Turmoil in the Global Biosphere A View from Space

Transcription

1 BIOTECHNO Keynote Venice/Mestre, Italy, May 2011 Turmoil in the Global Biosphere A View from Space S. V. Nghiem 1, P. Clemente-Colón 2, I. G. Rigor 3, D. K. Perovich 4, and G. Neumann 1 1 NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA 2 National Ice Center, Washington, DC, USA 3 Polar Science Center, University of Washington, WA, USA 4 Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab. NH, USA Copyright All rights reserved.

2 Objective Satellite observations of environmental changes that impact the biosphere in ocean, ice, land, atmosphere

3 January 6, 2001

4 January 6, 2011 Half of the extent of old thick Perennial sea ice was loss. WHY?

5 Animation of sea ice 20 frames per second SEA ICE CLASSES Seasonal Mixed ice Perennial Melt

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7 Implications Perennial sea ice reduction Arctic dominated by seasonal ice Saltier ice surface over vast region with more: FY, leads, polynyas, frost flowers More sources for bromine explosion causing more ozone depletion/mercury deposition

8 Impact? Deposition of mercury Toxic to human and wildlife

9 Action? United Nations: Intergovernmental negotiation for Global Mercury Treaty

10 Impact on Polar Bear Habitat Jan 2001 Jan 2011 Polar bears need sea ice to hunt and live Major loss of perennial sea ice north of Alaska Polar bears are listed as threatened species

11 Survey of Arctic Ringed Seal (Phoca Hispida) Kelly and Nghiem, IGARSS, QuikSCAT Diurnal Signature (db) QuikSCAT diurnal radar signature (db) Fraction of visible seal population 2 db threshold 50% visible seals Result from Prudhoe Bay ringed seal survey (2000) Fraction of Visible Seal 4/1/2000 4/16/2000 5/1/2000 5/16/2000 5/31/2000 6/15/2000 What if seals come out too early due to early snow melt on sea ice? Death by predation Death by melt/freeze

12 Seal Death by Predation Photo D. K. Perovich Nghiem/12

13 Estimated Distribution of Capelin tonnes/square nautical mile for September-October 2001 Gjøsæter, H., Survey Report, Norway, Mallotus villosus Capelin [Jordan and Evermann, ]

14 Nghiem et al., JGR, 2005 Svalbard Sea-Ice Barrier Formation

15 Nghiem et al., JGR, 2005 Bathymetric Control of Water Masses

16 Greenland Melt Observed by QuikSCAT and Passive Microwave Steffen et al., GRL, 2004

17 Nghiem et al., Dynamic Planet, 2007 WEST ANTARCTICA

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20 Snowmelt Days and Flood Severity S f =0.01 ln(d) S c A ½ D=0 day 2000 No S Flood c =0 Flood of 3Century Extensive 1 Flood 1 70,000 people displaced 1,500 people displaced A=0 km 2 US$ 2,857,000 2,000,000,000 US$ 85,630 not yet available 62,480 Last major flood in 1998 (Source: Red Cross/CNN) S f = -na Significant Flood Flood damages data not yet available 4.9

21 19-Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-04 9-Feb Mar-04 9-Apr-04 9-May-04 8-Jun-04 8-Jul-04 7-Aug-04 6-Sep-04 6-Oct-04 5-Nov-04 5-Dec-04 4-Jan-05 3-Feb-05 5-Mar-05 4-Apr-05 4-May-05 3-Jun-05 3-Jul-05 2-Aug-05 1-Sep-05 1-Oct Oct Nov Dec T, degrees K x Discharge, m3/sec Reach 1, Lena River, Russia Measurement Reach Calibration Target Low Flow Flood Major Flood Estimated Discharge 19-Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-04 9-Feb Mar-04 9-Apr-04 9-May-04 8-Jun-04 8-Jul-04 7-Aug-04 6-Sep-04 6-Oct-04 5-Nov-04 5-Dec-04 4-Jan-05 3-Feb-05 5-Mar-05 4-Apr-05 4-May-05 3-Jun-05 3-Jul-05 2-Aug-05 1-Sep-05 1-Oct Oct Nov Dec T, degrees K x Discharge, ft3/sec Reach 187, Wabash River, Indiana Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-04 9-Feb Mar-04 9-Apr-04 9-May-04 8-Jun-04 8-Jul-04 7-Aug-04 6-Sep-04 6-Oct-04 5-Nov-04 5-Dec-04 4-Jan-05 3-Feb-05 5-Mar-05 4-Apr-05 4-May-05 3-Jun-05 3-Jul-05 2-Aug-05 1-Sep-05 1-Oct Oct Nov Dec T, degrees K x Discharge, ft3/sec Reach 134, Red River, North Dakota Stream Flow Measurement by Satellite (Brakenridge, Nghiem, Anderson, and Mic, WRR, 2007)

22 Stream Flow and Flood Monitoring Pakistan Flood August 2010 (Nghiem and Brakenridge, URSI, 2010) Indus River ID 298 AMSR-E discharge (m 3 /s) 5-year Flood 1.33-year Flood August 2010 Flood Peak AMSR-E Stream Flow Largest flood peak in August 2010 in 8-year AMSR-E record. About 2X 5-year flood stage MODIS Flood Monitoring Blue: Flooding from MODIS data acquired 1-4 August Delineate inundation areas along the Indus River in Pakistan Results are used by: Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (JRC/United Nations), Humanitarian Early Warning (UNICEF/WFP), Reactions (Global Insurance Intelligence), etc.

23 QuikSCAT and US Drought Monitor October 11, 2004 October 12, 2004 October 5, 2004 October 12, 2004

24 Severely Dry California Winter

25 Virga - Dry Thunderstorm NWS

26 The Case of Jesusita Fire May 2009

27 Santa Barbara on 2 May 2009 Maximum temperature was 73 o F, 49% minimum humidity

28 Santa Barbara on 3 May 2009 Maximum temperature was 89 o F breaking the record set in 1984; 27% min. humidity

29 Santa Barbara on 6 May 2009 Maximum temperature was ~100 o F breaking the record set in 1991; wildfire flared up

30 Wildfire Extent on 7 May 2009 Jesusita fire extent (orange) from MODIS data by USFS RSAC (3D overlay by Nghiem)

31 Conclusion Satellites enable unprecedented capabilities to observe and monitor the Earth allowing new assessments of environmental change impacts on the global biosphere across ocean, ice, land, and atmosphere. Contact