APEC Training Course on QPE / QPF. Part A - Overview. Rainfall-Related Related Warning Systems Practiced by a NMHS
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1 APEC Training Course on QPE / QPF Rainfall-Related Related Warning Systems Practiced by a NMHS Part A - Overview Linus H.Y. Yeung, Scientific Officer, Hong Kong Observatory 29 March 2012 Quezon City, Philippines
2 Hong Kong Experience
3 Some Facts about Hong Kong Population: : 7.07 million (mid 2010) Area: ~ 1,104 sq. km Averaged no. of TCs affecting Hong Kong: 6.14 / yr ( ) Mean annual rainfall ( ): 1,400 ~ 3,000 mm (location dependent); ; 2,398.5 mm at HKO Highest yearly rainfall (HKO): mm (1997) Highest hourly rainfall (HKO( HKO): mm 8-99 am, 7 June 2008 Highest hourly mean wind speed: 133 km/h T. Wanda on 1 September 1962 Maximum wind gust: 259 km/h T. Wanda on 1 September 1962 APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 3
4 Rainfall Distribution in Hong Kong Average annual rainfall distribution (mm) over Hong Kong between with a peak over 3,000 mm Rainfall distribution (mm) over Hong Kong on 2 July 1997 with a peak over 700 mm APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 4
5 Severe Weather Climatology Major convective weather systems in HK : cold front, convergence line, SW monsoon, monsoon trough, tropical cyclone, land-seabreeze occurrence of severe weathers/warnings: Weather Hazards Period Duration Total Number Frequency start end (years) (no. / year) Thunder/Lighting warnings 80.6 Amber Rainstorm warnings 22.1 Severe Squalls days 10.7 Red Rainstorm warnings 4.7 Flooding announcements 4.7 Landslip warnings 3.4 Black Rainstorm warnings 1.2 Hail reports 0.9 Waterspout reports 0.7 Tornado reports 0.3 APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 5
6 Contingency Plan for Natural Disasters
7 Contingency Plan for Natural Disasters of the HKSARG Security Bureau Emergency Support Unit responses to natural disasters such as rainstorms, tropical cyclones, tsunami, etc. summarises the gov.. alerting systems and organisational framework for responding to such disasters sets out functions and responsibilities of gov.. depts. and other bodies detailed operational instructions for each department monitors info. flow APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 7
8 Key Players Security Bureau (EMSC( EMSC) Education Bureau (closing of schools) Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority (cancelling of public exams) Transport Department (traffic arrangement and coordinations) Geotechnical Engineering Office (landslip) Drainage Services Department (flooding) Home Affairs Department (opening of shelters) Marine Department (sea rescues) Hong Kong Observatory (weather warnings) APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 8
9 Communication System phone & fax HKO EDB SB / EMSC Fire services Info. Services Telecom. Auth. Transport Dept. other depts. telecom operators transport operators APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 9
10 Example of message passing during inclement weather situations HKO TD public transport operators before changes of high signals of TC warning No. 3 (strong wind) No. 8 (gale wind or above) stoppage of public transportations bus, ferry and railway activation of control measures for major bridges, routes, etc. APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 10
11 Coordinations with Partnerships Preset arrangements, e.g.: closing of schools during TC work arrangement APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 11
12 Summary of CPND Elements A comprehensive emergency plan Accurate forecasts and effective warning systems (Part B refers) coordination and communication among partners & public public reception and responsiveness APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 12
13 Coordination & Communication
14 Missions of the Observatory weather monitoring round the clock timely warnings for the public render support for emergency departments and organizations APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 14
15 Severe Weather Warnings Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals No.1: Standby Signal TC within 800 km of HK No.3: Strong wind No.8: Gale or storm force wind No.9: Increasing gale or storm force winds No.10: Hurricane force wind Rainstorm Warnings Amber Signal hourly rainfall 30 mm widespread & persistent Red Signal hourly rainfall 50 mm widespread & persistent Black Signal hourly rainfall 70 mm widespread & persistent APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 15
16 Other Related Warnings Thunderstorm Warning Landslip Warning Special Announcement on Flooding in the northern New Territories APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 16
17 Public Dissemination Channles Dial-a-weather public Internet (HKO website: Twitter, YouTube, etc.) Mass media (radio, TV & press) Mobile Platforms (MyObservatory on Android, iphone, ipad, WAP, SMS) APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 17
18 HKO s Website Weather Warnings Regional Weather temp wind RH Vis Rainfall Maps Local Weather Forecast APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 18
19 Dial-a-Weather Local wx. f/c Regional Wx: temp, wind, r/f,, etc Warnings & TC Info. APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 19
