GCD WORKSHOP E. TRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO GEOMORPHIC CHANGE DETECTION
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1 GCD WORKSHOP ICRRR Workshop Joe Wheaton THE BACKGROUND PROBLEM Rivers change through time how do we detect that change? 1
2 BECOMING EASIER TO TRACK CHANGE... Wheaton (2008) HOW CAN WE CALCULATE CHANGE? Given these DEMs through time, what could we use to calculate change? 2
3 DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions DEM DIFFERENCING RASTER CALCULATOR. Simple method of quantifying spatial variations in change in storage terms of a sediment budget. CONSERVATION OF MASS VOLUMETRIC dvb Qbi Qbo ( 1 ) dt Volumetric rate of bed material transport Porosity of bed material Mclean & Church (1988) Water Resources Research Wheaton (2008) 3
4 WHAT S THE HISTOGRAM OF? What about the DoD? Values on vertical derived in different ways Same information revealed differently Multiply count by cell size 2 to get area Erosion Deposition Amplifies higher magnitude change portions of distribution Multiply area by elevation change to get volume WHY IS SO MUCH OF DoD DISTRIBUTION CENTERED AROUND ZERO? Is it real? Are there just a lot of small changes? What needs to happen to get NO change? What is likelihood of measuring exact same value? 4
5 DEM DIFFERENCING RASTER CALCULATOR. Simple method of quantifying spatial variations in change in storage terms of a sediment budget. CONSERVATION OF MASS VOLUMETRIC dvb Qbi Qbo ( 1 ) dt Volumetric rate of bed material transport Porosity of bed material Mclean & Church (1988) Water Resources Research Wheaton 2008 THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM 1. Reliability Uncertainty: Of the predicted changes, what can we actually distinguish from noise? Z Actual Z DEM z z We want: z t z But, z t 2. Structural Uncertainty: Geomorphically, what do the calculated changes mean? Wheaton (2008) 5
6 UNCERTAINTY Lack of sureness about something NOT a lack of knowledge. Figure Adapted from Van Asselt and Rotmans (2002): DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions 6
7 5 MINUTES DoD w/ Sulphur Creek, CA DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions 7
8 MINIMUM LEVEL OF DETECTION Distinguish those changes that are real from noise Errors assumed to be spatially uniform, but can vary temporally Error assumed to be unbiased (toward erosion or deposition) Should there be change everywhere? HOW DOES A MIN LoD GET APPLIED? You take original DoD, and remove all changes <= min LoD For example +/- 20 cm How would you do that? What is the assumption here? 8
9 VARYING min LoD THRESHOLDS z f z, z DEM old DEM new THE PROBLEM: Discards between: 70% & 95% of areal budget 45% & 65% of volumetric budget Much of which is probably meaningful change z z 2 z 2 DEM old DEM new Wheaton 2008 DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions 9
10 THRESHOLD THE DoD DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions 10
11 MINLoD USING ERROR PROPAGATION Distinguish those changes that are real from noise Use standard Error Propagation Errors assumed to be spatially uniform, but can vary temporally z z DEM old 2 z DEM new 2 Elevation (Time 1) z DEM old 10cm Elevation (Time 2) z DEM new 20cm e.g. z cm 8.8 in See Brasington et al (2000): ESPL Lane et al (2003): ESPL Brasington et al (2003): Geomorphology MINLoD GETS APPLIED SAME WAY Does not matter whether the min LoD is specified, or calculated from error propagation 11
12 WHAT ARE TYPICAL ERRORS? Remotely Sensed or Aerial Surveys LiDaR : +/- 12 to 25 cm Aerial Photogrammetry : +/- 10 to 15 cm Ground-Based Surveys Total Station Surveys : +/- 2 to 10 cm GPS: : +/- 3 to 12 cm Terrestrial Laser Scanning: +/- 0.5 to 4 cm SO WHAT WOULD PROPAGATED ERRORS BE? Remotely Sensed or Aerial Surveys LiDaR : +/- 12 to 25 cm (17 to 36 cm minlod) Aerial Photogrammetry : +/- 10 to 15 cm(14 to 22 cm min LoD) Ground-Based Surveys Total Station Surveys : +/- 2 to 10 cm (3 to 14 cm min LoD) GPS: : +/- 3 to 12 cm (4 to 17 cm min LoD) Terrestrial Laser Scanning: +/- 0.5 to 4 cm (0.7 to 6 cm min LoD) 12
13 DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions HOW COULD I REPRESENT AS PROBABILITY? Using inferential statistics, we ll calculate a t-score σ DoD is the characteristic uncertainty In this case σ DoD = minlod t z DEM new z DEM old DoD Just the ratio of actual change to min LoD change Assuming two-tailed test, t is significant at: 68% confidence limit when t= 1 95% confidence limit when t=
14 PROBABILITY THAT CHANGE IS REAL Even when min LoD is spatially constant, probability varies in space why? Wheaton (2008) DETAIL PLAN E. A. Background Problem B. Basic DEM Differencing C. Raster Calculator DoD Example D. Simple Thresholding E. Raster Calculator Threshold Example F. Error Propagation G. Probabilistic Thresholding H. Questions 14
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