Climate Change Impacts on Glaciers and Runoff in Alpine catchments
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1 Climate Change Impacts on Glaciers and Runoff in Alpine catchments Saeid A. Vaghefi Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Science
2 Outline 1. SWATCH21 project 2. Importance of glacier retreat modeling in determination of runoff at basin scale (Why?) 3. How to quantify the glacier melt (How?) 4. The Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) + SWAT 5. Aletsch Glacier in Rhone river basin, Switzerland 6. Calibration protocol for discharge in mountainous catchments 7. Climate change impact on Aletsch Glacier
3 SWATCH21 Project , Founded by SNF SWATCH21 Deliverables and Objectives Data collection for SWAT to model spatial distribution of water resources in Switzerland Build, calibrate and validate a hydrologic model of Switzerland with uncertainty analysis Quantify the impact of land use and climate change on water quantity, water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem services Modeling the glaciers retreat and evolution in Swiss Alps
4 SWATCH21 team Prof. Dr. Anthony Lehmann University of Geneva Prof. Dr. karim Abbaspour Eawag Prof. Dr. Daniel Farinotti ETHZ PD. Dr. Christian Huggel University of Zurich Marc Fasel University of Geneva Pablo Timoner University of Geneva Dr. Saeid Vaghefi University of Geneva Eawag Martin Lacayo University of Geneva
5 Why to quantify glacier melt? Global water cycle Ice caps and mountainous glaciers: contain less than 1% of all global ice (Meier et al. 2007) cover 734,400 km 2 of the Earth (Gardner et al. 2013) correspond to one-third to on-half of global sea-level rise in last decades(global) in the European Alps (ca km 2 on 3800 glaciers) produce an annual average runoff volume of 5.28 ± 0.48 km 3 (Farinotti et al. 2009) (regional) Trenberth et al. (2006)
6 Glacier retreat Ice melt contributes to the runoff especially in Summer time when other sources of water are limited. Video by Prof. Dr. Hong Yang (2018), Iceland
7 Why to quantify ice melt contribution? A contributor to the runoff Fluctuations of ice melt water lead to harmful environmental impacts Missing meltwater water shortages, and crop failure (Carey et al., 2017; Huss et al., 2017; Yang et al., 2014). Increasing meltwater lake expansion, changes in seasonal hydropower generation (Gaudard et al., 2018; Schaefli et al., 2019), and overflowing of recreational areas due to the rising water of the rivers
8 How to quantify Ice melt? 1. Physical based model Clarke et al., 2015 Farinotti et al., 2012 Fitzpatrick et al., 2017 Huss et al., 2008 Huss et al., 2014 Model different physical processes 2. Statistical models Koboltschnig and Schoner, 2011 Trachsel and Nesje, 2015 Zekollari and Huybrechts, 2018 Find correlation between glaciers signatures (such as area and volume) and runoff 3. Process-based numerical models Geuzaine and Remacle, 2009 Jouvet et al., 2009 Jouvet et al., 2011 Jouvet and Rappaz, 2014 Michel et al., 2013 Use different numerical methods such as Lagrangian or Eulerian to simulate changes of ice surface topography and generated runoff 4. Image processing and remote sensing approaches Quiroga et al., 2013 Rastner et al., 2016 Study satellite images of different years
9 Hydrological modeling vs Glacier retreat modeling Glacier melt is not the only component in hydrological cycle, For discharge and crop yield we need rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, and etc. Concurrent modeling of glacier evolution and hydrological systems is mainly there are three approaches for simultaneous modeling of glacier evolution and hydrological cycle Hydrologic Model GM Glacier Model HM Hydrologic Model Glacier Model
