Development of Tropical cyclone objective analysis technique based on FY serial satellite data

Transcription

1 2 nd International Workshop On Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC-2) Update on Objective Satellite-Based TC Analysis Methods 18 February 2016 Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Development of Tropical cyclone objective analysis technique based on FY serial satellite data Chunyi XIANG National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration (CMA)

2 Contents: 1. Development of FY meteorological satellites 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Development of application techniques 4. Development of analysis software

3 1 Development of FY meteorological satellite FY-2China started to develop its geostationary meteorological satellites and associated ground application systems from the 1980s. The first group includes FY-2A, and FY-2B. two experimental satellites The second group includes FY-2C, FY-2D and FY-2E. five channels The last group has FY-2F, FY-2G and FY-2H. consistent and transition FY-2E( E),FY-2G(105 0 E), FY-2F( E) FY-2E IR(SCS) FY-2G VIS(NWP)

4 1 Development of FY meteorological satellite FY-3 satellites are designed to enhance China s three dimensional atmospheric sounding capability and global data acquisition capability, in an effort to collect more cloud and surface characteristics FY-3Aand FY-3Bin the first group were launched on May 7, 2008 and November 5, 2010, respectively. FY-3Cat the second group satellites has been launched on Sep 23, 2013 with a further enhanced remote sensing capability FY-3B sea fog monitoring FY-3A sea ice monitoring

5 1 Development of FY meteorological satellite FY-4series is China's second generation geostationary meteorological satellites. The satellite attitude is three-axis stabilized to improve the time resolution of observations and regional mobility. An optical satellite will carry onboard a 14-channel 2D scanning imager, an interferometric vertical detector, a lightning imager, CCD camera and an earth radiation budget instrument. The satellite produces earth disc imageries every 15 minutes and with resolution of 0.5~2km. FY-4 will be launched in NOV,2016.

6 1 Development of FY meteorological satellite More and more products been developed for typhoon and marine meteorological forecasts: Polar orbit satellites Stationary satellites Names of satellite inversed products Regional rapid scanning image and animation Vapor, infrared, Could derived wind Convergence and divergence of upper-level winds Sea-fog monitoring image Precipitation estimation image Inversed Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Cloud classification image Tropical cyclone TBB and precipitation image Microwave temperature 3D structure image Sea-fog monitoring image Inversed Sea surface wind High resolution RGB monitoring image Frequencies 6min 6hr 6hr 30min 6min~1hr 1hr 1hr 1~2times/day 1~2times/day 1~2times/day 1~2times/day 1~2times/day

7 1 FY-2G Regional rapid scanning animation during 6 th Aug, 2015 for 1513 Soudelor Development of FY meteorological satellite Lat:10 0 N~30 0 N

8 1 Development of FY meteorological satellite Microwave temperature 3D structure animation during 18 th Jul, 2014 for 1409 Rammasun

9 Contents: 1. Development of FY meteorological satellites 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Development of application techniques 4. Development of analysis software

10 2 Development of objective estimation system Based on Dvorak technique, an advanced tropical cyclone intensity objective estimation system was co-developed in 2010 with CIMSS usingbothfy2data andmtsatdata.

11 2 Development of objective estimation system Data resources: FY2E/F/G RH1 (CSV format) MTSAT-1/2RH1 (SVSformat ) MTSAT-1/2 Vapor (HDF format ) Basic functions If put in the initial center of TC by moving computer mouse or subjective analysis, the system would automatically give the cloud analyzing type, CI index, MSLP, VMAX, center-eye region temp., cloud region temp. et al.

12 2 Development of objective estimation system The flow chart Cloud type DT PT CI

13 2 Development of objective estimation system Step 1 : First-guess position GM (1,1) 表示 1 阶的 1 个变量的模型, 设 X 为非负序列 0 X = x (1), x (2),..., x ( )), 0 ( n X 1为 X 的一次累加序列 : 0 X 1 = ( x1(1), x1(2),..., x1 ( n)), 其中 x1 ( k) = x0 ( i), k = 1,2,..., n ; Z 1为 X 1的紧邻均值生成序列 : Z 1 = ( z1(1), z1(2),..., z1( n)), 其中 1 z 1 ( k) = ( x1( k) + x1( k 1)), k = 1,2,..., n, 2 称 x 0 ( k) + az1( k) = b 为 GM (1,1) 的基本形式 若 a = x0 (2) Z1(2) 1 [ a, b] T x0 (3) Z1(3) 1 为参数列, 且 Y =, B =, M M M x0 ( n) Z1( n) 1 则 GM (1,1) 模型 x0 ( k) + az1 ( k) = b 的最小二乘估计参数列满足 : k i= 1 T T 1 T a [ a, b] ( B B) B Y = =, 可得预测公式 : u x k e x e a (0) a (0) ( + 1) = (1 )[ (1) ] ak

