UNITED KINGDOM FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE, DRAGON CAPITAL GROUP

Transcription

1 UNITED KINGDOM FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE, DRAGON CAPITAL GROUP SOLAR OUTPUT AT PEAK TARIFF FOR DIFFERENT SLOPE AND ORIENTATION IN HOCHIMINH CITY ARTELIA Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City Office 6 Phung Khac Khoan District 1 HCMC Vietnam Tel.: +84 (0) DATE: AUGUST 2016 REF: VN1729

2 N VN1729 V1 First issue HOANG Viet Duc Nicolas JALLADE Nicolas JALLADE 17/08/16 Version Description Drafted by Checked by Approved by Date / VN1729 / AUGUST 2016 A

3 CONTENTS 1. Introduction 3 2. Methodology SYSTEM DEFINITION ORIENTATION AND TILT ANGLES 4 3. RESULTS of simulations ENERGY OUTPUT IN PEAK, NORMAL AND REVENUE SOLAR CURVES 5 4. Conclusions 7 Appendix 1: Ho Chi Minh City 8 ooo / VN1729 / AUGUST 2016 B

4 1. INTRODUCTION As there is still no Feed-In-Tariff in Vietnam for solar PV systems, the business model of such a system depends highly on the breakdown of solar for each EVN electricity tariff. In order to prepare the economics for each Pre-Feasibility studies for Solar Hub project, preliminary calculations are presented in this note in order to check the share of the solar during peak time for different orientations and tilt angles. The calculations were formed using a solar dedicated simulation tool, that is, PVsyst V 6.44 premium software ( under Ho Chi Minh City weather conditions. 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. SYSTEM DEFINITION A typical 100kWp peak power of the solar system was chosen for the calculations. The assumption of the system was defined by following: Peak Power: 100kWp Type of solar panel frame: Fixed Tilted Plane Solar panel: 250 Wp, Si-mono, 60 cells (typical panel with no brand name) Inverters: 3kW, V with max efficiency 97%, mono-phased inverter The detailed losses were defined as follows, based on our previous exience and default values of PVsyst: The loss due to the temature was calculated based on thermal loss factor 20W/m2K, irradiation of solar, average ambient temature at HCMC. DC Ohm loss / AC Ohm loss: default values Module efficiency loss: 2% Soiling loss: 2% Unavailability time fraction: 2% Mismatch loss: 2% The electricity tariff was taken as (tariff schedule for industrial factor in 22kV-110kV range): Weekdays: Normal time: 1,405 VND/kWh and Peak time: 2,556 VND/kWh. Sunday: Normal time: 1,405 VND/kWh only / VN1729 / AUGUST

5 2.2. ORIENTATION AND TILT ANGLES The 100kWp system then was simulated for the following configurations: 5 degree slope, South Orientation 5 degree slope, South East Orientation 5 degree slope, East Orientation 5 degree slope, West Orientation 10 degree slope, South Orientation 10 degree slope, South East Orientation 10 degree slope, East Orientation 15 degree slope, South Orientation 15 degree slope, South East Orientation 15 degree slope, East Orientation 20 degree slope, South Orientation 20 degree slope, South East Orientation 20 degree slope, East Orientation Only one simulation was conducted for West, as the was much below the other. This is partly due to the fact that the irradiation in HCMC is higher in the morning compared to afternoon. 3. RESULTS OF SIMULATIONS 3.1. ENERGY OUTPUT IN PEAK, NORMAL AND REVENUE The table in the next page provides the results of the simulation, in terms of in production for each configuration of solar PV system. As it can be seen, the maximum peak time is reached at a 20 inclination and South-East orientation, with an of 31,398kWh. However, the total production is the highest with a 10 inclination and South orientation, with a yearly of 131,266kW. In order to determine the optimization of solar PV system in terms of revenue, the tariff schedule for industry (22kV-110KV range) was taken as input. As the result, the optimized configuration for this 100kWp would be at 10 inclination and South-East orientation. / VN1729 / AUGUST

