Cost-of-Research Index,

Transcription

1 Cst-f-Researh Index,

2 * 1, CMBAT ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT TECHNICAL PAPER RAC-TP-209 DISTRIBUTIN STATEMENT Pblished Marh 1966 Distribtin f thi» dment 1» nlimited. Cst-f-Researh Index, by Helen S. Miltn RESEARCH ANALYSIS CRPRATIN MCLEAN, VIRGINIA

3 ft FREWRD The st-f-researh index was intrded in 1960 by Ellis A. Jhnsn and Helen S. Miltn in R-SP-142, "A Prpsed Cst-f- Researh Index." At the speial reqest f the ffie f the Chief f Researh and Develpment, Department f the Army, the rrent pdating f that stdy was ndertaken. In additin t the previsly reprted data fr the perid , this paper presents minr revisins in the annal index nmbers fr the years 1951 thrgh 1958 and rrent data fr the years 1958 thrgh The data verage n whih this paper is based is virtally the same as in the earlier stdy. The variatins reslt primarily frm revisins in strtre f individal perating rganizatins and shifts in emphasis within R&D prgrams. These aspets may be nsidered representative f develpments in the R&D field. As in the previs stdy, the data are presented with minimm interpretatin. The intent is t prvide nly that neessary fr the nderstanding f the data. Philip H. Lwry Head, Cmbat Analysis Department ' i : in "\

4 ACKNWLEDGMENTS The athr is deeply indebted t the rganizatins that prvided the data n whih this paper is based. With their permissin, I nte the partiipatin f the fllwing: Arthr D. Little, In. Battelle Memrial Institte Eell Telephne Labratries Carnegie Instittin f Washingtn Center fr Naval Analyses f the Franklin Institte Crnell Aernatial Labratry, In. f Crnell University Gelgial Srvey, U.S. Department f Interir Illinis Institte f Tehnlgy Researh Institte (frmerly Armr Researh Fndatin f Illinis Institte f Tehnlgy) Massahsetts Institte f Tehnlgy Linln Labratry Natinal Brea f Standards, U.S. Department f Cmmere Raythen Cmpany Researh Analysis Crpratin (sessr t The Jhns Hpkins University peratins Researh ffie) Stanfrd Researh Institte Tehnial peratins Inrprated The RAND Crpratin iv jm*mj-*...mbz* '" ' " " 'V

5 »- I CNTENTS Frewrd 111 Aknwledgments IV Abstrat Cst-f-Researh Index, Partiipatin t rganizatins Individl and Grp Indexes Cst-f-Researh Index R&D Dllars and Effrt Prfessinal R&D Persnnel by Setrs "Theretial" and "Develpment" R&D Csta Eqipment Csts Prfessinal Sientifi Salaries- Index Trends, Smmary 15 Referene', 19 Figres Indexes f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year fr 17 rganizatins, Grp Indexes f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year, Index f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year, US R&D Expenditres and Tehnial Effrt, Index f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year and Cnsmer Prie Index, Indexes f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year fr Thery- riented and Develpment-riented rganizatins, R&D Salary Indexes arding t Years frm Gradatin fr Prfessinal Nnspervisry Persnnel, , by Grp Index f Cst per Tehnial Man-Year, Cst per Tehnial Man-Year-. Relative Inreases Based n Annal Perentage Inreases Cst per Tehnial Man-Year: Relative Inreases Based n 3-Year Averages f Perentage Inreases fr *3!, "^»~^W itjghb8^j j ^gi<bag ^^ ' ;^feg>«vv^ sa»

6 Tabl es 1. Index f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year Based n Data frm 17 R&D rganizatins, R&D Sientifi and Tehnial Persnnel, by Grp Average Annal Inreases in Salaries f Nnspervisry R&D Sientifi and Prfessinal Persnnel Classified by Years sine Gradatin 13 VI

