I. INTRODUCTION II. HIERARCHIC INFLUENCING FACTOR SET AND QUANTITATIVE EXPRESSION OF GRAIN SECURITY

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1 Internatonal Journal of Agrculture Innovatons and Research Volume, Issue, ISSN Onlne 9-7 Manuscrpt Processng Detals dd/mm/yyyy : Receved : 08/0/0 Accepted on : 0/0/0 Publshed : /0/0 Herarchc Analyss on Influencng Factors of Gran Securty n Henan Provnce Based on Grey Incdence Model Fan-ln Meng College of Informaton and Management Scence, Henan Agrcultural Unversty Zhengzhou 000, Chna Emal: fanln_meng@.com Bng-jun L * College of Informaton and Management Scence, Henan Agrcultural Unversty Zhengzhou 000, Chna Emal: zzlbjun@.com Na Wang College of Informaton and Management Scence, Henan Agrcultural Unversty Zhengzhou 000, Chna Emal: squwangna@.com Abstract Influencng factors of gran securty have the nature of mult-herarchy, and actng ntensty the nfluencng factors on dfferent levels s dfferent. Based on the establshed herarchc nfluencng factor set of gran securty and the comprehensve coeffcent of quanttatvely expressng gran securty n ths paper, we conduct herarchc analyss on nfluencng factors of gran securty n Henan Provnce by grey ncdence analyss model. The results of grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors n the frst herarchy and gran supply, gran demand and gran crculaton n the second herarchy of the nfluencng factor set are obtaned respectvely. The results show that gran supply has the most sgnfcant mpact on gran securty n the frst herarchy of nfluencng factors set, and that nputs of agrcultural means of producton, people's ratons and the prce ndces of agrcultural means of producton n the second herarchy of nfluencng factors set have sgnfcant mpact on gran securty. So government should tae effectve measures to mprove the comprehensve capacty of gran producton for guaranteeng gran securty. Keywords Gran Securty, Influencng Factors, Grey Incdence Model, Herarchc Analyss. usng grey ncdence analyss; Fu Qngye [] analyzed the effects of the development of bo-ethanol on gran securty n Chna by usng the evaluaton results of Chna s gran securty and grey ncdence analyss. Those research achevements provde techncal support for scentfc gudance of mprovng gran securty, but pad not or less attenton to the complexty and uncertanty of gran securty, and lac of the herarchcal acton characterstc analyss of dfferent nfluencng factors. The nfluencng factors of gran securty have the nature of mult-levels, and the acton ntensty of the nfluencng factors on dfferent levels s dfferent. Under the exstng research results, ths paper attempts to establsh the herarchc nfluencng factor set of gran securty based on gran supply, gran demand and gran crculaton, put forward the comprehensve ndex of expressng gran securty, conduct the herarchc analyss on nfluencng factors of gran securty n Henan Provnce by grey ncdence analyss model, and provde a theoretcal bass for formulatng reasonable and effectve gran securty polces. I. INTRODUCTION Gran securty s a bg problem related to natonal economy and people s lvelhood. Varous countres n the world pay hgh attenton to t. As the frst bg provnce for agrculture, gran producton and populaton n chna, Henan Provnce plays an mportant and specal role n ensurng chna s gran securty. Therefore, the gran securty problem from Henan Provnce s not allowed to neglect at any tme. As we now, there are many nds of factors nfluencng on gran securty. Many scholars researched on the relatonshp among the complex nfluencng factors of gran securty at dfferent angles or n dfferent methods, and have made a seres of research achevements. Song Xaoqng [] sought the ey nfluencng factors of gran securty by usng comparatve analyss and space measurng analyss; Lu Xng [] analyzed the nfluencng factors from the ln of producton and crculaton n Northeast Chna; Reference []-[] respectvely analyzed the nfluencng factors of gran securty n unnan Provnce, Zhejang Provnce and Helongjang Provnce by The