6 # Slope ( ) Orientation Solar at Peak time Solar at Normal time Specific (kwh/kwp) % of in peak compared to total revenue (VND) Avoided cost (VND/kWh) 1 5 South 30, , ,959 1, % 218,836,380 1, South East 30, , ,878 1, % 219,008,632 1, East 30,485 99, ,116 1, % 217,900,320 1, West 25,372 95, ,797 1, % 198,923,328 1, South 29, , ,189 1, % 218,844,444 1, South East 30,869 99, ,860 1, % 219,389,120 1, East 30,787 98, ,221 1, % 216,991,962 1, South 30, , ,266 1, % 219,381,856 1, South East 31,184 99, ,460 1, % 219,190,049 1, East 31,072 96, ,007 1, % 215,614,154 1, South 29,993 95, ,023 1, % 210,178,613 1, South East 31,398 97, ,238 1, % 217,717,836 1, East 31,245 95, ,275 1, % 213,379,492 1,685 Maximum values: 31, , ,266 1, % 219,389,120 1, SOLAR CURVES On the graph on the next page is plotted the average daily over one year simulation, for some of the configurations presented above 1. It shows how the inclination and orientation of a Solar PV affects its daily profile. For West orientation, the daily profile shifts significantly to the afternoon and its peak is at around 13:45. For other orientations, the peak is at 11:10 (East), 11:40 (South East) and 12:20 (South), respectively. The East and South East orientations for the solar arrays provide higher during peak time, while the South orientation has the highest total production over the day. 1 Only some data are plotted here, in order to facilitate the understanding of the graph / VN1729 / AUGUST

7 East orientation South East orientation South orientation West orientation Peak time Peak time / VN1729 / AUGUST

8 4. CONCLUSIONS The simulations show that 21.00% to 24.74% of the total solar is produced during peak tariff, depending on system orientation and tilt angle. This ratio is at its highest for East orientation of the solar system, whatever the inclination is (5, 10, 15 or 20 ). However, the maximum solar is reached when the solar panels are facing south. In order to improve the economics of the solar system, it is therefore important to focus on the highest total revenues (which is here South East orientation with a 10 slope for this system) and not (only) the highest during peak tariff ratio (or the highest avoided cost). In Hochiminh City, the irradiation is higher in the morning; in addition, the (main) peak tariff also takes place in the morning. Therefore, generally speaking, the optimum orientation will be somewhere between East and South for any project. This also emphasise that any significant shading issue occurring in the morning will also have a significant impact on the economics. For any double-pitched roof, it is also advised to focus on the east / south east roofs in order to improve the economics of the PV system. It is important to note that the simulations conducted, and therefore the conclusions of this work, are based on a fake solar PV project, for a given electricity tariff. The optimum orientation & inclination depend on the project configuration, the surroundings (risk of shadowing) and the design of the solar PV system. It also depends on the daily load profile, and the capacity of a given building to self-consume the whole solar. / VN1729 / AUGUST

9 APPENDIX 1: MONTHLY ENERGY OUTPUT IN HO CHI MINH CITY Inclination: 5 degree, Orientation: South Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,548 8,888 11,436 February ,598 8,744 11,341 March ,820 9,398 12,218 April ,418 7,539 9,957 May ,568 8,806 11,373 June ,501 7,908 10,409 July ,613 8,978 11,591 August ,708 9,223 11,931 September ,317 7,875 10,192 October ,483 8,100 10,583 November ,118 6,935 9,052 December ,577 8,300 10,877 Specific , , ,959 Percentage 23.11% 76.89% / VN1729 / AUGUST

10 Inclination: 5 degree, Orientation: East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,322 7,803 10,125 February ,598 8,422 11,019 March ,654 8,776 11,430 April ,616 8,214 10,830 May ,605 8,919 11,524 June ,782 8,772 11,554 July ,470 8,407 10,877 August ,730 9,297 12,027 September ,339 7,823 10,161 October ,482 7,944 10,425 November ,352 7,427 9,778 December ,537 7,829 10,366 Specific ,485 99, ,116 Percentage 23.43% 76.57% Inclination: 5 degree, Orientation: South-East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,568 8,716 11,283 February ,625 8,622 11,247 March ,597 8,587 11,184 April ,480 7,707 10,187 May ,579 8,829 11,408 June ,742 8,627 11,368 July ,636 9,027 11,664 August ,715 9,236 11,951 September ,335 7,857 10,192 October ,497 8,043 10,540 November ,387 7,638 10,025 December ,356 7,473 9,828 Specific , , ,878 Percentage 23.45% 77.13% / VN1729 / AUGUST

