (Canada) in July 10 th to August 15 th, Environment Canada supported the games through an intensive observation campaign and increased forecasts for the safety and security of athletes and spectators. Greater Toronto Area (Toronto) ~ 7 millions inhabitants Opportunity for a science showcase at the national level To test and showcase our most advanced systems Accelerate their development in the lead-up to the games Innovate with a 1 st environmental prediction system (not just weather) Neither a GURME pilot, nor a WWRP research demonstration project The database will be contributed to WMO Page as 11 a July legacy database for urban environment studies as one of the typical

12 Mandated Mesonet UV Monitoring 5 min Radar Scanning AQ Cruiser Black Globe T (HC) Roadside AQ UAV Met/AQ Met Sensor 3 Auto8 Legacy Lake Breeze X Band Phased Array Doppler LIDAR AQ Site Wave Page 12 Buoy July Spectra/Dir 12 Lightning Mapping Array

13 The Urban Challenge urban stations Maple Leaf Gardens The standard weather station Page 13 July Quality control of urban measurements must take 13 into account the highly variable surface.

14 Forecast/Nowcast System GEM MACH 2.5 km Weather: 10km, 2.5km, 1km, 250m GEM cascade (urbanized <1km) AirQuality: 2.5 km GEM MACH AQ (HPC) Lake Model: GEM-NEMO (2km) Wave model :WW3 (1km deterministic) Heat: GEM heat stress indices Health Services & Societal User Impacts Dispersion modelling for emergency preparedness & response 250 m GEM Heat Stress Wave/Lake Modeling Page 14 July-26-16

15 Cloud cover structure (18:50 UTC) 250 m 1 km MODIS Aqua 250 m 2.5 km Page 15 July-26-16

16 Lake-Breeze Propagation & Vertical Velocities A TIME EVOLUTION (LT) 0 CONTROL RUN (z=300 m ASL) W Urban fraction topo CONTROL RUN (13 LT) W A ELEVATION (m ASL) W TIME EVOLUTION (LT) Page 16 July A W green + red ++ dark blue purple - - NO URBAN PROCES SES A

17 GEM-MACH v2 Model Setup for Pan Am Games (Craig Stroud, Sylvie Gravel) High resolution domain, 518x418 points (2.5 km) Chemical species at lateral boundaries are driven by ops GEM-MACH at 10km Chemical species at start of each forecast are recycled from last step of previous forecast GEM-MACH 10km : 48-hr forecasts started at 0Z and 12Z GEM-MACH 2.5km : 24-hr forecasts started at 6Z Met species at start of each run are from met analysis. Cloud variables are recycled from last time step. One of the objectives: Study the impact of Urban Heat Island and Lake Breeze circulations on air quality pollutant distributions Page 17 July-26-16

18 Ozone Vertical Cross Section, July 27, 15 EDT Classic Lake Breeze Circulation GEM-MACH v2 NO NM OS EC TE PA MI OA Note the GEM-MACH grid spacing UT TI Page 18 July LO Air Quality Sites OA Oakville MI Mississauga PA Pearson Airport TE Toronto East OS Oshawa University LO Lake Ontario TI Toronto Island UT University of Toronto EC Environment Canada NM Newmarket NO North GTA

19 PERFORMANCE AND RESOLUTION: 2.5km vs 10km GEM-MACH Model Evaluation (Bootstrapping method) O3 NO2 PM2.5 HRDPS vs OBS RDPS vs OBS HRDPS vs OBS RDPS vs OBS HRDPS vs OBS RDPS vs OBS R MB RMSE HRDPS TOTAL RDPS TOTAL 7 2 Page 19 July HRDPS: High Resolution AQ model 2.5km RDPS: Regional AQ model OPS 10km Next steps: Rerun at 1km with urbanized version Legacy dataset for entire Pan Am period (all AQ and met obs) WWRP HiWeather Project

20 Heat event: An example of heat stress from 250-m GEM model (WBGT) WBGT Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Effect of clouds, along the breeze front Hot zone: effect of city and lake breeze Valid 2:00 pm on July 28, 2015 Page 20 July-26-16

21 WISDOM Weather and health Information System for Decision Optimization and Management Developed in collaboration with KFL&A Public Health Based on PHIMS (Public Health Information Management System) Common Operating Picture Situational awareness tool for environmental risks related to public health Custom ESRI GIS platform Responsive design Password protected Integration of monitoring/prediction with health outcomes in real-time Socio-economic and psycho-social static data To support interventions with vulnerable populations Page 21 July-26-16

22 Research Experiments 2.5 km National Operational CMC 200 m GEM-SURF National Experimental CMC Evaluation Coupling with Lake and waves models NEMO (optional) Support to PanAm 2015 Part of overall NWEP vision 250 m Integrated NWP system Toronto VERSION m Integrated NWP system Toronto FINAL Experimental CMC Real time forecasting 250 m NWP Operational CMC Toronto Montreal Vancouver Page 22 July-26-16

23 What is next? Post-PanAm in Canada Greater Toronto Area (Toronto) ~ 7 millions inhabitants The database will be contributed to WMO as a legacy database for urban environment studies as one of the typical settings encountered for large cities worldwide. Page 23 July-26-16

24 GURME Activities Participating in and sponsoring expert meetings EX: WWOSC Seamless prediction of the Earth system: from minutes to months (Available online at: Chapter 18: Urban-scale environmental prediction systems (C.S. Grimmond et al, 2015) Resolution to describe urban effects for different applications Methods to routinely gather and continuously update dynamically changing land cover Advance coupled models that simulate the feedback between human activities and urban environmental conditions Data assimilation methods to support coupled prediction systems Collaborations with WWRP such as HiWeather project and the Joint Mesoscale and nowcasting research working group Page 24 July-26-16

25 Surface characteristics workshop Approach to urban processes representation depends on the primary objective of the modelling, computational resources, and modelling design. To date there are ranges of ways to characterize the urban surface. Some developed specifically for modelling urban land-atmosphere interactions others intended for a variety of different purposes but now commonly used for atmospheric modelling. Efforts include WUDAPT, NCAR, U. Reading Objective of workshop: Understand the current ways for characterizing the urban land surface (modelling/observations; application/objective, scale) How data are currently obtained and what limitations they present Define future efforts needed in order to make improvements, including with need to have regular and rapid updates to the urban characteristic data Fall 2016, Montreal, Canada Page 25 July Picture from boston.com 25

26 Questions? Page 26 July-26-16