wor was supported n part by the Soft-scence Foundaton of Henan Provnce 00077; Innovaton Scentsts and Techncans Troop Constructon Projects of Henan Provnce Copyrght 0 IJAIR, All rght reserved II. HIERARCHIC INFLUENCING FACTOR SET AND QUANTITATIVE EXPRESSION OF GRAIN SECURIT A. Influencng factor set of gran securty Gran securty s complex system engneerng, nvolved wth socal, economc, technologcal, etc. varous aspects. Gran supply, gran demand, gran crculaton and other lns all can affect gran securty. Startng wth the above aspects, ths paper chooses representatve nfluencng factors as researchng objects of gran securty and establshes the herarchc nfluencng factor set by reference to the exstng researches and overall consderaton of the prncples of systemc nature, relatve ndependence, and the avalablty of nfluencng factor s sample data, shown n Table I. B. Quanttatve expresson of gran securty The rs of gran securty come from the aspects and lns of gran system, and the rs degree n dfferent lns s dfferent. So t s dffcult to employ only one ndex for comprehensvely and completely judgng and expressng the stuaton of gran securty from the whole naton regon. To solve ths problem, here ntroduces the comprehensve coeffcent of gran securty [7], and chooses ndexes, ncludng self-supply rate of gran Z, per capta gran

2 Internatonal Journal of Agrculture Innovatons and Research Volume, Issue, ISSN Onlne 9-7 possesson L, gran yeld per hectare D, farmland areas per person G, and fluctuaton coeffcent of gran producton B, whch can be feasble to express and descrbe the entre stuaton of gran securty objectvely, and have strong operablty. After normalzng, the ndexes are denoted as Z, L, D, G, B respectvely. Then based on carryng on these ndexes normalzed weghtng processng, we can obtan comprehensve coeffcent of gran securty F by. F = W Z L D G B Where, W, W, W, W, W are the weghts of ndexes, they can be obtaned by Delph method. Table I: Influencng factor set of gran securty Frst Herarchy Code Second Herarchy Code Measure Unt The employed persons of farmng forestry anmal husbandry and fshery X 0 persons supply X demand crculaton Z ear end area of plow land n use X 0 7 m Total power of agrcultural machnery X 0 w Effectve rrgated area X 0 7 m Consumpton of chemcal fertlzer by 00 effectve component X Copyrght 0 IJAIR, All rght reserved g Consumpton of chemcal pestcdes X 0 7 g Plastc flm use for agrcultural X g Electrcty consumpton n rural X wh gran plantng area X m Raton consumpton of per capta Kg / person Output of feed 0 7 g Output of alcoholc beverages 0 7 g Output of nstant noodles 0 7 g Output of quc-frozen rce and wheat flour foods 0 7 g Total populaton 0 persons Growth rate of output of gran Z Engel s coeffcent n rural area Z Retal prce ndes of food Z Prce ndces of agrcultural means of producton Z III. GRE INCIDENCE ANALSIS MODEL The grey ncdence analyss, proposed by Professor Deng Julong n 98, s one of the most mportant decson-mang methods n Grey Systems Theory. The conventonal grey ncdence analyss s called Deng s ncdence analyss. It s a method that can descrbe and compare the stuaton of system development quanttatvely. Accordng to the bass of math and the prncple of grey ncdence four axoms, t can determne ncdence coeffcent and ncdence degree between reference sequence and comparson sequence. Snce Deng Julong [8] proposed the grey ncdence analyss model, Consumer prce ndces of gran Z Self-supply rate of gran Z consderng the dfferent characterstcs of research objects, Xao Xnpng [9] proposed ponts degree of ncdence and nterval degree of ncdence II, Lu Sfeng [0-] proposed absolute degree of grey ncdence, relatve degree of grey ncdence,and synthetc degree of grey ncdence, Wang Qngyn [] proposed B type degree of ncdence and C type degree of ncdence, Tang Xangwu [] proposed T type degree of ncdence, Dang aoguo [] proposed slope degree of ncdence and nterval degree of grey ncdence I, and Xong Jnpng [] proposed vector degree of ncdence and complex degree of ncdence.