7 I:li Cstf-Researh Index, ? jp 7 "' ' ^ '?!.. '» I i^(jwb«!w" f " r ''"'"" rtl '"~'f! g5» v f jfiixst

8 s t-'.-^-z-^j ABSTRACT The st-f-researh index prvides a measre f the st f tehnial man-years spprted by researh and develpment (R&D) fnds expended yearly in the US relative t effrt in ntrast t dllars that has been pt frth in US R&D, Althgh the annal US R&D dllar ttals have inreased frm less than $3 billin in 1950 t abt $22 billin in 1965, the atal man-years f tehnial effrt indiated by the appliatin f the st-f-researh index t the annal dllar ttals inreased at apprximately ne-half the rate f inrease f fnds expended. Dring the past 5 years there has been an appreiable deline frm the mid-1950's in the rate f inrease in the tehnial-man-year sts. An almst mparable pattern is nted in fr salaries f R&D sientifi and prfessinal persnnel. Researh and develpment is amplished by the expenditre f manpwer and dllars, and all apprahes t planning and bdgeting fr R&D mst be based n nsideratin f bth. The st-f-researh index designed t determine the rates f hange in sts per tehnial man-year shld be pdated and applied in sh planning and bdgeting n a rerring annal basis. -\

9 CST-F-RESEARCH INDEX, The imprtane t the Amerian enmy f researh and develpment (R&D) sts, alng with their grwth trends ver the past 4 1 /2 deades, is learly indiated by the 1965 investment in R&D almst $2 billin a mnth. The annal ttal was sme eight r nine times that f 1950 and 25 t 30 times that f ~ 6 The fnding level has dbled abt every 6 years, bt the qestin is: hw fast has the atal R&D effrt inreased? The initial bjetive f the st-f-researh index was t prvide a measre f the st f the tehnial man-years spprted by the R&D fnds expended yearly in the US relative t effrt in ntrast t dllars that has been pt frth in US R&D. The "tehnial man" is the prfessinal sientist r engineer with his spprting tehnial, administrative, and hsekeeping staffs and his mahines and eqipment, i.e., the man pls the verhead sts. Tw qestins are f ntining interest: first, hw mh the st per tehnial man has inreased wing t all ases dring the last 45 years, and send, nw this has affeted the atal R&D effrt. The revltin in tehnlgy sparked by the military reqirements f WWII has markedly inreased the eqipment demands f the natins' labratries and prvided a means fr an atal and frther ptential inrease in tpt per tehnial man-year. In nlear siene, yltrns and bevatrns have fllwed in the wake f years f sientifi researh. In mathematis, still the lwest-st area in sientifi researh, millin-dllar mpters have replaed many 5-ent penils. The sts in R&D vary with the reqirements f the sientifi disipline being prsed. Fr example, in the US Air Fre's ntining analyses f its basi researh prjets, sts per tehnial paper pblished in the natin's sientifi literatre vary frm ver $100,000 per paper prded in the field f aermehanis researh t apprximately $10,000 per paper in the field f mathematis, in whih riginal wrk an still be dne with a minimm f eqipment. 7-9 An index based n the brad spetrm f R&D annt delineate sh variatins in fine detail. Hwever, a balaned mix f R&D speifying an average st per tehnial man-year des identify relative levels f the tehnial effrt spprted in R&D. The tehnial-man-year st sed in this paper is derived by dividing the ttal annal st f eah partilar R&D rganizatin partiipating in this stdy by the nmber f sientifi and tehnial persnnel wrking in the rganizatin. Annal sts generally are based n eqipment and perating expenses inlding rent; they exlde apital investments exept fr annal depreiatin harges. T bviate the pitfalls f the impreise anting methds in R&D, the stper-tehnial-man-year data are translated int individal rganizatin indexes that are nsistent within the limits f eah rganizatin's reprting system. When the st-f-researh index is based n these individal series f relative vales, the index itself has a high level f nsisteny.