14 2 Development of objective estimation system Step 2 : Spiral Centering

15 2 Development of objective estimation system Step 3 : Ring Fitting

16 2 Development of objective estimation system ThissystembeganitsexperimentaluseinAug,2010. During 2010 and 2011, the comparison between BT, experimental MSLP resultshavea7.4~10.6hpaerrors. Since 2012, this system start to operational use and give an automatic analysis during typhoon seasons.

17 2 Development of objective estimation system Cases of Super TY show that objective estimation system has competent ability for strong TCs compared with other observations 0608 Super TY Saomi (17BJT 10 th AUG, 2006) 1013 Super TY Megi (20BJT 17 th OCT, 2010) 1409 Super TY Rammasun (14BJT 18 th JUL, 2014 ) ADT analysis: 937.3hPa,54m/s(17BJT 10 th AUG, 2006 ) Surface Observation: 936.4hPa,42.1m/s(2006 年 8 月 10 日 17 时 17BJT 10 th AUG, 2006 ) ADT analysis: 896hPa,74m/s (20BJT 17 th OCT, 2010 ) Aircraft observation: 893hPa,78.2m/s (20BJT 17 th OCT, 2010 ) ADT analysis: 891.7hPa,75m/s (14BJT 18 th JUL, 2014 ) Surface Observation: 899.2hPa,anemoscope damaged (13:50BJT 18 th JUL, 2014 )

18 Contents: 1. Development of FY meteorological satellites 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Development of application techniques 4. Development of analysis software

19 3 Development of application techniques Based on FY-2F reginal rapid scanning, a cloud-tracking method has been developed to quantitatively measure the inner structure change of tropical cyclone.

20 3 Development of application techniques Developed some new automatic positioning methods Method 1 based on ellipse fitting technique Best Track position Automatic position Load in satellite image Extract gradient direction Extract rotation direction Rotated line ellipse fitting Semi-long axis clustering Averaged center of ellipse

21 3 Development of application techniques Method 2 based on spiral fitting technique Extract the longest trend line Estimated Center Find the longest counterclockwise line Real Center Fitting equation Estimated Center

22 3 Development of application techniques Method 3 based inflection points technique

23 3 Development of application techniques Based on FY-3 polar orbit multi-channels data and microwave radiation characterize analysis, IWPI image can indicate the location of TCs strong precipitation

24 3 Development of application techniques Microwave image to analyze thevertical structure of tropical cyclones Affected by terrain, warm center structure of Middle and Upper atmosphere inclined Warm center strong precipitation area Double warm center Typhoon will weaken due to intrusion of the cold air in the upper atmosphere

25 3 Development of application techniques Multi-merged Sea surface temperature and TCHP

26 3 Development of application techniques Based on FY-3B/C microwave imager (MWRI), an estimation method has been developed to analysis tropical cyclone intensity. The case of Super TY Neoguriat 00:26 7 th Jul,2014

27 3 Development of application techniques Based on FY-2G and ASCAT, an merged method has been developed to analysis tropical cyclone structure.

28 3 Development of application techniques Based on FY-2E, an estimation precipitation product has been developed to realize the structure and possible influence Super TY Rammasun 1415 STY Kalmaegi

29 Contents: 1. Development of FY meteorological satellites 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Development of application techniques 4. Development of analysis software

30 4 Development of analysis software SWAP(Satellite Weather Application Platform) developed in 2010 and started operational use in Its based on FY-2 data and developed its special version for typhoon and marine forecast in This software has been updated in late 2015.

31 4 Development of analysis software Based on FY-2, SWAP has been developed to analysis original satellite image. Basic functions including zoom-in, special visualization, adding meteorological data et, al.

32 4 Development of analysis software Special function for tropical cyclone analysis such as track and intensity, position and re-position, extract low-vapor region, spiral line fitting et. Al.

33 4 Development of analysis software HY-2Sea surface wind and FY-2GIR FY-2G Merged Sea Surface Temperature

34 Thank you!