3 Internatonal Journal of Agrculture Innovatons and Research Volume, Issue, ISSN Onlne 9-7 Based on the actual stuaton of gran securty, we conduct herarchc analyss of nfluencng factors of gran securty n Henan Provnce by usng Deng s grey ncdence analyss model n ths paper. The basc prncple and steps are as follows: Supposes that the system characterstc behavor sequence s X 0 = x0, x0, L, x0 n ; System's correlaton factor sequence s X = x, x, x n =,, K, m. For ξ 0,,let mn mn x0 x + ξ max max x0 x ξ0 = x x + ξ max max x x 0 0 n = 0 0 n γ X, X = ξ Where,ξ s the dstngushng coeffcent, commonly taes 0.. ξ s the ncdence coeffcent. γ X, X s 0 0 called Deng nterrelatedness, relatve nterrelatedness or general nterrelatedness. Ths paper chooses the most popular Deng nterrelatedness to do grey ncdence analyss. Its general steps are as follows: The frst step: Calculate the ntal mage of every sequence. Let ' ' ' ' X = X / x = x, x, x n = 0,,, m The second step: Calculate the absolute dfference sequence, denoted as ' ' = x x, 0 =,, L, n =,, m The thrd step: Calculate the mnmum dfference and the maxmum dfference, denoted as M = max max, m = mn mn The fourth step: Calculate the ncdence coeffcent m + ξm γ 0 =, ξ 0, 7 + ξm =,, n ; =,, m The ffth step: Calculate the grey ncdence degree n γ = γ ; =,, m n = IV. HIERARCHIC ANALSIS ON INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN SECURIT IN HENAN PROVINCE A. The calculaton of gran securty comprehensve coeffcent n Henan Provnce Usng Statstcal earboo of Henan 0 [7], we can obtan the data of calculatng gran securty comprehensve coeffcents n Henan Provnce. Based on the data, weghts of Z L D G B n are gven as 0., 0., 0., 0., 0. respectvely, then we can obtan the gran securty comprehensve coeffcents from 000 to 0, shown n Table II. Table II: The comprehensve coeffcents of gran securty of Henan Provnce from 000 to 0 ear F B. The herarchc analyss on nfluencng factors of gran securty n Henan Provnce The frst herarchy analyss of nfluencng factors To quanttatvely descrbe gran supply, gran demand and gran crculaton n the frst herarchy of nfluencng factor set, where, gran supply s expressed by gran yeld X ; gran demand s expressed by the total of raton consumpton, output of feed and output of food ndustry; gran crculaton s expressed by the average value Z of all factors ncludng n the ndex. Regardng F n Table II as the behavoral sequence, and data of X, and Z obtaned from Statstcal earboo of Henan 0 [7] as the related factor sequences. Then usng and, we can obtan the results of grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors n the frst herarchy of the nfluencng factor set, shown n Table III. From Table III, n the frst herarchy of the nfluencng factor set, the ncdence order of nfluencng factors of gran securty n Henan Provnce s: gran yeld X f gran crculaton Z f gran demand.the bggest nfluencng factor s gran supply, the second s gran crculaton, and the thrd s gran demand. Therefore, to mprove gran securty stuaton, government should not only emphasze gran demand and gran crculaton, but also pay great attenton to gran supply. Table III: Grey ncdence analyss of gran securty gran supply, gran demand and gran maret crculaton n Henan Provnce from 000 to 0 Gran eld X Gran Demand Gran Crculaton Z Degree of ncdence Incdence order Copyrght 0 IJAIR, All rght reserved 8

4 Internatonal Journal of Agrculture Innovatons and Research Volume, Issue, ISSN Onlne 9-7 The second herarchy analyss of nfluencng factors Usng Statstcal earboo of Henan 0 [7], we can obtan respectvely the data of nfluencng factors of gran supply, gran demand, and gran crculaton. Frst, regardng X as the behavoral sequence, and X X X X X X X 7 X 8 X 9 as the related factor sequences. Then usng and,we can obtan the results of grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors of gran supply n the second herarchy of the nfluencng factor set, shown n Table IV. ear Table IV: grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors of gran supply n Henan Provnce from 000 to 0 X X X X X X X X X Degree of ncdence Incdence order From Table IV, the ncdence order of nfluencng factors of gran supply n Henan Provnce s: consumpton of chemcal pestcdes X f consumpton of chemcal fertlzer by 00 effectve component X f plastc flm use for agrcultural X f effectve rrgated area X f 7 