THE ROLE OF OCEAN STATE INDICES IN SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THAILAND
|
|
- Ariel Campbell
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 THE ROLE OF OCEAN STATE INDICES IN SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THAILAND Manfred Koch and Werapol Bejranonda Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology, University of Kassel, Germany Keywords: Ocean state indices, climate variability, Thailand, correlations, teleconnections, prediction
2 Abstract Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean as well as with the Indian Ocean. Because this peculiar location, Thailand s local climate and its surface water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical dry and tropical wet seasons which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Because of this teleconnective oceanic impact on local climate variations in different regions of Thailand, the somewhat extreme climate pattern Thailand has seen in recent years, namely,long periods of drought in some provinces must be seen in this light, i.e. may not be attributed alone to long-term predictions of climate change from global climate models for the region. With a better understanding of these ocean-thai seasonal-weather-pattern teleconnections, water authorities in Thailand would get a tool at hand to forecast short-term extreme seasonal climate pattern in a particular region allowing them to better manage the adequate supply of surface water resources to the users. In this study the spatial and temporal relationships, i.e. teleconnections between the oceanic climates and the regional weather in Thailand are assessed by various techniques of stochastic time series analysis. Time series of the sea surface temperature (SST) and various ocean indices of the Pacific and the Indian Oceans as well as the time series of 121 meteorological stations from 5 regions across Thailand that include humidity, evaporation, temperature and rainfall during are examined using cross-correlation, linear-regression and wavelet transform methods. The results of the analyses show that the El-Niño 1+2 SST anomaly index of the Pacific Ocean correlates the strongest with the Thai local climate. The most sensitive parameters to the ocean indices are the minimum temperature at stations in the northern and northeastern inland regions of Thailand, and the number of rainy days in the eastern, central and southern, and coastal regions. In the south the rainfall varies positively with El-Niño along the Gulf of Thailand, but negatively along the Andaman Sea, with maximal correlations at lag-times of 2-4 months. Using the ocean indices as external regressors, the classical ARIMA-forecast (no external regressors) of the local climate variables temperature and rainfall could be improved significantly for the time period, with the NS-coefficient increasing from originally 0.51 to 60 and 0.32 to 0.44 for minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. However, the rainfall is not better predicted when the El Niño 1+2 SST ARIMA-EX model is employed.
3 Overview 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Study area 1.2 Objectives 2. CLIMATE ANALYSIS 2.1 Wavelet analysis 2.2 Cross-correlation 2.3 Regression analysis 3. TELECONNECTIONS 4. APPLICATION FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION 3.1 Pilot stations for application of teleconnection 3.1 Teleconnections in long-range prediction 5. CONCLUSIONS
4 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Study area (1) NN NE CC EE Indian Ocean 121 meteorological stations Pacific Ocean ± SS Kilometers meteorological station province border Thailand borderline distributed into 5 regions North (NN) Northeast (NE) Central (CC) East (EE) South (SS)
5 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Study area (2) Ocean state indexes / oscillation Indian Pacific
6 1. INTRODUCTION 1.2 Objectives Identify teleconnection existence relationship local weather - regional index by employing statistical framework Predict local weather towards the impact of climate change on water/climate by using regional indices Methods Wavelet analysis; cross-correlation, regression analysis, ARIMA models Goal To investigate the climate change impact on water resources prediction improvement by using regional indices
7 2. CLIMATE ANALYSIS / TELECONNECTIONS 2.1 Wavelet analysis min temp max temp
8 2. CLIMATE ANALYSIS / TELECONNECTIONS 2.2 Cross-correlation (1) Average cross-correlation coefficients between ocean indices and the basic meteorological time series in EE region showing Niño relates highly with the climate variables in Thailand Indices avg.evap avg.rh extr.max extr.min max.rain 24hr mean.max temp mean.min temp mean.temp Rain mm/day Indian-SETIO Indian-SWIO Indian-WTIO Pacific-EP Pacific-Nino Pacific-Nino Pacific-Nino Pacific-Nino Pacific-NOI Pacific-PDO Pacific-PNA Pacific-SOI Pacific-WP rainy.day total.rain
9 2. CLIMATE ANALYSIS / TELECONNECTIONS 2.2 Cross-correlation (2) Cross-correlation of four Niño SST indices with local monthly minimum, maximum temperature and rainfall station in EE region during Minimum temperature Maximum temperature Rainfall Niño 4 Niño 3.4 Niño 3 Niño 1+2 Lag time (month)
