Predictions of fog and frost
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1 Predictions of fog and frost OSTIV Meteorological Panel Antalya, September 2011 Olivier Liechti, A&K
2 Table of contents Configuration COSMO-2 / TBM for Zurich TBM Simulator Parametrized processes in TBM Verified TBM simulations
3 Nested weather models TBM global - continental - national - regional
4 Regions hydrological basins
5 regions Glatt river catchment area-elevation distribution
6 SwissNet SMART, StrW ZH StrW ZH
7 regions COSMO-DE COSMO-EU Modellgitter model grid
8 COSMO-2 grid selected grid point per region
9 Input data for TBM MeteoSwiss: COSMO-2 forecasts (hourly vertical profiles for 5 grid points covering 24 h, eight runs a day) MeteoSwiss DataWareHouse: surface observations (SwissNet, SMART, StrW ZH, stündlich) Experimental period 01. October March 2009 (six months)
10 vertical profiles dewpoint temperature Obs COSMO topography skin-temperature
11 temperature dewpoint visibility (h/v) radiation
12 Parametrized processes in TBM the grass temperature drops up to 5 C below the 2m temperature and controls the longwave radiation of the ground (no soil model is used). wind reduces the longwave radiative cooling condensation either as dew or on aerosols (droplets), wind favours dew formation. the range of long wave radiation absorbed/emitted by greenhouse gases is calculated (up to 50 m)
13 Parametrized processes in TBM the range of longwave radiation not absorbed by greenhouse gases depends on the liquid water content sedimentation depends on the liquid water content visibility is calculated from liquid water content
14 visibility - liquid water content VIS Kunkel (1984) [m] Gultepe (2007) Dunst Nebel Nebel Nebel Nebel Sedimentation q c [g/kg] stabil instabil partielle Emissivität volle Emissivität
15 19./20. October 2008, 14 h calibration night
16 12./13. October 2008, 17 h mist fog dissipation
17 12./13. October 2008, 14 h dissipation mist fog
18 12./13. October 2008, 11 h mist dissipation
19 24./25. October 2008, 17 h dissipation mist fog
20 four phases of radiation fog - COSMO-TGM, 24./25. October 2008, 17 h stable surface inversion mist cloud top cooling fog mixing dense fog mixing lifting
21 3./4. November 2008, 17 h dissipation mist fog low stratus
22 Results of TBM - COSMO simulations Life cycle of radiation fog: stable surface inversion (mist), destabilization (fog, mixing), lifting to low stratus, dissipation by high clouds or solar radiation predicted wind - reduces the cooling - favours dew deposition against condensation on aerosols (mist, fog) dissipation with the shortwave radiation of the external model (COSMO) is too rapid: a TBM internal parametrization of short wave transmission needed
23 TBM - COSMO simulations (continued) In low stratus TBM and COSMO interfere The assimilation of observations must be extended to liquid water content when stations are in mist/fog/cloud TBM significantly modifies the COSMO predicted temperature, grass temperature and dewpoints and provides improved predictions of frost (2m) and ground frost (grass)
24 IR Transmission in komplexer Topographie 75% H 2 0, CO m 25% atm. Fenster 10 m km dz = 10 m Vertikale Divergenz der IR-Strahlungsströme -> dt/dt
25 G Dual band LW radiation scheme band G: greenhouse gases (H 2 0, CO 2, CH 4, NO 2,... ) band C: condensed matter (surface, clouds, aerosols) C cloud 1.0 Emissivität 100% C = 25% G = 75% Wasserdampf greenhouse gases bedeckt wolkenlos Dürr (1/7) Marty (1/8) Brunt, Baur&Philips Brutsaert Angstroem 0% lwc lwc 0 soil / water 0.2 Kohlendioxid, Methan, Ozon, Stickoxide... kalt warm Gebirge 6 12 Tiefland 18 Dampfdruck von Wasser [hpa] soil / water soil / water 25% 75%
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