10 CD a N a en i a >- i ID t a. U Q «3 Qi < X 0) -a l -l IT) r n CN CN r (001-0S61) X3aNI ^eimaassaff- -v T

11 Partiipatin f rganizatins The index is based n 17 individal researh rganizatins, ranging frm the mst sphistiated indstry and fndatin R&D enterprises t relatively small private and gvernment labratries and R&D divisins. Eah was seleted bease its primary missin was in a representative field f researh r R&D. The ttal is divided abt eqally amng indstrial, private nnprfit,* niversity-ntrat, and Federal rganizatins. The data verage fr individal rganizatins varies in time fr first reprting frm 1920 t Sbseqent reprting ntined thrgh 1965, with the 1965 ttals representing allated annal figres based n 8 r 9 mnths f experiene. The nentratin f initial reprting in 1950 reflets in part the initiatin f R&D agenies fllwing WWII. It als reflets tehniqes f bkkeeping. ld rerds were fnd t be qite nsistently ninfrmative n persnnel lassifiatins. ne f the rganizatins, renwned fr years in the R&D field, simply ld nt derive the nmbers f prfessinal and tehnial persnnel frm its existing rerds fr years prir t 1950, Frtnately several large R&D establishments anvassed detailed anient rerds and did btain data warranting the identifiatin f the index trend bak t The WWII era was ne that led t extreme variatins in R&D anting systems, partly bease f the abnrmal aspets f wartime researh. Gvernment ntrats, shifts in wrk and persnnel assignments, and general speedp ased interesting reperssins in the persnnel-st relatin. Nte in Fig. 1 the almst-nterbalaning pswing and dwnswing f tw f the ld-line R&D rganizatins in the WWII perid. Individal and Grp Indexes Figre 1 presents the indexes f individal sts per tehnial man-year fr the rganizatins perating in this stdy. The pattern represents a rss setin f the R&D field in terms f type f spnsrship and size f rganizatin. This inldes indstrial. Federal gvernment, niversity-ntrat, and private-nnprfit grps. In atal sts per tehnial man-year by grp the perentage inrease frm 1950 t 1965 ranges frm 123 t 176. With the exeptin f the niversity-ntrat rganizatins, this range f inrease ver the 15-year perid is less than the variatins within the individal grps. The nsisteny in st inrease is indiated in Fig. 2, whih identifies the st-per-tehnial-man-year index fr eah f the grps, with the average sperimpsed. Cst-f-Researh Index The lng-term trend in natinal R&D sts per tehnial man-year is shwn in Fig. 3. This is based n data fr the partiipating rganizatins fr the perid , with extraplatins spplementing the data fr the perid (see Fig. 1). The index vales are presented in Table 1 fr mre nvenient se. *This lassifialin fr "indstrial" and "private nnprfit" is that f the Natinal Researh Cnil. 10

12 n 0 0 \\A \ iv- \ m N \ M»\ \! \\ v \\ \\\ 4 \ >A. \ V it' 1 w - E 0 a. 0 0) > 0 >s 0 J 0 t/j I) "5 a 0 0 > > i- 0) > a. 3. < n v 0 "" CN in v ' 0! r L ^~ k. ^ 0 QJ >^ r 3= L "5 J: H ^ (U r^ Q. 10 «_ 0 10 i U 0 Q L «3 a: ^^_ 0 I n i 0) X 1 t -a Tf l a. 0 D 6 r 1 U~) l 0 CN '~ CN "I ' -- _ > *" D> iz C CN CN 10 L (001 = 0S61) xaani -v»fl^v-»^ - "fj»k*

13 Annal averages trend S nn 06C^ Fig. 3 Index f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year, J_ TABLE 1 Index f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year Based n Data frm 17 R&D rganizatins, (1950= 100) Year Index Year Index Year Index Year Index Year Index i '-.. w _ }J Smr* m *' '" TflMmMaiSkg. --mi-^'t

14 k R&D expenditres tf / in rrent dila,-s 4 / 16 Q: < a 14 in Z _l _l ehnial effrt represented by deflatin f R&D dllars by st-f-researh index J L Fig. 4 US R&D Expenditres and Tehni! Effrt, Natinal Siene Fndatin Estimated Indstrial Researh Battelle Memrial Institte ^ ggsprwadsts