10 2. CLIMATE ANALYSIS / TELECONNECTIONS Average cross-correlation coefficient between El Nino 1+2 index with the basic meteorological time series of 121 stations in 5 regions showing El-Nino related highly with the evaporation and temperature in Thailand 2.2 Cross-correlation (2)! 5! 5 NN! 5! 5! 5 5! NE! 5! 5 5! 5! 5 CC EE SS ± ! Kilometers meteorological station province border Thailand borderline region cc ee ne nn ss avg. evap avg. rh extr. max extr. min max. rain. 24hr mean mean mean.max..min..temp temp temp rain. mm. day ENSO 1+2 (Nino )0.00 rainy. total. day rain
11 2. CLIMATE ANALYSIS / TELECONNECTIONS 2.3 Regression analysis Regression of El Niño 1+2 and observed minimum temperature at station during showing coefficients of determination (R 2 ) by linear-regression of annual and seasonal values (a = annual, s1=dry season [Oct-Dec] in grey dots, s2= pre-monsoon [Jan-Mar] in blue dots, s3= monsoon1 [Apr-Jun] in red dots and s4= monsoon2 [Jul-Sep] in green dots)
12 3. TELECONNECTIONS (1) Cross-correlation of minimum temperature versus Nino1+2 optimal crosscorrelation coef. lag (month) at optimal correlation ± Kilometers +0.7 Max Cross-correlation coeff. Nino 1+2 vs Min temp ± Thailand borderline Kilometers Nino 1+2 took 3 months before temp -3 Time-lag (month) at best cross-correlation Nino 1+2 vs Min Temp Thailand borderline
13 3. TELECONNECTIONS (2) -0.5 Cross-correlation of monthly rainfall versus Nino1+2 Correlation coef. +6 [NINA took 3 months after rain] Time-lag (month) at optimal correlation ± Kilometers Autocorrelation coeff (within -/+11 months) Monthly rainfall vs NINA Thailand borderline ± Kilometers -3 Time-lag (month) at best autocorrelative Monthly rainfall vs NINA Thailand borderline
14 3. TELECONNECTIONS (3) Cross-correlation of monthly rainfall vs Nino Correlation coef. EP / NP Autocorrelation coeff (within -/+11 months) Mean temp. vs EP EP / NP : Eastern Pacific Northern Pacific Oscillation ± Indian ocean side : inverse variation Pacific ocean side : direct variation Kilometers Thailand borderline
15 4. APPLICATION FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION 4.1 Pilot stations for application of teleconnections Rayong province : Seaboard Autocorrelation coeff (within -/+11 months) Mean min. temp. vs NINA Time lag -1 to -3 months from ENSO 0 El Nino 1 El Nino 34 El Nino ± Kilometers Thailand borderline Timg lag (month) Min temp Max temp
16 4. APPLICATION FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION 4.2 Teleconnections in long-range prediction (1) Verification of minimum temperature prediction up to year 2006 using various ARIMA models, based on the calibration period ARIMA (1,1,2)(2,0,2)[12] ARIMA model NS coef.= Temperature ( C) ARIMA (1,1,2)(2,0,2)[12] ARIMA (1,1,2)(2,0,1)[12] ARIMA model with Niño 1+2 (predict 2 months advance) NS coef.= ARIMA model with CGCM3 NS coef.= Time (year)
17 4. APPLICATION FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION 4.2 Teleconnections in long-range prediction (2) Model accuracy in forward prediction by AR-models the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient calibration verification prediction (1 yr) No Index No Index With Niño MxT MnT Rn MxT MnT Rn MxT MnT Rn AR ARIMA ARIMA with external regression Model
18 4. APPLICATION FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION 4.2 Teleconnections in long-range prediction (3) 1.0 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of monthly maximum temperature prediction at station in Khongyai Basin 1.0 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of monthly minimum temperature prediction at station in Khongyai Basin Nash Sutcliffe efficiency trend analysis trend analysis Nash Sutcliffe efficiency trend analysis trend analysis using nino data Calibration Verification (scenario A1B) Verification (scenario A2) Calibration Verification (scenario A1B) Verification (scenario A2) Nash Sutcliffe efficiency Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of monthly rainfall prediction in Khongyai Basin Calibration Verification (scenario A1B) Verification (scenario A2) trend analysis trend analysis
19 4. APPLICATION FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION 4.2 Teleconnections in long-range prediction (4) Nash-Sutcliff coefficient
20 5. CONCLUSIONS The Niño indices mostly relate to local Thai climate variables and local geography The strongest influence of Niño 1+2 SST on the local climate is in the premonsoon season (Jan-Mar) Teleconnection of SST and regional climate is able to improve the prediction of climate in Thailand, particularly the temperature Auto- and co-regressive models allow to create a long-range time series of local climate along with the change of SST Using a combination of selected predictors in global-scale and regional/local climate indicators provides for better long-term forecasting
Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam
Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam Dr. Nguyen Duc Hau 1, Dr. Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong 2 National Center For Hydrometeorological
More informationChiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
More informationThai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society
Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October 2017 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationThe Use of Teleconnections for short-term seasonal Climate Prediction in the eastern Seaboard of Thailand
The Use of Teleconnections for short-term seasonal Climate Prediction in the eastern Seaboard of Thailand DOI: 10.5675/ICWRER_2013 Werapol Bejranonda 1 Manfred Koch 1 1 Department of Geohydraulics and
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