11 Inclination: 5 degree, Orrientation: West Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,868 8,430 10,299 February ,701 7,231 8,932 March ,479 9,086 11,565 April ,284 7,685 9,969 May ,383 8,604 10,987 June ,435 8,057 10,491 July ,352 8,719 11,070 August ,207 7,857 10,064 September ,921 7,539 9,460 October ,019 7,600 9,619 November ,901 7,308 9,209 December ,823 7,310 9,132 Specific ,372 95, ,797 Percentage 21.00% 79.00% Inclination: 10 degree, Orientation: South Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,613 9,213 11,826 February ,629 8,983 11,612 March ,780 9,534 12,314 April ,552 8,138 10,689 May ,475 8,661 11,137 June ,603 8,370 10,973 July ,291 8,069 10,360 August ,434 8,396 10,830 September ,305 7,883 10,187 October ,219 7,345 9,565 November ,435 7,976 10,410 December ,660 8,627 11,287 Specific , , ,189 Percentage 24.83% 83.77% / VN1729 / AUGUST

12 Inclination: 10 degree, Orientation: East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,574 8,283 10,857 February ,653 8,300 10,952 March ,846 9,083 11,929 April ,300 7,085 9,384 May ,636 8,835 11,471 June ,802 8,759 11,560 July ,681 9,099 11,779 August ,473 8,302 10,775 September ,362 7,760 10,122 October ,506 7,883 10,390 November ,378 7,352 9,729 December ,577 7,696 10,273 Specific ,787 98, ,221 Percentage 25.49% 81.49% Inclination: 15 degree, Orientation: South Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,681 9,471 12,151 February ,689 9,113 11,802 March ,847 9,481 12,329 April ,555 7,994 10,548 May ,454 8,364 10,818 June ,375 7,424 9,799 July ,262 7,849 10,111 August ,472 8,040 10,512 September ,308 7,826 10,133 October ,527 8,271 10,798 November ,474 8,162 10,635 December ,724 8,906 11,631 Specific , , ,266 Percentage 25.14% 83.53% / VN1729 / AUGUST

13 Inclination: 15 degree, Orientation: East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,323 7,256 9,579 February ,694 8,127 10,821 March ,877 8,895 11,772 April ,674 8,111 10,785 May ,473 8,190 10,663 June ,833 8,687 11,519 July ,526 8,322 10,848 August ,781 9,077 11,858 September ,376 7,653 10,029 October ,522 7,793 10,315 November ,391 7,280 9,670 December ,603 7,545 10,148 Specific ,072 96, ,007 Percentage 25.72% 80.25% Inclination: 15 degree, Orientation: South-East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,733 8,968 11,701 February ,765 8,744 11,509 March ,888 9,224 12,112 April ,639 8,058 10,697 May ,114 6,848 8,962 June ,713 8,273 10,986 July ,427 8,127 10,554 August ,715 8,914 11,629 September ,373 7,754 10,126 October ,570 8,117 10,687 November ,496 7,857 10,353 December ,753 8,393 11,146 Specific ,184 99, ,460 Percentage 25.82% 82.18% / VN1729 / AUGUST

14 Inclination: 20 degree, Orientation: South Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,548 8,872 11,420 February ,713 9,219 11,932 March ,836 9,450 12,287 April ,323 7,391 9,714 May ,384 8,076 10,460 June ,480 7,704 10,184 July ,395 8,134 10,529 August ,554 8,640 11,194 September ,288 7,749 10,037 October ,530 8,289 10,819 November ,504 8,307 10,811 December ,438 8,196 10,635 Specific , , ,021 Percentage 24.83% 82.81% Inclination: 20 degree, Orientation: East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,465 7,279 9,744 February ,718 7,920 10,637 March ,893 8,654 11,547 April ,682 7,985 10,666 May ,653 8,486 11,140 June ,843 8,561 11,404 July ,731 8,812 11,543 August ,792 8,882 11,673 September ,171 6,915 9,086 October ,288 7,009 9,297 November ,393 7,151 9,544 December ,616 7,378 9,994 Specific ,245 95, ,275 Percentage 25.87% 78.67% / VN1729 / AUGUST

15 Inclination: 20 degree, Orientation: South-East Daily Daily peak time normal peak time time January ,795 9,015 11,810 February ,814 8,722 11,536 March ,909 9,097 12,006 April ,539 7,484 10,022 May ,471 7,863 10,334 June ,683 8,013 10,696 July ,367 7,451 9,818 August ,703 8,661 11,364 September ,371 7,647 10,018 October ,590 8,079 10,668 November ,529 7,892 10,420 December ,627 7,917 10,545 Specific ,398 97, ,238 Percentage 25.99% 81.00% ooo / VN1729 / AUGUST