15 R&D Dllars and Effrt In Fig. 4 the index f st per tehnial man-year is applied t the estimated dllars expended in US R&D dring the years In 1965 the natinal enmy invested eight r nine times as many dllars in R&D as in The inrease in tehnial-man-year effrt, as derived by the appliatin f the index, is nly three r fr times the 1950 figre an indiated inrease in effrt f slightly less than half the mparable dllar inrease. The nmeasrable aspet, it mst be nted, is the gain in effetiveness f tehnial-man-year effrt reslting frm ever-inreasing nmbers and types f sientifi and tehnial aids, sh as mpters, intrded in R&D peratins / / _ Index f R&D st per / tehnial i,-an-year / " - x Ul Q / / / ' 75 A ^,'/"' Cnsmer prie index \ % \,'"*' IT - _ Fig. 5 Index f R&D Cst per Tehnial Man-Year and Cnsmer Prie Index, Perhaps the high rate f inrease in R&D tehnial-effrt sts in the past 15 years an be mst sharply appreiated when it is mpared with the st-fliving index. 11 Fr mparisn f the vale f the R&D dllar and the take-hme dllar the tw indexes are shwn in Fig. 5. Althgh the nsmer's dllar in 1965 (based n Janary-Nvember 1965) wld prhase 76 perent f the amnt it wld in 1950, the R&D dllar wld prhase nly 41 perent f the tehnial effrt..-^.-^ r-r TW«

16 C ) 0 C 0) ü Z) VI 0 a N? 6? 0 M E 3 Z C 0) t- ffl n) 0) a» m a: Q» 4-1 f] I*-. tfl. 0) a CJ a. " 2^5 LÜ < Q. 3 im 0) V) 0) Q. "5 E _ 0) ö " t 3 0 > a E w 0 at 'S tv N a d" 1/) 3 L. -Q E 3 Z 6? M E 3 Z 6? 0 E 3 Z 6? a> ja E 3 Z 6? ^} E 3 Z Q _ 6 C ' IN (N ^ i I C f- r-h r-h t^ * C t- r-h in ".2 S "> '5 t in IZ -. a. is 0) n -n -3 aj J in «-J in 1) a JS w m n i- 0) U. ti ^ a ü.5 03 rr a, a. " jq C B t -C V ja 1, 2^ a. EF5 in 3 JS E ^ -a S (U >* in C II f) 0 "" in in M C -a 10 Q, 5 a >. E 0) ID bee 0 " ^ a 0 Ö "«i -^ -r Ö S ^ ID a -S Ci- - > IN U H Z H S aj -a ^ Q.U 10. : SCK-,....-wr-^i ^f" T"