More informationAssessment of the Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rainfall Amount in South-Western Nigeria
2016 Pearl Research Journals Journal of Physical Science and Environmental Studies Vol. 2 (2), pp. 23-29, August, 2016 ISSN 2467-8775 Full Length Research Paper http://pearlresearchjournals.org/journals/jpses/index.html
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions prevailed on most days in October 2016 and the winds were
More informationOVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio
OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM Domingos Mosquito Patricio domingos.mosquito@gmail.com Introduction to Mozambique /INAM Introduction to AGRICAB/SPIRITS Objectives Material & Methods Results
More informationPage 1 of 5 Home research global climate enso effects Research Effects of El Niño on world weather Precipitation Temperature Tropical Cyclones El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The
More informationANNUAL CLIMATE REPORT 2016 SRI LANKA
ANNUAL CLIMATE REPORT 2016 SRI LANKA Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology C/o Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka, Digana Village, Rajawella, Kandy, KY 20180, Sri Lanka Citation Lokuhetti, R.,
More informationJMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
More informationThe 2010/11 drought in the Horn of Africa: Monitoring and forecasts using ECMWF products
The 2010/11 drought in the Horn of Africa: Monitoring and forecasts using ECMWF products Emanuel Dutra Fredrik Wetterhall Florian Pappenberger Souhail Boussetta Gianpaolo Balsamo Linus Magnusson Slide
More informationChart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall
Last Week s Rainfall 1 Last Week s Surface Charts 2 Last month s Max Temp Forecasts: ACCESS Model Da te Model MxD1 MxD2 MxD3 MxD4 MxD5 MxD6 MxD7 MxD8 MxD9 MxD10 0 1- Aug- 18 ACC 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6
More information"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "
"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR 2001 2010" ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D. Chief, Climatology & Agrometeorology R & D Section Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2017 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions, characterised by afternoon showers and winds that are generally
More informationI C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017
Bulletin Issue October 2017 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the September 2017
More informationTHE SYNERGY OF HISTORY AND EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR ENHANCED DROUGHT AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT
THE SYNERGY OF HISTORY AND EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR ENHANCED DROUGHT AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT Kamran Emami kkemami@gmail.com Workshop on History of water crisis, old and recent issues (WG HIST) 1 Presentation
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
More informationTHE STUDY OF NUMBERS AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER PART OF THAILAND
THE STUDY OF NUMBERS AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER PART OF THAILAND Aphantree Yuttaphan 1, Sombat Chuenchooklin 2 and Somchai Baimoung 3 ABSTRACT The upper part of Thailand
More informationI C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for April 2018
No. ICPAC/02/312 Bulletin Issue May 2018 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for April 2018 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the April
More informationAtmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting
Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions prevailed in the first half of November 2016. During this
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationClimate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua
Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationMPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN
MPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN Abdul Rashid 1 Abstract: El-Nino is the dominant mod of inter- annual climate variability on a planetary scale. Its impact is associated worldwide
More informationENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Ocean Warmth Headed into Summer Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
More information2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
More informationA Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake
A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake Prepared by: Allan Chapman, MSc, PGeo Hydrologist, Chapman Geoscience Ltd., and Former Head, BC River Forecast Centre Victoria
More informationHail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States
Hail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States 1979-2012 John T. Allen jallen@iri.columbia.edu Co-author: Michael K. Tippett WWOSC 2014, Thursday August
More informationSEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION David Walland Australian Bureau of Meteorology WMO RA-V Seminar on Climate Services Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011 Overview Major climate Drivers in the region
More informationInterpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System
Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System Hiroshi OHNO Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Procedure of Seasonal Forecast (1) 1.
