KNMI Climate Explorer A tool for climate analysis [ and seasonal prediction]
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1 KNMI Climate Explorer A tool for climate analysis [ and seasonal prediction] MedCOF Training Workshop Madrid, October 2015 Jonathan Eden Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
2 An introduc+on to Climate Explorer Setup in the late 1990s to analyse the teleconnec+ons from the big El Nino event in Developed and maintained by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh at KNMI. Basically a website for making sense of climate data. Data for easy access to user. Programs for sta+s+cal analysis. Visualisa+on and plopng tools
3 An introduc+on to Climate Explorer Setup in the late 1990s to analyse the teleconnec+ons from the big El Nino event in Developed and maintained by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh at KNMI. Basically a website for making sense of climate data. Data for easy access to user. Programs for sta+s+cal analysis. Visualisa+on and plopng tools Every month: 3000 unique users. 100,000 plots peer- reviewed journal ar+cles.
4 Some key features Access climate data on a wide range of temporal scales. Correla+on and regression analysis. Generate EOFs. Calculate and analyse extremes. Download data in different formats (inc netcdf) for your own analysis. Create and download your own figures (.png,.eps). Upload your own +me series/fields. support also for repor+ng bugs!
5 As a tool for seasonal predic+on: a hands- on tutorial Quick introduc+on Examples: designed for you to follow on the website itself Analysis of +me series. Sta+s+cal comparison with other fields. Diagnosing ENSO teleconnec+ons. Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool. Climate Change Atlas
6 GePng started registra+on! climexp.knmi.nl
7 GePng started registra+on! climexp.knmi.nl Registra+on is free (of course) and only requires a name, address and ins+tute.
8 What data is available? climexp.knmi.nl Data generally split between +me series (including sta+on data) and spa+al fields. Sta+on data at daily and monthly +me scales. Climate indices (NINO indices, AMO, NAO) Reanalysis products. Climate model output. Seasonal forecasts. Decadal forecasts.
9 What data is available? climexp.knmi.nl Data generally split between +me series (including sta+on data) and spa+al fields. Sta+on data at daily and monthly +me scales. Climate indices (NINO indices, AMO, NAO) Reanalysis products. Climate model output. Seasonal forecasts. Decadal forecasts. Possibility to upload and view your own data.
10 Some examples... Click on monthly sta+on data.
11 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Click on monthly sta+on data. The GHCN- M (all) precipita+on.
12 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Click on monthly sta+on data. The GHCN- M (all) precipita+on. Type Tomboctou in sta+on field.
13 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Click on monthly sta+on data. The GHCN- M (all) precipita+on. Type Tomboctou in sta+on field. Get sta+ons
14 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Click on monthly sta+on data. The GHCN- M (all) precipita+on. Type Tomboctou in sta+on field. Get sta+ons get data
15 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Time series of monthly precip at Tomboctou. Annual cycle of precip, peaking in August.
16 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Time series of monthly precip at Tomboctou. Annual cycle of precip, peaking in August. Click view per month.
17 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Time series of monthly precip at Tomboctou. Annual cycle of precip, peaking in August. Click view per month. The August plot reveals decadal variability: drier in the 1970s and 1980s.
18 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Time series of monthly precip at Tomboctou. Annual cycle of precip, peaking in August. Click view per month. The August plot reveals decadal variability: drier in the 1970s and 1980s. Click correlate with other +me series.
19 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4
20 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months; Lag: 3 months
21 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate.
22 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate. Correlate is significant but weak.
23 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate. Correlate is significant but weak. Click correlate with a field.
24 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate. Correlate is significant but weak. Click correlate with a field. Select HadCRU4 temperature.
25 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate. Correlate is significant but weak. Click correlate with a field. Select HadCRU4 temperature. Again, select JAS and a lag of 3 months.
26 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate. Correlate is significant but weak. Click correlate with a field. Select HadCRU4 temperature. Again, select JAS and a lag of 3 months. Correlate.
27 Some examples... August rainfall in Tomboctou Is there a rela+onship between rainfall and ENSO? Click NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Jul; average over 3 months. Correlate. Correlate is significant but weak. Click correlate with a field. Select HadCRU4 temperature. Again, select JAS and a lag of 3 months. Correlate.
28 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons.
29 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons. GPCC 2.5 deg.
30 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons. GPCC 2.5 deg Correlate with +me series
31 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons. GPCC 2.5 deg. Correlate with +me series Select NINO3.4.