17 Prfessinal R&D Persnnel by Setrs The mst signifiant lassifiatin f rganizatins in terms f sts per tehnial man-year is related t hw mh researh is being arried n and by whm it is being dne. The annal vlme f R&D is indiated in Fig. 4, in terms f bth dllars and effrt. Table 2 12 prvides a general pattern f emplyment f sientists and tehnial persnnel in R&D bth fr the US and fr the rganizatins partiipating in this stdy. The disparity in timing fr the reent data, as reprted here, is bvis: 1961 is the mst reent date fr whih the Natinal Siene Fndatin (NSF) has data enmpassing all fr setrs f R&D emplyment indstrial, Federal gvernment, niversity ntrat, and private nnprfit. In verage the US data are limited t fll-time eqivalent sientists and engineers and exlde sial sientists and psyhlgists. The 17 perating rganizatins were reqested t reprt their "sientifi and tehnial persnnel" and, by definitin, did inlde sial sientists and pyhlgists. n the basis f the figres in Table 2, the sample grp represented apprximately 9 perent f the ttal sientifi persnnel in the US R&D in bth 1954 and Based n 30,000 sientifi and tehnial persnnel as a 9 perent sample in 1965, ttal US R&D persnnel wld ttal 333,000. Bt. the reprted NSF ttal fr 1961 is 411,000. This by itself wld imply that the persnnel f the rganizatins perating in this stdy is inreasing at a less rapid rate than the ttal US R&D sientifi and tehnial pplatin. The pattern f distribtin amng the fr setrs in the US ttal and the sample grp is relatively nsistent fr the indstry. Federal gvernment, and llege and niversity setrs. An index f st per tehnial man-year f R&D atally arried n in the US was btained by applying the NSF grp perentages f perfrmers in R&D t the data fr mparable grps within the 17 rganizatins nder stdy. This indiatr f natinal R&D st per tehnial man-year fllws s lsely the average f the grp index shwn in Fig. 2 that there is n need t present it separately. "Theretial" and "Develpment" R&D Csts The R&D rganizatins that emphasize theretial researh tend t be amng the smaller rganizatins and in the lwer-st area. Thse that enmpass large-sale develpment peratins tend t fall in the larger-sized grps and higher-st brakets. Classifying the rganizatins int the nebls ategries f "theretial" and "develpment," the nmber r rganizatins in the tw grps are apprximately eqal. The inrease in st per tehnial man-year frm 1950 t 1965 fr the researh-riented grp is 134 perent and fr the develpment-riented gr Is 151 perent. The index f st per tehnial man-year fr eah f the tw grps is shwn in Fig. 6. Eqipment Csts It is ertain that the st relatin hinges in part n eqipment reqirements and sts. Admittedly it is diffilt t estimate the inreased reqirements fr the varis types f labratry eqipment, whih is a signifiant fatr partilarly in develpment-riented sts. It is even mre diffilt t estimate the inreasing vlme and the R&D sts in the speialized area f at- 11 %$: VfT'^'"'' "^"". ^gffl»-*"*'-' i..iwi»»ii»t..' I,. ^i. iii t BKfglBHfQVji}mv, "'"i. i.iii<ny M. :< I,I_.

18 -a 0) ~ CD D >- D *- f.ü? - 0) - I- Ä i. a. - *9 Q i < X < U. ( ) xaani 12

19 mati data pressing (ADP), fr whih eqipment was first available mmerially in the early IQfiC's and whih nw is an integral part f any stdy dependent n large vlmes f data. An estimate f mpter appliatins in the majr US enmi setrs in identified the extensive and varied ses f ADP, inlding R&D data pressing, in the Federal gvernment. In the manfatring segment f the enmy mre than 35 perent f US firms tilized ADP in their R&D prgrams. Beween 10 and 35 perent f the servie indstries were identified as sers f ADP in R&D data pressing, and a ptential fr nsiderably greater se was nted. Prfessinal Sientifi Salaries A majr ntribting element in the natinal pswing in R&D sts thrght the past 15 years has been the inrease in salaries f sientifi and prfessinal persnnel. The annal natinal srveys f the Ls Alams Sientifi Labratry 14 have nt nly identified the general pward trend bt als have indiated patterns f emphasis. These srveys inlde the salary distribtin fr prfessinal sientifi persnnel by nmber f years sine gradatin. The salary indexes fr nnspervisry persnnel lassified by "age" grps (0-4 years, 5-9 years, years, and years frm gradatin), tgether with the weighted index based n nmbers within the grps, are shwn in Fig. 7. Salaries fr all nnspervisry R&D persnnel have inreased ver the perid at an average annal rate f 5 perent. Cmpared with the 6 perent average inrease dring the 1950's, hwever, the average sine 1960 has been 4 perent. The average inreases fr the fr ategries f nnspervisry prfessinal R&D persnnel are presented by time perids in Table 3. TABLE 3 Average Annal Inreases in Salaries f Nnspervisry R&D Sientifi and Prfessinal Persnnel, by Years sine Gradatin (In perent ) Time perid Years sine gradatin Ttal i Whereas Fig. 7 identifies the levels f the salary indexes by age grps ver the perid , the grp perentages fr three 5-year perids presented in Table 3 pint p the relative-hanges fr the individal grps. These data indiate that the s-alled "ynger" sientists benefited frm the highest prprtinal salary inreases dring the 1950's. Dring the first half 13 - >*..^-*- -JC'^'- ilimii WM"»^