More informationWhat is happening to the Jamaican climate?
What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY
More informationIAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE April 2016
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE April 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in March 2016 1.1 Weak Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in March 2016 with winds that were. Light and
More informationThe Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change
The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change IPCC vs NIPCC IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body
More informationInflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments. Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch
Inflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch Inflows Water flowing into hydro storages Usually measured by monitoring the levels and outflows from hydro storages
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
More informationEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Rainfall Probability Training
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Rainfall Probability Training Training Module Malawi June 27, 2017 Version 1.0 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), (2017). El Nino-Southern
More informationNortheast River Forecast Center s
Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions
More informationFiji Islands Weather Summary December 2005 Rainfall Outlook till March 2006
Volume 5: Issue: 12 Inside this issue: In Brief and Weather Patterns 1 Table in three Months Forecast Verification and Graphs (Nadi, Labasa and Suva) Other Climatic variables and New Records Table 4 2
More informationAn El Niño Primer René Gommes Andy Bakun Graham Farmer El Niño-Southern Oscillation defined
An El Niño Primer by René Gommes, Senior Officer, Agrometeorology (FAO/SDRN) Andy Bakun, FAO Fisheries Department Graham Farmer, FAO Remote Sensing specialist El Niño-Southern Oscillation defined El Niño
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: 2018 Wildfire Season Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationClimate Variability in South Asia
Climate Variability in South Asia V. Niranjan, M. Dinesh Kumar, and Nitin Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy Contents Introduction Rainfall variability in South Asia Temporal variability
More informationIntroduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall
PAGASA-DOST ntroduction Observed Local Trends Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones Projections for the Philippines Temperature Rainfall Climate Change ssue ncreased use of fossil fuel Global Warming
More informationImpact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini
Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini alesall@iri.columbia.edu Outline: Intro/Motivation: demand-driven science, use of seasonal climate prediction, adaptation to climate
More informationMODELING MAXIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IN KATUNAYAKE REGION, SRI LANKA: A SARIMA APPROACH
MODELING MAXIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IN KATUNAYAKE REGION, SRI LANKA: A SARIMA APPROACH M.C.Alibuhtto 1 &P.A.H.R.Ariyarathna 2 1 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Applied Sciences, South
More informationTokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean-
Tokyo, 14 November 2016, TCC Training Seminar Tokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean- Yasushi MOCHIZUKI Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological
More informationNational Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012
National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012 Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE February 2016
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE February 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in January 2016 1.1 The Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in the region in January 2016. With the monsoon
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationChapter-1 Introduction
Modeling of rainfall variability and drought assessment in Sabarmati basin, Gujarat, India Chapter-1 Introduction 1.1 General Many researchers had studied variability of rainfall at spatial as well as
More informationClimate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications. What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable
Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable Bureau of Meteorology presented by Dr Jeff Sabburg Business
More informationCOUNTRY REPORT. Jakarta. July, th National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG)
The Southeastern Asia-Oceania Flash Flood COUNTRY REPORT Jakarta. July, 10-12 th 2017 National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG) Carla Feritas and Crisostimo Lobato Democratic
More informationI C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications centre
s` I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications centre Bulletin Issue July 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/303 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, June 2017 1. INTRODUCTION
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
More informationCURRENT METHODS AND PRODUCTS OF SEASONAL PREDICTION IN KENYA
CURRENT METHODS AND PRODUCTS OF SEASONAL PREDICTION IN KENYA BY Mr. PETER G. AMBENJE Deputy Director Kenya Meteorological Department Box 3259-1 NAIROBI OUTLINE Introduction Brief Geography of Kenya Brief
More informationRelationship Analysis between Runoff of Dadu River Basin and El Niño
MATEC Web of Conferences 4, 00 4 (08) ISWSO 08 https://doi.org/0.0/matecconf/084004 Relationship Analysis between Runoff of Dadu River Basin and El Niño Zujian Zou,a, Yubin He Dadu River Hydropower Development
More informationMonitoring and Prediction of Climate Extremes
Monitoring and Prediction of Climate Extremes Stephen Baxter Meteorologist, Climate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Deicing and Stormwater Management Conference ACI-NA/A4A Arlington, VA May 19, 2017 What
More informationThe South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and
More informationGlobal Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions
Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Prepared by Climate Prediction Center, NCEP November 6, 2009 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/godas/ This project to deliver
More informationWater management in a semi-arid region: an analogue algorithm approach for rainfall seasonal forecasting
Water management in a semi-arid region: an analogue algorithm approach for rainfall seasonal forecasting Maracchi G., M. Pasqui and F. Piani IBIMET-CNR Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche INTERNATIONAL
More informationSummer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
More informationProbabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for
More informationTOOLS AND DATA NEEDS FOR FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING
TOOLS AND DATA NEEDS FOR FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING Professor Richard Samson Odingo Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of Nairobi, Kenya THE NEED FOR ADEQUATE DATA AND APPROPRIATE
More informationSEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ZIMBABWE. 28 August 2017 THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
2017-18 SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ZIMBABWE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT 28 August 2017 THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM Introduction The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe
More informationICPAC. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, May 2017
s` ICPAC Bulletin Issue June 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/302 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, May 2017 For referencing within this bulletin, the Greater Horn of Africa
More information2016 Hurricane Season Preview
2016 Hurricane Season Preview Eric Uhlhorn, Ph.D. 1 2 Recap of 2015 Hurricane Season - El Niño played a significant role in activity - Atlantic activity was slightly below normal 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes,
More informationDelayed Response of the Extratropical Northern Atmosphere to ENSO: A Revisit *
Delayed Response of the Extratropical Northern Atmosphere to ENSO: A Revisit * Ruping Mo Pacific Storm Prediction Centre, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada Corresponding author s address: Ruping
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
More information1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS
Bulletin Issue January 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/03/44 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Seasonal Bulletin, Review for October to December (OND) Season 2016 For referencing within this bulletin,
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More information2003 Water Year Wrap-Up and Look Ahead
2003 Water Year Wrap-Up and Look Ahead Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Odie Bliss http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Colorado Average Annual Precipitation Map South Platte Average Precipitation
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at
More informationKUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT
T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical
More informationVariability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean
Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean Ming Feng, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Arne Biastoch, Claus Böning, Leibniz-Institut für Meeresforschung Nick Caputi, Department
More informationMozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the
More informationCLIMATE SIMULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION USING THE CPTEC/COLA ATMOSPHERIC MODEL
CLIMATE SIMULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION USING THE CPTEC/COLA ATMOSPHERIC MODEL JOSÉ A. MARENGO, IRACEMA F.A.CAVALCANTI, GILVAN SAMPAIO,
More informationAppearance of solar activity signals in Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena and monsoon climate pattern over Indonesia
Bull. Astr. Soc. India (2007) 35, 575 579 Appearance of solar activity signals in Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena and monsoon climate pattern over Indonesia Jalu Tejo Nugroho National Institute of
More informationForecasting. Theory Types Examples
Forecasting Theory Types Examples How Good Are Week Out Weather Forecasts? For forecasts greater than nine days out, weather forecasters do WORSE than the climate average forecast. Why is there predictability
More informationSupplementary appendix
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.
More informationEl Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Dr Linda Hirons and Dr Nicolas Klingaman August 2015 This report has been produced by University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science for Evidence on
More informationStefan Liess University of Minnesota Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University of Minnesota
Introducing and Finding Tripoles: A Connection Between Central Asia and the Tropical Pacific Stefan Liess University of Minnesota liess@umn.edu Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University
More informationHydro-meteorological Analysis of Langtang Khola Catchment, Nepal
Hydro-meteorological Analysis of Langtang Khola Catchment, Nepal Tirtha R. Adhikari 1, Lochan P. Devkota 1, Suresh.C Pradhan 2, Pradeep K. Mool 3 1 Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Tribhuvan
More informationSouth Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation
South Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation Bertrand Timbal, Hanh Nguyen, Robert Fawcett, Wasyl Drosdowsky and Chris Lucas CAWCR / Bureau of Meteorology Long-term SEA
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most
More informationMDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in August 2017 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions continued to prevail in the region in August 2017. The
More informationPercentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 219, August 2017 Current climate August 2017 Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal
More informationSummary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment
Summary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment The Tararua and Rimutaka ranges have a large influence on the climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment. The ranges shelter
More information