A Perfect Storm: The Collision of Hurricanes, Climate Change and Coastal Population Growth. Jeff Donnelly Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Transcription

1 A Perfect Storm: The Collision of Hurricanes, Climate Change and Coastal Population Growth Jeff Donnelly Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

2 Human caused climate change CO2 ppmv Age (years before present)

3 Human caused climate change CO2 ppmv ppm in 1966 (the year I was born) Age (years before present)

4 Human caused climate change CO2 ppmv ppm today 320 ppm in 1966 (the year I was born) Age (years before present)

5 Human caused climate change ppm in 2100 if we do nothing warming of about 3.5 C (6.3 F) CO2 ppmv ppm today 320 ppm in 1966 (the year I was born) Age (years before present)

6 Human caused climate change ppm in 2100 if we do nothing warming of about 3.5 C (6.3 F) ppm in 2100 if we implement COP21 warming of about 2.2 C (4 F) CO2 ppmv 408 ppm today ppm in 1966 (the year I was born) Age (years before present)

7 Our World is Warming

8 Temperatures Will Continue to Warm RCP4.5 Similar to COP 21 RCP8.5

9 Temperatures Will Continue to Warm RCP4.5 Similar to COP 21 RCP8.5 How will warming impact sea level and hurricane activity?

10 Sea Level Change (feet) 0 IPCC AR5

11 Sea Level Change Does not include potential contributions from ice sheets (feet) 0 IPCC AR5

12 Potential Antarctic Ice Contribution 51 feet 19 feet 3 feet DeConto and Pollard, 2016 (Nature)

13 Sea Level Change On our current emissions trajectory we should expect global sea level to rise between 5 and 8 feet by 2100 if we include contributions from Antarctica (feet) 0 IPCC AR5

14 Historical hurricanes since 1851

15 Simulated hurricanes under modern climate Return Period Cat 2 7 years Cat 3 33 years Cat years 8000 years 17,354 total storms passing within 100 km of Woods Hole Cat 2 storms (green), 242 Cat 3 storms (yellow) and four Cat 4 storms (red). No Cat 5 storms were simulated.

16 What Might the Future Hold? Frequency of hurricanes may increase (particularly intense storms) From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS Using IPCC AR5 models

17 What Might the Future Hold? 28% increase globally 42% increase in Atlantic From Knutson et al., 2015 (Journal of Climate) RCP4.5

18 Hurricane Sandy billion in damage 148 fatalities

19 1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy Hurricane Sandy 1821 Hurricane Brandon et al., 2014 (Scientific Reports)

20 1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC predicted tide surge+tide 1821 Sandy 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time September 3, Water level relative to mean sea level in 1821 (m) predicted tide surge+tide 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time October 29, Water level relative to mean sea level in 2012 (m)

21 1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC 1821 ~4 m of surge predicted tide surge+tide 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time September 3, Water level relative to mean sea level in 1821 (m) Sandy ~2.75 m of surge predicted tide surge+tide 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time October 29, Water level relative to mean sea level in 2012 (m)

22 Why so much damage from Sandy?

23 Why so much damage from Sandy? Future home of Atlantic City (ca. 1833) today

24 Why so much damage from Sandy? Population growth in NJ coastal counties Atlantic Cape May Middlesex Monmouth Ocean Population Year Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

25 Population Barnstable County Population Years CE

26 Population Barnstable County Population Years CE

27 US Hurricane Damage Damage (billions of 2005 USD) year From Pielke et al., 2008

28 US Hurricane Damage But what if these storms were to strike today? Damage (billions of 2005 USD) year From Pielke et al., 2008

29 US Hurricane Damage Damage accounting for increased wealth and population Damage (billions of 2005 USD) year From Pielke et al., 2008

30 1900 Galveston US Hurricane Damage 1915 Galveston 1926 Miami 1928 Palm Beach 1938 New England 1944 Tampa/New England 1992 Andrew Sandy Damage accounting for increased wealth and population Harvey, Irma, Maria season 2005 season Damage (billions of 2005 USD) year From Pielke et al., 2008

31 1900 Galveston US Hurricane Damage 1915 Galveston 1926 Miami 1928 Palm Beach 1938 New England 1944 Tampa/New England 1992 Andrew Sandy Damage accounting for increased wealth and population Harvey, Irma, Maria 200 A Hurricane like 1821 would likely be more than a 107 billion dollar event (Swiss Re, 2014) 2004 season 2005 season Damage (billions of 2005 USD) year From Pielke et al., 2008

32 Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635

33 Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle

34 Hurricane Surge in Woods Hole What if they were to hit this season? Or in the future with 5 feet of SLR? Hurricane Bob Hurricane Bob +5 feet feet

35 Long-term Hurricane Records Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer WHOI 1 foot Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer

36 Regional Patterns

37 Summary

38 Summary Sea level is currently rising at a rate not seen in at least 6,000 years. And we should expect that it will rise several more feet by 2100 CE (and perhaps tens of feet by 2500 CE).

39 Summary Sea level is currently rising at a rate not seen in at least 6,000 years. And we should expect that it will rise several more feet by 2100 CE (and perhaps tens of feet by 2500 CE). Most modeling studies indicate we should expect more frequent intense hurricanes. But significant geographic variability is likely and uncertainty is high.

40 Summary Sea level is currently rising at a rate not seen in at least 6,000 years. And we should expect that it will rise several more feet by 2100 CE (and perhaps tens of feet by 2500 CE). Most modeling studies indicate we should expect more frequent intense hurricanes. But significant geographic variability is likely and uncertainty is high. Paleo-records suggest the climate system before human interference was capable of producing intervals of heightened hurricane activity. In many cases the activity in these intervals exceeded those experienced historically.

41 Summary The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.

42 Summary The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls. The good news is we have many tools to mitigate the impacts of hurricanes. And they no longer take us by surprise because of our excellent forecasting and monitoring abilities, and capacity for communication.

43 Further Reading: Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti Issac s Storm, Erik Larson Thank you!