20 ") -q Q) ; C V) n (1) ^ a. t CN M3 > ; Q. r: C) 0 ~ ~ *- D D -a -1 n -13 en a 0) > B E E E -a 0) i/> -t -i ai 1/1 (/> 0) 0 >> > ' L a. ^ ^ C Z "5 ; I/) 1/) - 1. l 0, - ^4- Q. D C "-) k. T3 J3 -) 6 v E CN s»^»-f- 1 ifl a ^ >- "" l -D ^r (J t a in n X in < -a "-) CN I/ r «3 IT) r i 1 l Ul L -) L CN 1 t^ U-) CN r^ CN CN CN (001-0S61) XHNI s D) 14 "N

21 f the 1960's the "lder" sientists the grp 15 t 42 years frm gradatinhad the highest annal perentage inrease in salary. Data fr spervisry persnnel in the mparable sientifi age grps are available nly fr the years The average inrease fr this segment f R&D persnnel varies nly slightly frm that fr the nnspervisry persnnel dring the same 6-year perid. The indiatin is that a 15- year index fr ttal sientifi and prfessinal persnnel wld be apprximately the same as the ne shwn fr nnspervisry persnnel in Fig. 7. Amng spervisry persnnel, as wld be expeted in view f experiene reqirements, the greater salary inreases are amng the lder age grps. There is, fr example, n ategry f 0-4 years sine gradatin fr spervisry persnnel. Amng the fr grps reprted n (5-9 years, years, years, and 20+ years) the highest single annal salary inrease was 8 perent fr the 5-9-year grp between 1959 and 1960 mpared with 5 perent fr eah f the ther three grps in thse 2 years. Frm 1961 thrgh 1965 the ategry 20+ years frm gradatin has maintained the lead amng spervisry persnnel in annal perentage inreases in salary with an average gain f 5 perent. The average annal inrease fr the year grp dring the same perid was 4 perent and fr the grps years and 5-9 years, 3 perent. Index Trends, The trend in the index f st per tehnial man-year, as indiated in Fig. 8, has ntined pward thrght the past 15 years. At present the R&D tehnialman-year sts are inreasing at the same general rate as R&D salaries and, as in the ase f salaries, the rrent annal inreases are lwer than in the 1950's. The annal inreases m tehnial-man-year sts frm 1950 thrgh 1965 average 6 perent. By 5-year perids the average inreases are 7 perent fr , 8 perent fr , and 4 perent fr The annal perentage inreases frm whih the 5-year averages are derived are identified in Fig. 9. The general trend, hwever, is mre readily bservable in Fig. 10, in whih the pattern is based n verlapping 3-year averages. Here the peak perids f high annal inreases in tehnial manyear sts stand t and The platea frm 1960 t 1965 reflets the average annal inrease f 4 perent fr the 5-year perid SUMMARY The prpse f this paper was t prvide a measre f the st f tehnial man-years spprted by R&D fnds expended yearly in the US relativ ; t the effrt in ntrast t dllars that has been pt frth in US R&D. The st-f-researh index represents sh a tl. It an identify the relative effrt invested by years in terms f hrs f wrk. It annt differentiate between the levels f effetiveness f that effrt. The agmentatin by mahines, fr example, has inreased the prdtivity f the average tehnial man-year t an nmeasred degree. The wrk-effetiveness aspet mst be nsidered separately. 15 &tem- )f.r'~'' "~'-\ ^m***"'

22 (001-0S61) X3aNI 16 -v

23 - '~ n 1 VI < 10 " < fn l a HI k- 01 D. ' 3 C C - < -a (U l t/) C 10 C (U in D 0) i- _ rv m > _ 0) ^ a: - L 0) IT) >- in -J ^ 0) a. in U I l il 1 "1 n - 1 ^r CN - - ^ " a 1 Cl >; < C N -a 1 <N 0) - 10 <3 - C 10 m 10 Q IT) (U m 1 0) 10 _ 0) 1 01 IT) > 1 ^ l ai l 1 Ck: a K - '"" L (1) 01 1 >- Q..1 1 f^ ly-. -A IA - IS 1 ^ ( IT) - I C - l IT) N ' a ^ : in " ai D <: 4) 0) in U l in33y3d 17,<^ ^ jfm*

