A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE SNOW STUDIES IN TURKEY. Prof.Dr. A. Ünal ŞORMAN 1,2

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1 A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE SNOW STUDIES IN TURKEY Prof.Dr. A. Ünal ŞORMAN 1,2 Aynur Şensoy 3, Arda Şorman 3, Gökçen Uysal 3, Cansaran Ertaş 3, Bulut Akkol 3, Cihan Çoşkun 3 1 N e a r E a s t U n i v e r s i t y, N o r t h e r n C y p r u s T u r k i s h R e p u b l i c 2 M i d d l e E a s t T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y, A n k a r a, T u r k e y 3 A n a d o l u U n i v e r s i t y, E s k i ş e h i r, T u r k e y

2 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKEY bridges Europe and Asia continents Area: 770,000 km 2 Population: 77 million

3 TOPOGRAPHY OF TURKEY Mean Elevation 1140 m Mean Slope 17.3%

4 SNOW POTENTIAL OF TURKEY Hypsometric mean elevation is about 1140 m. Snow is major component in the mountanious Eastern Part. Selection of a pilot area 23 February 2016 NOAA Web Site

5 MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH CASCADE DAMS IN EUPHRATES RIVER Keban Dam Karakaya Dam Birecik Dam Atatürk Dam Karkamış Dam INSTALLED CAPACITY: MW ENERGY PRODUCTION: GWh/year

6 UPPER EUPHRATES BASIN (KARASU BASIN) 60 70% of the total runoff volume originates during snowmelt period.

7 UPPER EUPHRATES BASIN (KARASU BASIN) The main land-cover types are pasture, cultivated land and bareland. Elevation zones Elevation range (m) Area (km 2 ) Hypsometric Mean Elevation (m) Slope (%) Karasu

8 SCOPE & INNOVATION Instrumentation for snow measurements on the network is improved with the help of projects. Product validation and usage of satellite data in hydrovalidation and impact analysis studies. It is aimed to deploy an operational hydrologic forecast system in snow dominated mountainous headwater basins in Turkey. The main motivation is the exploitation of deterministic and probabilistic flow forecasts for the first time in Turkey within an operational hydrologic forecasting system.

9 PROJECTS CONDUCTED NATO Science for Stability (SfS), Turkish State Planning Organization (DPT), Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council (TÜBİTAK), METU and AU Scientific Research Projects (BAP), EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facilities in Hydrology (H-SAF), COST Project,

10 SNOW MEASUREMENTS Late 1960 s by manual snow courses ~ 175 stations Early 2000 s automatic SnoTel ~ 35 stations

11 SNOW MEASUREMENTS GUZELYAYLA 2001 GUZELYAYLA 2015 COST, Helsinki,

12 SNOW PILLOW ~ 3 m diameter Şensoy A, Şorman AA, Tekeli AE, Şorman AÜ, Garen DC "Point-scale energy and mass balance snowpack simulations in the upper Karasu basin, Turkey" HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 20 (4), , 2006

13 SNOW LYSIMETER Tekeli AE, Şorman AA, Şensoy A, Şorman AÜ, Bonta J,Schaeffer G "Snowmelt Lysimeters for Real-Time Snowmelt Studies in Turkey" Turkish Journal of Eng. and Env. Sciences, 29, 29-40, 2005

14 ALBEDO Tekeli AE, Şensoy A, Şorman AA, Akyürek Z, Şorman AÜ "Accuracy assessment of MODIS daily snow albedo retrievals with in situ measurements in Karasu basin, Turkey" HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 20 (4): , 2006

15 SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT

16 PALANDÖKEN SNOTEL (2610 M) 16

17 SNOW PIT ANALYSIS

18 SNOW PIT ANALYSIS ON Layer No Snow Depth (cm) Snow Temp ( 0 C) Grain Size (mm) Snow Weight (g) Snow Density

19 SNOW PIT ANALYSIS

20 SNOW PIT ANALYSIS

21 H-SAF PROJECT H10 (Snow Recognition) Coverage: N lat, 25 W-45 E long Cycle: Daily Resolution: 1 to 5 km

22 H-SAF PROJECT H13 (Snow Water Equivalent) Coverage: N lat, 25 W-45 E long Cycle: Daily/weekly Resolution: km (0.25 degrees) SWE(m m)

23 SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT Sorman, A. U. and Beser, O. Determination of snow water equivalent over the eastern part of Turkey using passive microwave data. Hydrological Processes, 2, , 2013

24 SATELLITE MONITORING (KARASU & MURAT BASINS) MODIS IMS MSG-SEVIRI Tekeli AE, Akyürek Z, Şorman AA, Şensoy A, Şorman AÜ "Using MODIS snow cover maps in modeling snowmelt runoff process in the eastern part of Turkey" REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT 97 (2): , 2005 Şorman AÜ, Akyürek Z, Şensoy A, Şorman AA, Tekeli AE "Commentary on comparison of MODIS snow cover and albedo products with ground observations over the mountainous terrain of Turkey" HYDROLOGICAL EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE, 11, , 2007

25 SNOW DEPLETION CURVES (SDC) Şensoy A, Uysal G "The Value of Snow Depletion Forecasting Methods Towards Operational Snowmelt Runoff Estimation Using MODIS and Numerical Weather Prediction Data", WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, 26, , 2012

26 RUNOFF FORECASTING STUDIES

27 HYDROLOGICAL MODELING Conceptual Models (SRM, Martinec et al., 2008) (HBV, Lindströmet al., 1997) Physically Based Models Data Driven Models SNOBAL(Marks et al., 1999) SNOBAL(Marks et al., 1999)

28 NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION DATA - Deterministic (0-2 days) MM5, ALADIN, WRF 0.05 o (~4.5 km) Spatial Resolution - Ensemble (0-15 gün) ECMWF EPS 51 members 0.3 o (~30 km) Spatial Resolution

29 MODEL OUTPUTS (2015) Runoff SCA SWE SM

30 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK Streamflow forecasting accounting snow accumulation and melt is a major topic for Turkey due to flooding and hydropower Flood early warning may decrease inundation risk and related damages Flow forecasts assist the short-term operation of reservoirs and HEPP and increase their economic value Data Assimilation and probabilistic forecasting are necessary tools to issue accurate and robust forecasts Interdisciplinary work brings together staff from the government, private sector, academia providing an environment for sharing knowledge and creating beneficial results for all members.

31 THANK YOU Prof.Dr. A. Ünal Şorman