Digitalisation of industrial processes: what effects on the volume of employment?
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1 Digitalisatin f industrial prcesses: what effects n the vlume f emplyment? Presentatin f external research Laurent Zibell, Plicy Adviser Cnference: The digital transfrmatin f industrial prducts and prcesses: scial cnsequences, trade unin actin Brussels, Nvember 2015
2 Industrial prcesses: Prduct design Manufacturing Maintenance
3 Digitalisatin f industrial prcesses: cntradictry anticipated effects Replacement f human labur with cmputer-led machines Imprved prductivity (higher value, less usage f resurces), re-shring
4 Surces Frey & Osbrne, Oxfrd University (2013) The future f emplyment. Hw susceptible are jbs t cmputerizatin? Bwles, Bruegel (2014) Chart f the Week: 54% f EU jbs at risk f cmputerisatin Pajarinen & Ruvinen, ETLA (2014) Cmputerizatin Threatens One Third f Finnish Emplyment ZEW Mannheim (2015) Übertragung der Studie vn Frey/Osbrne auf Deutschland Fraunhfer ISI, Karlsruhe (2015) Analysis f the impact f rbtic systems n emplyment in the Eurpean Unin
5 Surces The research that triggered the debate! Frey & Osbrne, Oxfrd University (2013) The future f emplyment. Hw susceptible are jbs t cmputerizatin? Bwles, Bruegel (2014) Chart f the Week: 54% f EU jbs at risk f cmputerisatin Pajarinen & Ruvinen, ETLA (2014) Cmputerizatin Threatens One Third f Finnish Emplyment ZEW Mannheim (2015) Übertragung der Studie vn Frey/Osbrne auf Deutschland Fraunhfer ISI, Karlsruhe (2015) Analysis f the impact f rbtic systems n emplyment in the Eurpean Unin
6 Frey & Osbrne (2013) questin Vulnerability f jb categries t being replaced by cmputer-led machines Technlgical perspective f advanced rbtics: Machine learning with pattern recgnitin based n big data sets Imprved sensrs Only the substitutin effect is cnsidered
7 Frey & Osbrne (2013) methd (1/2) 702 jb categries in the US, with standardised descriptin parameters Main technical bstacles t cmputerizatin: Perceptin and manipulatin (finger / manual dexterity, cramped wrk space) Creative intelligence (riginality, fine arts) Scial intelligence (scial perceptiveness, negtiatin, persuasin, assisting & caring f thers) Many bstacles Less vulnerability
8 Frey & Osbrne (2013) methd (2/2) Attributin f prbability f cmputerisatin t each jb categry Labur statistics: number f wrkers in each categry Number f wrkers in each categry f risk: lw / medium / high High risk = replacement in years
9 Frey & Osbrne 2013 US data: 47% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin
10 Frey & Osbrne 2013 US data: 47% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin Prductin
11 Frey & Osbrne 2013 US data: 47% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin Prductin Maintenance
12 Frey & Osbrne 2013 US data: 47% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin Prductin Maintenance Design
13 Frey & Osbrne 2013 UK data: 35% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin
14 Frey & Osbrne 2013 UK data: 35% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin Prductin
15 Frey & Osbrne 2013 UK data: 35% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin Maintenance Prductin
16 Frey & Osbrne 2013 UK data: 35% f wrk-frce at high risk f cmputerisatin Maintenance Prductin Design
17 Fr Bwles (2014), the average fractin f jbs at high risk f cmputerisatin in the EU is 54% SE: 46.7% UK: 47.2% FR: 49.5% DE: 51.1% IT: 56.2% ES: 55.3% PL: 56.3% RO: 61.9%
18 Pajarinen & Ruvinen (2014) extraplate t the case f Finland
19 Pajarinen & Ruvinen (2014) extraplate t the case f Finland 50% f manufacturing jbs at high risk f cmputerisatin
20 ZEW Mannheim (2015) achieves much lwer figures fr Germany with ther methds (1/2) Task-based methd: If a jb cntains tasks that are cnsidered as difficult t cmputerize (interactin incl. exchange f infrmatin, analysis), risk is lwer Based n PIAAC data (OECD cmpetencies f adults; 2013): descriptin f prfessinal tasks perfrmed Much higher prprtin f medium risk levels Sme methdlgical difficulties
21 ZEW Mannheim (2015) achieves much lwer figures fr Germany with ther methds (2/2) 12% at high risk in DE 9% at high risk in USA
22 Risk f cmputerisatin is higher fr Lwer levels f qualificatin Lwer wages
23 Cmmn cnclusins f researchers Risk f cmputerisatin is higher fr: Lwer levels f qualificatin Lwer wages
24 (Frey & Osbrne, 2013)
25 Fraunhfer ISI (2015): n effect f rbtisatin n emplyment at cmpany level Eurpean Manufacturing Survey (2009): 3,700 firms, 10 cuntries At cmpany level: Imprvement in prductivity (gain in vlume r market share?) N reductin in emplyment Sunk csts: less prpensity t re-lcate utside EU
26 Critical assessment f studies (1/2) Over-assessment f technlgical ptential Need t include ecnmic prfitability f investment in cmputerisatin / rbtisatin Lw prfitability if glbal supply f cheap labur (will it be replicated beynd China?) Increased prfitability with lwer ICT price Investment cncentrated n middle qualificatin jbs? = expensive enugh t justify investment, easy enugh t cmputerise
27 Critical assessment f studies (2/2) Macr-ecnmic cmpensatin: hw will the prductivity gains be shared? Lwer prices fr custmers Higher salaries Re-shring f prductin Shrter wrking time increased vlumes in the same / different sectr? US experience: Only 0.5% f wrkfrce emplyed in new industries created in the 21 st century (Internet publishing and bradcasting; Electrnic shpping; Data prcessing & hsting; Electrnic auctins - Berger & Frey, 2014)
28 Prvisinal cnclusins (1/2) Risk f cmputerisatin is higher fr: Rutine jbs Well-specified tasks Cntrlled envirnments Lwer levels f qualificatin Lwer wages
29 Prvisinal cnclusins (1/2) Risk f cmputerisatin is higher fr: Rutine jbs Well-specified tasks Cntrlled envirnments Lwer levels f qualificatin Lwer wages Risk f cmputerisatin is lwer fr: Installatin & maintenance jbs Engineering, R&D, sftware
30 Prvisinal cnclusins (1/2) Risk f cmputerisatin is higher fr: Rutine jbs Well-specified tasks Cntrlled envirnments Lwer levels f qualificatin Lwer wages Risk f cmputerisatin is lwer fr: Installatin & maintenance jbs Engineering, R&D, sftware Typical f prductin in industry
31 Prvisinal cnclusins (1/2) Risk f cmputerisatin is higher fr: Rutine jbs Well-specified tasks Cntrlled envirnments Lwer levels f qualificatin Lwer wages Typical f prductin in industry Risk f cmputerisatin is lwer fr: Installatin & maintenance jbs Engineering, R&D, sftware A new Eurpean industrial mdel?
32 Prvisinal cnclusins (2/2): Issues t be further studied + debated Re- and up-skilling f the existing wrk frce
33 Prvisinal cnclusins (2/2): Issues t be further studied + debated Re- and up-skilling f the existing wrk frce Sharing f prductivity gains
34 Prvisinal cnclusins (2/2): Issues t be further studied + debated Re- and up-skilling f the existing wrk frce Sharing f prductivity gains New industrial mdel fr Eurpe
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