24 This stdy leads t the fllwing nlsins: 1. The average annal inreases in tehnial-man-year sts were 7 perent fr , 8 perent fr bü, and 4 perent fr The average ver the 15-year perid is 6 perent. The appreiable deline in the rate f inrease dring the perid is readily apparent. 2. Frm 1950 t 1965 the annal R&D dllar ttals inreased frm less than $3 billin t abt $22 billin. Dring that perid the atal man-years f tehnial effrt, indiated by the appliatin f the st-f-researh index t the annal dllar ttals, inreased at apprximately half the rate f inrease in fnds expended.* 3. The index level f the Federal gvernment war; higher in 1964 and 1965 than that f indstry, niversity ntrat, and private nnprfit rganizatins. It was the lwest f the fr frm 1954 thrgh This reversal reflets effets f Federal salary and spprt prgrams designed t attain and maintain a flly mpetitive psitin in R&D. 4. The tehnial-man-year sts fr develpment-riented rganizatins ntine higher than fr thery-riented rganizatins. The margin f differene is abt the same in 1965 as in With the pswing in R&D expenditres fllwing WWII, the trend in salary inreases in the 1950's favred the "yng" prfessinals the age braket belw 10 years frm llege gradatin. In the 1960's the average annal perentage inrease was highest fr persnnel 15 r mre years frm gradatin. This may indiate an inrease in emphasis n the experiene and expertise f the lder prfessinals. Researh and develpment is amplished by the expenditre f manpwer and dllars. All the apprahes t planning and bdgeting fr R&D mst be based n bth tehnial manpwer and dllars. There has been a trend tward stabilizatin in the pattern f tehnialman-year sts in the perid In view f the general trend pward, a tl sh as the st-f-researh index shld be sed in ftre planning and bdgeting fr R&D with the preise intent t determine whether the trend f has ntined r whether the rate f hange in the st, per tehnial man-year has varied markedly. The st-f-researh index sed t develp the rates shld be pdated and applied n a rerring annal basis. *By this measre, there were ritial areas in military tehnlgy in whih the abslte dllar spprt inreased dring the 1950's, bt less atal effrt was expended than in

25 REFERENCES 1. Dept f Defense, "The Grwth f Sientifi Researh and Develpment," RD 114/34, 27 Jl Natinal Siene Fndatin, "Reviews f Data n Siene Resres," NSF 65-11, Vl I, N. 4, Indstrial Researh. Jan 65, p Dr. Vitr J. Danilv, Exetive Editr, Indstrial Researh, private mmniatin, De Battelle Memrial Institte, news release, De Lester L. Hinshaw, Battelle Memrial Institte, private mmniatin, De Brig Gen B. G. Hlzman, private mmniatin, Sep Dr. Harld Wster, private mmniatin, De E. D. Brnner, "The Cst f Basi Researh Effrt: Air Fre Experiene, ," Mem RM-4250-PR, RAND Crpratin, Feb Natinal Researh Cnil, Natinal Aademy f Sienes, Indstrial Researh Labratries f the United States, Washingtn, D. C, 1956, 10th ed. 11. "Cnsmer Prie Index" (base year nverted t 1950), The Handbk f Basi Enmi Statistis, Enmi Statistis Brea f Washingtn, D. C, Vl XX, N. 1, 15 Jan 66, pp 101, Nat'inal Siene Fndatin, "Sientifi and Tehnial Manpwer Resres," NSF 64-28, 1964, Table , p Dnald F. Blmberg, "New Diretins fr Cmpter Tehnlgy and Appliatins A Lng Range Preditin," Cmpters and Atmatin, Jan Ls Alams Sientifi Labratry f the University f Califrnia, Natinal Srvey f Prfessinal Sientifi Salaries, Ls Alams, N. Mex., annal, 1950-lf;^. 19 A'-- Jk"' "". ^** m *' >'*..,. ' I ' * -' '! v.