TOWARDS AN APPLIED SCIENCE OF PAST DISASTERS.

Transcription

1 TOWARDS AN APPLIED SCIENCE OF PAST DISASTERS. Felix Riede, Aarhus University, DK. 2 nd Science fr the Envirnment Cnference. Århus, Oct. 3 rd -4 th, Materials, Culture & Heritage Christmas Seminar. December 12 th, præsen TATION

2 Climate change archaelgy (van de Nrt 2011; 2013). Trigger f eclgical and scial change CAUSATION Narrative and analytical device SOCIOLOGY Eruptin parameters and stratigraphic marker in palaeenvirnmental archives GEOSCIENCE Revealer f scial structures, tensins and trends DISASTER SCIENCE Stratigraphic marker in culture-histrical archives ARCHAEOLOGY Natural experiments f histry/cmparative methd/case-cntrl studies METHOD

3 INTRODUCTION. CLIMATE CHANGE <> NATURAL DISASTERS. We are living in a climate f fear abut ur future climate. The language f the public discurse arund glbal warming rutinely uses a repertire which includes wrds such as catastrphe, terrr, danger, extinctin and cllapse. T help make sense f this phenmenn the stry f the cmplex relatinships between climates and cultures in different times and in different places is in urgent need f telling. If we can understand frm the past smething f this cmplex interweaving f ur ideas f climate with their physical and cultural settings we may be better placed t prepare fr different cnfiguratins f this relatinship in the future. Hulme (2008:5) 3

4 INTRODUCTION. TOWARDS AN APPLIED SCIENCE OF PAST DISASTERS What is at stake? Natural experiments f histry the tw-step case-cntrl methdlgy. Synchrnic effects > diachrnic effects > cmpsite effect predictins. Revealing vulnerability & respnse patterns. Far field/cascade effects. Migratin as adaptatin. Religius cping respnses. Cnclusin ptential f an applied science f past disasters. Past events as warning scenaris. Cultural heritage as participatry resilience/cmmunicatin resurce Eurpean value added. 4 4

5 WHAT IS AT STAKE? 12+% f the wrld s ppulatin (850+ millin peple) live in current znes f vlcanic hazard (Small et al. 2001). General warming especially in Eurpe crrelates with increased vlcanism, i.e. current trends may lead t mre frequent eruptins (Nwell et al. 2001; Pagli & Sigmundssn 2008; Sigmundssn et al. 2010). c. 30 disciplines invlved in disaster research, with 95% f funding ges t STEM subjects (Alexander 1995; 1997). Climate change may be catastrphic in the future & is perceived as catastrphic in the present (e.g. Hulme 2008). 5

6 NATURAL EXPERIMENTS OF HISTORY. THE CASE-CONTROL METHODOLOGY. Since disasters serve as scial labratries, revealers, and smetimes triggers f critical preexisting situatins, emphasis shuld be placed n understanding the surrunding and prir scicultural cntext and vulnerability t the effects f a certain hazard. Garcia-Acsta (2002: 65). Histrically-based & evidence-based retrdictins f actual scietal climate impacts. Vastly enlarged event sciety database. Adds human dimensin immediacy t studies f past envirnmental events. 6

7 NATURAL EXPERIMENTS OF HISTORY. THE CASE-CONTROL METHODOLOGY. STEP 1: Synchrnic/prximal-t-distal/within case Study regins Selected cases Selected cntrls Perturbed Nt perturbed Perturbed Nt perturbed STEP 2: Diachrnic/acrss cases 7

8 STEP 1: LAACHER SEE ERUPTION. 13,000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT (BP). Large (M= 6.2) and intense (I= 11.6) Plinian eruptin. 20+ km 3 f material ejected ver several days t mnths. Rhine dammed later fld waves km tall ash clumn. 1,400 km 2 cvered in near-vent tephra depsits between 50-1m. Animal tracks, including varius birds, Ursus sp. and Equus sp. Burned frests & ther macrbtanical remains. Plethra f archaelgical sites f all sizes. Seasn: late spring/early summer Schmincke et al. (1999) 8

9 STEP 1: LAACHER SEE ERUPTION. 13,000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT (BP). N LST /cuntry Austria Belgium Denmark 100 France Germany Italy Luxemburg Netherlands Pland Sweden Switzerland 9

10 STEP 1: LAACHER SEE ERUPTION. 13,000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT (BP). 10

11 STEP 1: LAACHER SEE ERUPTION. 13,000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT (BP). Migratin & ppulatin fragmentatin 11

12 STEP 1: LAACHER SEE ERUPTION. 13,000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT (BP). A befre 13,000 BP B after 13,000 BP

13 STEP 2: 3600 BP THERA, AD 536 ILOPANGO, 2010 EYJAFJALLAJÖKULL ERUPTION, Impact, esp. in the far-field, related as much r mre t scietal than gelgical parameters. Cnnectedness f affected ppulatins. Indirect plitical effects stand clear. Religius wrldviews and institutins always appear t play sme rle. Husehld-level crisis management strategies reflect resilience/vulnerability. 13

14 STEP 2: 3600 BP THERA, AD 536 ILOPANGO, 2010 EYJAFJALLAJÖKULL ERUPTION, 14

15 CONCLUSION. POTENTIAL OF AN APPLIED SCIENCE OF PAST DISASTERS. 15

16 CONCLUSION. POTENTIAL OF AN APPLIED SCIENCE OF PAST DISASTERS. Impact/respnse type N events N peple affected Killed ~250 ~90,000 Injured ~150 ~16,000 Hmeless/infrastructure damage ~100 ~300,000 Evacuated/migratin ~250 ~5,000, th -century eruptin, after Witham (2005). 16

17 CONCLUSION. POTENTIAL OF AN APPLIED SCIENCE OF PAST DISASTERS. Using pssibilist thinking (Clarke 2007; 2008) as a tl fr preparedness als in relatin t existentialist risks (Rees 2013). Past events as building blcks fr future warning scenaris bth gelgically and scially (Mastrlrenz et al. 2006; Riede in prep.). Effects n mbility migratin as adaptatin with its plitical and ecnmic implicatins (Black et al. 2011). Cultural heritage nt nly as passive victim f climate change (see Blue Shield, Nah s Ark), but as resilience resurce with Eurpean value added. Cultural heritage as lcal/reginal participatry tl (= infrmatin/identify surce) fr change agents a usable past (Stump 2013). 17

18 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. The Danish Agency fr Science, Innvatin & Technlgy (grant ). The LaPaDiS members and assciates. Department f Culture & Sciety, Aarhus University. AHRC Centre fr the Evlutin f Cultural Diversity, UCL. The British Academy. The McDnald Institute fr Archaelgical Research, University f Cambridge. The NERC RESET Cnsrtium. 18