Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, UC Berkeley
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1 Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, UC Berkeley
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![Non-specimen archival record (fieldnotes and photographs)... our efforts are not... to accumulate as great a mass of animal remains as possible [rather].](/docs-images/85/92086418/images/3-0.jpg ".. our field-records will be perhaps the most valuable of all our results... You can't tell in advance which observations will prove valuable. Do record them all!")
3 Non-specimen archival record (fieldnotes and photographs)... our efforts are not... to accumulate as great a mass of animal remains as possible [rather]... our field-records will be perhaps the most valuable of all our results... You can't tell in advance which observations will prove valuable. Do record them all! Grinnell, 1908
4 Photograph archive 1911 Black oak woodland, Stoneman Meadow (east end of Yosemite Valley)
5 The Grinnell Project Small Mammal Responses to Climate in California What is it? Where did it come from? Mammal distributional changes Possible causes Reality check What can we do now?
6 Grinnell Resurvey Project Craig Moritz - Project leader (MVZ director) Jim Patton, Chris Conroy, John Perrine - field team leaders Robert Hijmans, Michelle Koo - geospatial models, database Bill Monahan, Juan Para - climate models, historical database Steve Beisinger - detectability and occupancy models Emily Rubidge - genetic diversity Grinnell period -100 years Present Future years Models Build Predict Test Predicted responses to future change Multi-scale Observations Genetic: Multi-locus, neutral and adaptive molecular diversity Species: presence or absence; relative abundance Community: richness, evenness, dissimilarity Scenarios for climate & land-use change
7 Yosemite transect National Park Service, US Geological Service Steve Thompson, NPS Les Chow, USGS Sierra Nevada Network Inventory and Monitoring Program The Yosemite Fund Craig Moritz, Director, MVZ, project leader Adam Leache, MVZ, reptiles / amphibians Andrew Rush, MVZ, birds Chris Conroy, MVZ, mammals Jim Patton, MVZ, mammals
8 Yosemite transect 41 sites, elevational range ,000 ft Joseph Grinnell, Tracy I. Storer, Walter P. Taylor, Joseph Dixon, Charles L. Camp fieldwork began on 19 Nov and ended on 11 Aug man-days in the field ~3,000 pages of field notes 4354 specimens obtained ~700 photographs
9 Mammal effort - Yosemite Transect 39 separate localities 250 separate trap lines (each run for a minimum of 4 consecutive days/nights) ~30,000 trap nights (combinations of Sherman live traps, Tomahawk live traps, pitfall cups, other traps) Methodological issues: Statistical issues: trap type trapping intensity (number and temporal length) precision in duplicating trap sites single point-in-time surveys two points-in-time comparisons detectability (false absences)
10 indirect observation direct observation raccoon hind foot print -- Upper Lyell Canyon, 10,500 ft Spermophilus beecheyi Crane Flat, 6300 ft collapsed mole runway - Bohler Creek, Mono Co., 7265 ft
11 High elevation species: upward range retraction Golden-mantled ground squirrel (Spermophilus lateralis) 500 ft Pika (Ochotona princeps) 700 ft
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13 Low elevation species: upward expansion into higher elevation (west and east slopes) and habitat (on east side) Piñon mouse (Peromyscus truei) pi ñonjuniper oak woodland - chaparral Mono Basin: piñon - juniper woodland, 7300 ft upper Lyell Canyon: whitebark pine, 10,200 ft
14 downward elevational expansion Montane shrew (Sorex monticolus)
15 Summary: mammal distribution patterns High elevation: retracted upwards Golden-mantled ground squirrel Belding ground squirrel Alpine chipmunk Pika Low elevation: expanded upwards Beechey ground squirrel Long-eared chipmunk California pocket mouse Piñon mouse California vole High elevation: expanded downwards Montane shrew Medium-High elevation: disappearing? Shadow chipmunk Bushy-tailed woodrat Temporally stable: Trowbridge s shrew Western gray squirrel Lodgepole pine chipmunk Merriam s chipmunk Yellow pine chipmunk Chickaree Heermann s kangaroo rat Panamint kangaroo rat Botta s pocket gopher Montane pocket gopher Montane vole Long-tailed vole Brush mouse Deer mouse Western harvest mouse Big-eared woodrat WHY?
16 Range shifts and ecological factors Fire history Yosemite National Park Upward elevational expansion of west slope species may be associated with changes in forest structure due to fire history
17 California pocket mouse (Chaetodipus californicus) elevational increase of a low elevation species
18 Signatures of climate change: local pika extirpation
19 Signatures of climate change: temperature increase, glacial melt summer winter Yosemite Valley Lyell Glacier, Yosemite National Park, in 1903 (top) and 2003 (bottom)
20 Signatures of climate change: winter precipitation - shift from snowfall to rainfall
21 Signatures of climate change: change in forest structure and growth 1907 July July 2004 east end Tenaya Lake - 8,200 ft north end Vogelsang Lake north - 10,400 end - 10,400 ft ft forest densification increased tree density invasion of subalpine meadows change in form & growth harsh conditions favor krummholz life form milder conditions favor persistence of flags and growth of upright stems
22 Mts Gibbs and Dana - from upper meadow at Farringtons, near William's Butte, Mono Co. June 1916 No obvious change in the meadows, but substantial increase of tree cover/sizes on the slopes August 2003
23 Question: Are these elevational shifts real? measures of change in species distributions are inherently biased unless the probability that a species is present at a site is adjusted by the probability that it has, indeed, been detected if present (i. e., what is the probability of false absences?)
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26 USING SURVEY DATA TO MODEL CHANGES ACROSS CALIFORNIA GRINNELL S DATA MODERN DATA PAST DISTRIBUTION MODELS TESTING & REFINING MODELS CLIMATE (ENVIRON.) DATA FUTURE PROJECTIONS
27 Change in total precipitation of the driest quarter (current historic). Blue represents areas where precipitation has decreased relative to the historic time period. Note:Prec in mm *10 Juan Parra & William Monahan
28 Basic Methods Species Distribution Modelling Species Data MaxEnt & BIOCLIM Historic Climate Data 1. Select small mammal species based on sample size and geographic range criteria. Data are MVZ specimen / observation records. 2. Use historic species occurrences ( ) in conjunction with historic climate surfaces to create niche models with Maxent and Bioclim. Assessment with Current Climate & Current Sampling 3. Project historical models onto present-day climate surfaces and assess statewide model performance using modern point locality data ( ).
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30 Future approaches chipmunks: temporal changes in genetic diversity Modeling physiological / physical responses
31 Grinnell Resurvey Project: Realizing Grinnell s vision of using museum archival data to document and understand patterns and change in the natural world. Ongoing research Collaborators welcome! www://mvz.berkeley.edu
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