gran plantng area X f year-end area of plow land n 9 use X f total power of agrcultural machnery X f the employed persons of farmng forestry anmal husbandry and fshery X f electrcty consumpton n rural X. 8 Second, regardng as the behavoral sequence, and as the related factor sequences, then usng and, we can obtan the results of grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors of gran demand n the second herarchy of the nfluencng factor set, shown n Table V. Table V: Grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors of gran demand n Henan Provnce from 000 to 0 ear Degree of ncdence Incdence order Copyrght 0 IJAIR, All rght reserved 9

5 Internatonal Journal of Agrculture Innovatons and Research Volume, Issue, ISSN Onlne 9-7 From Table V, the ncdence order of nfluencng factors of gran demand n Henan Provnce s: Total populaton f Raton consumpton of per capta f Output of alcoholc beverages f Output of nstant noodles f Output of feed f Output of quc-frozen rce and wheat flour foods. Thrd, regardng Z as the behavoral sequence, and Z Z Z Z Z Z as the related factor sequences, then usng and, we can obtan the results of grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors of gran crculaton n the second herarchy of the nfluencng factor set, shown n Table VI. From Table VI., the ncdence order of nfluencng factors of gran crculaton n Henan Provnce s: Prce ndces of means of agrcultural producton Z f Retal prce ndces of food Z f Self-supply rate of gran Z f Consumer prce ndces of gran Z f Engel s coeffcent n rural area Z f Growth rate of output of gran Z. From the obtan results n Table III, Table IV, Table V and Table VI, we can see that: gran supply among three factors n the frst herarchy of the nfluencng factor set of gran securty has the most sgnfcant mpact on gran securty; n the second herarchc analyss, the nputs of agrcultural means of producton among nne factors has the bggest mpact on gran supply; people's ratons among sx factors has a maxmum mpact on gran demand; the prce ndces of agrcultural means of producton among sx factors has the greatest mpact on gran maret crculaton. These results are n accord wth qualtatve analyss, and they are reasonable and acceptable. Table VI: Grey ncdence analyss of nfluencng factors of gran crculaton n Henan Provnce from 000 to 0 ear Z Z Z Z Z Z Degree of ncdence Incdence order V. CONCLUSION The nfluencng factors of gran securty are complex, have herarchc and uncertan propertes. Ths paper establshes the herarchc nfluencng factor set of gran securty based on gran supply, gran demand and gran crculaton, puts forward the comprehensve ndex of quanttatvely expressng gran securty, conducts the herarchc analyss on nfluencng factors of gran securty n Henan Provnce by grey ncdence analyss model. The research results show that: Frst, grey ncdence analyss model can be regarded as an effectve and powerful tool to analyze the nfluencng factors of gran securty. It can solve the problems wth varous sample szes and dstrbutons, and the computaton amount s small. Its applcaton has more advantages than that of many methods n statstcs, such as regresson analyss, varance analyss, and prncpal component analyss and so on. Second, gran supply among three factors has the bggest mpact on gran securty n the frst herarchy of Copyrght 0 IJAIR, All rght reserved 70 nfluencng factor set. That s to say: safe gran supply s mportant and necessary for ensurng gran securty. The nputs of agrcultural means of producton and cultvated area have sgnfcant mpact on gran supply n the second herarchy of nfluencng factor set. So for gran supply securty, the government should approprately ncrease nvestment n agrcultural means of producton and ncreasngly mprove gran producton condton. Meanwhle t s mportant for government to tae effectve measures to strengthen the management of rural land system,mprove comprehensve capacty of gran producton, protect and sharpen standardzed farmland, and eep cultvated area stable. It s essental to strengthen low-yeldng land transformaton as the central wor of hgh standard basc farmland constructon and the combned agrcultural development, develop dry agrculture postvely. Apart from that, guaranteeng gran securty also requres to perfect the gran processng system and mprove the level of comprehensve utlzaton of gran resource.