20 MyObservatory Personalized Wx. Services Latest weather information specific to your location automatically delivered to your hands through GPS or other positioning methods APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 20 20
21 Suite of Products / Services Weather Warnings Local Weather Forecasts Regional Weather temp, RH, wind, vis,, etc Satellite & radar imageries Lightning location info. TC tracks UV index Astronomy and tides Weather forecast for main cities HKO@YouTube and many others APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 21
22 Weather on Social Networks (1) Home-made made videos broadcast on YouTube every Friday, reviewing weather last week and introducing scientific topics of public interest APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 22
23 Weather on Social Networks Twitter ( Weibo of Sina ( APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 23
24 Wx Dissemination Channels for Gov From: HK Observatory 10:05 am 1/6/2005 Lightning has been detected at Wanchai Tsim Sha Tsui Yuen Long SMS (warnings) FAX Gov. Dept. FTP (data) XML Dedicated lines GOWISE Telephone APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 24
25 Customized Webpages for Each Gov. Dept. Education Transport Bureau Dept. Civil Eng. Dev. Dept. APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 25
26 Outreach Activities ample preparations before rain seasons meetings with major partners mutual understanding on needs and communication protocal for early arrangement communication exercises pre-rain rain seminars for gov. depts. and public sectors listen to their ideas refresher on all warnings and precautionary measures introducing new weather services APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 26
27 Maintaining a Live Dialog when inclement weather occurs communicating weather info. through GOWISE to gov. depts GOvernment vernment Weather Information SErver timely telephone notification when warning signal is due to change effective communication backup focal point pass on key message use only standard protocal APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 27
28 Aftermath post inclement weather activities regular review on operational arrangement and warning dissemination mechanism seek public opinions revise arrangement and improve services as necessary APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 28
29 Interacting with Public
30 media conference radio pamplets / flyers APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO Internet 30
31 Public Response if They Trust + trust warning weather service safe trip home Question: how to build up public trust on occasional warning? APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 31
32 The Key to Trust / Confidence public education and outreach pursuit of scientific excellence readiness & preparedness maintain good working relationshipswi th users APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 32
33 Some Indicators - TC Casualty 热带气旋吹袭香港其间死亡或失踪人数 ( ) Casualties (dead and missing) in Hong Kong during TC situations 年死亡人數 : 年死亡人數 : 死亡或失蹤人數 年份 APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 33
34 Landslip Fatalities APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 34
35 Concluding Remarks
36 Brief History of Wx Warnings in HK Decades of continuous effort by generations of dedicated meteorologists + operational experience and feedbacks from users colours act. + f/c No service enhanced service continue to enhance to meet the needs of public ~ ~ ~ ~ APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 36
37 Increasing Demand from the Public shortening of time scales Forecast / Warning Time scale increasing population and urbanization ~ day ~ hour ~ minute TC Warning Rainstorm Warning Landslip Warning Categorized Rainstorm Warning Thunderstorm (squalls) Warning 1840 <<< APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 37
38 Timely Warnings Do we really meet the expectations of users? time scale of weather End Users prediction skill lead time provided lead time expected delivery latency Wx.. Service time taken for responses APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 38
39 Changing Expectation of Users User expectation will stagger up following the introduction of new/enhanced service The gap will always exist even new expectation if there is continuous service improvement existing expectation new gap gap enhanced service existing service APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 39
40 Managing User Expectations expectation gap service level public education & outreach Science & technology managed expectation gap narrowed enhanced service APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 40
41 Summary on Effective Warning meet the needs of public evolve as the society changes timely, precise, easily understood clear and actionable precautionary measures effective coordination / communication public education/outreach to gain trust/confidence from users expectation management APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 41
42 inform, response & live long To continue with Part B Warning Systems & Weather Watch Part C Nowcasting Support for Rainstorm & Related Warnings APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 42
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