32 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons. GPCC 2.5 deg. Correlate with +me series Select NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Oct; averaged over 3 months
33 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons. GPCC 2.5 deg. Correlate with +me series Select NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Oct; averaged over 3 months. Correlate.
34 Compu+ng ENSO teleconnec+ons Select monthly observa+ons. GPCC 2.5 deg. Correlate with +me series Select NINO3.4. Star+ng month: Oct; averaged over 3 months. Correlate. Reveals well- known teleconnec+ons Climate Explorer allows you to focus on specific regions, seasons. Analysis extends to regression, composites etc.
35 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on.
36 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click.
37 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click. Ini+al condi+ons: 1 September Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5
38 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click. Ini+al condi+ons: 1 September Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Verifica+on: 3- month star+ng in October.
39 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click. Ini+al condi+ons: 1 September Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Verifica+on: 3- month star+ng in October. Area: South America
40 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click. Ini+al condi+ons: 1 September Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Verifica+on: 3- month star+ng in October. Area: South America Measure: correla+on of ensemble mean
41 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click. Ini+al condi+ons: 1 September Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Verifica+on: 3- month star+ng in October. Area: South America Measure: correla+on of ensemble mean Compute map
42 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Click seasonal forecast verifica+on. Select ECMWF S3 and click. Ini+al condi+ons: 1 September Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Verifica+on: 3- month star+ng in October. Area: South America Measure: correla+on of ensemble mean Compute map
43 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Measure: Quin+le RPSS wrt climatology Compute map
44 Seasonal forecast verifica+on tool Variable: mean 2m temperature Observa+ons: CRU 2.5 Measure: Quin+le RPSS wrt climatology Compute map.
45 Climate Change Atlas Click Climate Change Atlas
46 Climate Change Atlas Click Climate Change Atlas Several different op+ons select the ones you want and click Make map.
47 Climate Change Atlas Click Climate Change Atlas Several different op+ons select the ones you want and click Make map. Global temperature change plot (from IPCC AR5) very familiar but what about par+cular regions?
48 Climate Change Atlas Click Climate Change Atlas Several different op+ons select the ones you want and click Make map. Global temperature change plot (from IPCC AR5) very familiar but what about par+cular regions? Select South Europe/ Mediterranean and Make map.
49 Climate Change Atlas Click Climate Change Atlas Several different op+ons select the ones you want and click Make map. Global temperature change plot (from IPCC AR5) very familiar but what about par+cular regions? Select South Europe/ Mediterranean and Make map.
50 Climate Change Atlas How about precipita+on change?
51 Climate Change Atlas How about precipita+on change? Select variable: precipita+on and Make map.
52 Climate Change Atlas How about precipita+on change? Select variable: precipita+on and Make map. The hatching represents areas where the signal- noise ra+o is low.
53 Climate Change Atlas How about precipita+on change? Select variable: precipita+on and Make map. The hatching represents areas where the signal- noise ra+o is low. We can also look at RCP8.5 where the signal is clearer.
54 Climate Change Atlas We can also look at +me series.
55 Climate Change Atlas We can also look at +me series. Select Place and 40N 3E; approximate loca+on of Madrid.
56 Climate Change Atlas We can also look at +me series. Select Place and 40N 3E; approximate loca+on of Madrid. Select Variable : near surface temperature. Select Output : +me series.
57 Climate Change Atlas We can also look at +me series. Select Place and 40N 3E; approximate loca+on of Madrid. Select Variable : near surface temperature. Select Output : +me series. I chose to look at all scenarios.
58 Climate Change Atlas We can also look at +me series. Select Place and 40N 3E; approximate loca+on of Madrid. Select Variable : near surface temperature. Select Output : +me series. I chose to look at all scenarios. WARNING: don t do this yourself as the calcula+ons will take mins.
59 Climate Change Atlas We can also look at +me series. Select Place and 40N 3E; approximate loca+on of Madrid. Select Variable : near surface temperature. Select Output : +me series. I chose to look at all scenarios. WARNING: don t do this yourself as the calcula+ons will take mins.
60 The future of the Climate Explorer We hope that you find the Climate Explorer useful its future development is driven by its users. Sta+s+cal func+ons are usually added on an ad- hoc basis and open as a result of user feedback! Addi+on of hindcasts from ECMWF Season Forecast System 4. Possibility of dedicated funding at KNMI for future development
61 Thank you
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