6 Internatonal Journal of Agrculture Innovatons and Research Volume, Issue, ISSN Onlne 9-7 Thrd, people's raton has a maxmum mpact on gran demand; the prce ndex of agrcultural means of producton has the greatest mpact on gran maret crculaton. Therefore, for effectvely mprovng gran demand and gran maret crculaton, t s mportant and necessary for government to tae effectve measures to strengthen the management of people's raton and agrcultural means of producton. At the same tme, t s essental for government to thn hghly of establshng alert system of gran securty as soon as possble, mang systematc evaluaton ndex system of gran securty, publczng the stuaton of gran securty tmely, and settng up gran emergency plan to solve the dangerous stuaton n tme. REFERENCES [] Song Xaoqng. The nfluencng factors of Chna gran securty from 999 to 007. Journal of Geographcal Scences, 0,7: [] Lu Xng, Zheng Gutng. The nfluencng factors of gran securty and analyss of safeguard measures n Northeast Chna. Journal of Changchun Normal Unversty Humantes and Socal Scences,0,:-. [] Tong an, Pan ujun, Zhu Hayan. Quanttatve analyss on the nfluence factor of food securty n unnan Provnce. Terrtory and Natural Resource Study,0:-. [] He Manx. The nfluencng factor of gran producton based on grey correlaton analyss. Agrcultural Economy., 0:-. [] Zhang Shouzhong, L uyng. The change of gran producton n Helongjang snce 990.Shanx Journal of Agrcultural scences, 009,:-. [] Fu eqng, B upng. The grey correlaton analyss between the development of bo-ethanol and Chna gran securty.inqury nto Economc Issues, 0:-9. [7] Wang Guomn, Lu Tngtng, Zhou Qngyuan.A comprehensve evaluaton of food securty of Chna from 978 to 00.The Journal of Shangha Admnstraton Insttute,0:-7. [8] Deng Julong. The tutoral of grey system theory. Wuhan: Huazhong Unversty of Scence and Technology Press, 990. [9] Xao Xnpng, Song Zhongmn, Lfeng. The bass and supply of grey technology. Bejng: Scence Press.00. [0] Lu Sfeng, Dang aoguo, Fang Zhgeng.The theory and supply of grey system.bejng: Scence Press.00. [] Xe Namng,Lu Sfeng.Research on evaluatons of several grey relatonal models adapt to grey relatonal axoms. Journal of Systems Engneerng and Electroncs, 009,0:0-09. [] Gu Hu,Song Bfeng. Study on effectveness evaluaton of weapon system s based on grey relatonal analyss and TOPSIS. Journal of Systems Engneerng and Electroncs,009,0: 0-. [] Wang Qngyn. The grey relaton analyss of B-model. Journal of Huazhong Unversty of Scence and Technology, 989,7:77-8. [] Tang Wuxang. The concept and the computaton method of T s correlaton Degree. Journal of Appled Statstcs and Management, 99,:-7. [] Cu Je, Dang aoguo, Lu Sfeng. Novel propertes of some grey relatonal analyss models. Systems Engneerng, 009,7: -70. [] Xe Namng, Lu Snfeng. The parallel and unform propertes of several relatonal models. Systems Engneerng, 007, 8: [7] Henan Statstcal Bureau. Statstcal earboo of Henan 0. Bejng: Chna Statstcs Press.0. AUTHORS PROFILE Fan-ln Meng was born n Jyuan, Chna on February, 99. She s a postgraduate student n College of Informaton and Management Scence, Henan Agrcultural Unversty. Her major s agrcultural nformaton management and decson support system. And her research fled s grey system theory. She has publshed four artcles on the topcs related to agrcultural system engneerng and grey system theory. Emal: fanln_meng@.com Prof. Dr. Bng-jun L was born n Byang, Chna on December, 98. He s a Professor n College of Informaton and Management Scence, Henan Agrcultural Unversty. He got the PhD degree from Chna Agrcultural Unversty n 998, and engaged n the postdoctoral research wor n Nanjng Unversty of Aeronautcs and Astronautcs n 00. He was hred as PhD supervsor n Henan Agrcultural Unversty n 00, and vstng Professor n Osaa Unversty n 007. He has publshed about forty artcles on the topcs related to agrcultural system engneerng and grey system theory. He has also served as revewer for numerous nternatonal journals. Emal: zzlbjun@.com Na Wang was born n Shangqu, Chna on February, 988. Her research fled s grey system theory, and she has publshed several artcles n the fled of grey system theory. She got the Master degree n management scence and engneerng n 0 from Henan Agrcultural Unversty. Emal: squwangna@.com Copyrght 0 IJAIR, All rght reserved 7