DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN

Transcription

1 DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN 3 rd November 2014 Hot Spot Water balance anomaly in time period of 6 months, from 1 st April to 27 th October, was high above the average value. In majority part of the Balkan Peninsula, average was exceeded for more than 240 mm. Water balance in western part of Turkey was also above the average, from about 60 to more than 240 mm. Average water balance was detected in southern Greece and eastern Romania, meanwhile negative anomalies were detected in Moldova, Romania in Carpathian Mountains and in eastern part of Turkey. Air temperatures and surface water balance 60-days Average Air Temperature Anomaly ( C) 60-days Average Air Temperature Percentile Classes Average air temperatures for 60-days period from 29 th August to 27 th October was classified in 33 % of the warmest years in the record. In the north part of the region air temperatures exceeded average values for about 1 C, in the eastern Hungary and northwestern Romania even up to 1.5 C. Colder than usual was in some scattered parts of the southern part of the region, in Albania, Bulgaria and continental part of Greece, for about 1 C and at the southern border of Turkey, from 1 to 1.5 C. 1

2 60-days Accumulated Water Balance (mm) 60-days Accumulated Water Balance Percentile Classes Water balance values for 60-days period from 29 th August to 27 th October were still classified as wet in almost the whole region, only in majority part of Romania and in Moldova normal values were recorded. In many areas from Slovenia and Hungary at the northwest to the Bulgaria at the southeast and also in western part of Turkey water balance was classified among the wettest 5 % of the year in the record. Water balance anomalies at the Balkan Peninsula vary from region to region, from 30 mm above the average in southern Bosnia and Herzegovina, central Serbia and southern Greece to more than 210 mm in belt from southeastern Slovenia, through Croatia to northwestern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina and also in parts of western Bulgaria. High water balance anomalies were detected also in parts of Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro. Negative water balance anomalies were recorded in Moldova and Romania; water deficit were up to 60 mm. Anomalies in western part of Turkey ranged from 30 to 150 mm above the long-term average, while at the east values were around the normal. SPI Index and Impact reports Maps of Standardized Precipitation Index in October did not detect any dry conditions in the region as no impact reports due to drought were noticed. 2

3 Remote sensing - Fraction of vegetation cover State of vegetation, assessed by remote sensing (FVC fraction of vegetation cover) is presented for a few locations in the region for vegetation season (from April further on) up to 31 st October It is comparable to the reference period (average ) and years 2007 and Monthly accumulation of anomaly of the FVC values is presented on the map at the end. BOSNIA and HERZEGOVNA (REPUBLIC of SRPSKA) Region Lijevče polje - Laktasi Bijeljina Trebinje Values of FVC index at the end of October in all of the three chosen location in Bosnia and Herzegovina were high above reference period. FVC had been high above average already in September, in October it only slightly decreased. Bitola FYRO MACEDONIA Tikveš Region Kavadarci 3

4 Ovče Pole Region - Lozovo FVC was in FYRO Macedonia also high above reference values and other chosen years. In Ovče Pole Region values even increased. SERBIA Smederevsko vinogorje Malo Orasje Vrsacko vinogorje Veliko Srediste Niš FVC had slowly descending from the end of August in all three chosen location in Serbia. At the location Malo Orašje and Niš at the end of October FVC values were above the normal, but in Veliko Srediste they were equal to the average values. SLOVENIA Prekmurje Region Murska Sobota Dolenjska Region Novo mesto FVC values in Slovenia dropped below the average values in October in Prekmurje and Dolenjska Region, due to the excess of water and floods. 4

5 MONTENEGRO Podgorica HUNGARY Eger FVC values in Podgorica (Montenegro) were almost constant and high above average since July. In October values drew nearer to the average due to the ascending of the reference values. FVC also remains above the average near Eger (Hungay). MOLDOVA BULGARIA Chisinau Varna Values of FVC index near Chisinau (Moldova) had equated with reference values already in August and dropped below the average in October. In Varna (Bulgaria) FVC values were above the average until the middle of September, when they fall slightly below. ROMANIA TURKEY Bucovina Meander delta In October FVC values also approached to the average in Bucovina (Romania), meanwhile values were high above it from the end of April. Dry conditions in Turkey, Meander delta, reflected in FVC values until July, when they were below reference level. The situation had improved in August, since then FVC was above average until the end of the October. 5

6 Anomaly of monthly accumulated fraction of vegetation cover (FVC computed from available archive of EUMETSAT s LANDSAF database) recorded on 30 th October 2014, showed similar situation as at the end of September. There was only slight decrease of vegetation cover in some small scattered isolated parts in the region. Outlook According to the model simulations of the 60-days accumulated water balance (mm) for the time period from 8 th September to 6 th November is expected that water deficit in Moldova in Romania will slightly decrease, while at the rest of the Balkan Peninsula positive water balance will increase. Water deficit in majority part of Turkey will decrease. Methodology Drought monitoring bulletin is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations over SE Europe and SPI index calculations. Precipitation data is provided by Global Precipitation data Centre (GPCC; gpcc.dwd.de). NWP simulations are performed with Nonhydrostatical Meso-scale Model (NMM, see: Historical DMCSEE model climatology was computed with NMM model for time period between 1st January 1979 and 31st December European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data set (see: was used as input for simulations. Long term averages ( ), used for comparison of current weather conditions, are obtained from simulated data set. Comparison of current values to long term averages provides signal on potential ongoing drought severity. 6