10 Which hydrologic model should be coupled to which glacier model? WaSiM-ETH HSPF MIKE SHE HEC HBV.. SWAT GERM GSM.
11 Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) Has been widely applied to model the glaciers retreat, changes in topography and outline of glaciers, runoff generated by glacier melt and model the impact of climate change on glacier retreat GERM Characteristics: Continuous time Physically based Distributed parameter Flexible basin discretization Climate drivers: Temperature and precipitation Ablation GERM The daily generated runoff from ice melt (simulated by GERM) is added to the daily time series of flow of point sources in SWAT
12 Overlaying SWAT Sub-basins map with GERM grids Sub1 2,3,7,8,12,13 Sub2 3,4,5,8,9,13,141,15 Sub3 13,14,15,17,18,19,20 22,23,24,25,28,29 + portion s of grids which are located in each sub-basin
13 Tools for automation of overlaying
14 GERM daily Accumulation for each grid: Huss et al 2008, 2010
15 Daily Accumulation for each grid: Climate_ref folder: 45150p.txt 45150t.txt 45151p.txt Pcp.txt Tmp.txt aletsch_dem_1957.grid Sub_grids_Dsnow.txt Sub_climate_ref.txt Sub_demgrids_correlation.txt aletsch_dem_index.grid
16 GERM Daily Ablation input files: Climate_ref folder: 45150p.txt 45150t.txt 45151p.txt Pcp.txt Tmp.txt Sub_grids_FM.txt Sub_grids_Rsnow.txt Sub_grids_Ipot.txt Sub_climate_ref.txt Sub_demgrids_correlation.txt c aletsch_dem_index.grid Ablation is modeled with a distribution temperature-index approach ff mm : melt factor rr ssssssss or rr iiiiii two distinct radiation factors for snow and ice II pppppp,ii : the potential direct clear sky solar radiation at grid cell i TT ii : mean daily air temperature (C), for TT ii < 0 not melts occures
17 GERM annul update of surface topography and outline: Huss et al 2010 GERM Daily outputs Daily generated runoff is calculated based on mass balance at each grid RRRRRRRRRRRR ii = AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ii - AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ii
18 Flexible GERM Architecture Ablation is modeled with a distribution
19 Study Area Aletsch Glacier Total catchment area: 196 kkkk 2, Glacier area: 82 kkkk 2, Ice volume:15 kkkk 3 ice (20% of Swiss ice) Simulation: mm Altesch-Monthly Precipitation Runoff
20 Altesch Glacier Project Dem 4194m Landuse 1328m Climate stns, Guage stn River Soil
21 Runoff simulation in Glacierized Catchments Initial Simulation Q(M3/S) What we want after calibration Q(M3/S)
22 Building a model Overlaying Sub-basin map and rater (50m grids) map to obtain list of all sub-basins with located grids inside
23 Results Ice Thickness m 2009
24 Results Ice Thickness ( ) 2009 Accumulation dominated (blue) Ablation dominated (red) Years Ice Volume (km3) Ice Length (km)
25 Calibration Protocol of Glacierized Catchments 1. Original Run Q(M3/S) 2. Tlaps and Plaps (1) Q(M3/S)
26 Calibration Protocol of Glacierized Catchments 3. Tlaps and Plaps (2) Q(M3/S) 4. Tlaps and Plaps (fixed) Q(M3/S)
27 Calibration Protocol of Glacierized Catchments 5. Snow Parameters (1) Q(M3/S) 6. Snow Parameters (fixed) Q(M3/S)
28 Calibration Protocol of Glacierized Catchments 7. General Hydrologic parameters (1) Q(M3/S) 8. General Hydrologic parameters (2) + glacier/springs Q(M3/S)
29 Impact of Climate Change on Aketsch Glacier retreat? 5 global GCMs, RCP8.5 (CMIP5) from ISI-MIP dataset available in SWAT format at ( ) at 0.5 degree resolution Future , and SWAT-formatted precipitation, max and min temperature GCM Scenarios Institute GFDL-ESM2M RCP 8.5 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA) HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 Met Office Hadley Centre (United Kingdom) IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP 8.5 Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace (France) MIROC RCP 8.5 AORI, NIES and JAMSTEC (Japan) NoerESM1-M RCP 8.5 Norwegian Climate Center (Norway)
30 Impact of Climate Change on Aketsch Glacier retreat? Years Ice Volume (km3) Ice Length (km)
31 Thank you for your attention!
32 GREM annul update of surface topography and outline: Huss et al 2010 GREM Daily outputs Daily generated runoff is calculated based on mass balance at each grid RRRRRRRRRRRR ii = AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ii - AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ii - EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE ii
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