Central Asia High Elevation International Geophysical (HEIG) Project, since 2015

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1 Central Asia High Elevation International Geophysical (HEIG) Project, since 2015 Under auspices of UNESCO: the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP), the US, Japan, Germany, China, France, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan cooperation

The HEIGE Goal Synthesize and integrate multiple disciplines to develop fundamental understanding the interaction between climate and alpine cryosphere in the high central Asia endorheic basin: the

2 The HEIGE Goal Synthesize and integrate multiple disciplines to develop fundamental understanding the interaction between climate and alpine cryosphere in the high central Asia endorheic basin: the past, present and possible future variability contributed to water resources of the world largest endorheic basin. Will climate thresholds be crossed that change the current state of water resources, and if so where, how fast, and how much? How will local and regional changes in climate, snow cover, glaciers, and permafrost impact the regional hydrology, water quality, land degradation, bio-ecology, food production and human health?

3 Current state of knowledge 80% information about low lands. Two third of observations discontinued after the 1991 Little knowledge about climate and cryosphere dynamics over 4000 m a.s.l., while the major snow/ice/permafrost area spread over this elevation range Vast satellite information does not fulfill the gap Need ground observations in representative for local benchmark areas for the remote sensing data calibration

4 What has been done toward of the goals and objectives

The Central Asia study area and climatic regions 1. Kazakh Steppe (KS), 2. Aral-Caspian Desert (AD), 3. Tarim (TR), 4. Siberian Altai-Sayan (SA), 5. Mongolian (MA) Altai, 6. Western Tien Shan (WT), 7.

5 The Central Asia study area and climatic regions 1. Kazakh Steppe (KS), 2. Aral-Caspian Desert (AD), 3. Tarim (TR), 4. Siberian Altai-Sayan (SA), 5. Mongolian (MA) Altai, 6. Western Tien Shan (WT), 7. Northern Tien Shan (NT), 8. Issyk Kul (IK), 9. Inner Tien Shan IT), 10. Eastern Tien Shan (ET), 11. Central Tien Shan (CT), 12. Western Pamir (WP), 13. Pamiro-Alai (PA), 14. Central Pamir (CP), 15. Eastern Pamir (EP)

Central Asia meteo-stations 412 meteorological stations located at

Mongolia and Caspian Sea, and between south Siberia and Tibetan Plateau.

assessment: before 1975/76 and after 1976.

6 Central Asia meteo-stations 412 meteorological stations located at elevation rage between -25 m below sea level to 4169 m asl, between Mongolia and Caspian Sea, and between south Siberia and Tibetan Plateau. The 70 years period divided for two periods for the climate acceleration assessment: before 1975/76 and after All data has checked for random errors. Number stations in operation Area and number of stations by elevations

Difference in long term normal air temperature between two periods: 1940-1976 and 1977 2011. The annual mean air temperatures increases +0.65 C and +0.

7 Difference in long term normal air temperature between two periods: and The annual mean air temperatures increases C and +0.9 C in the summer, particularly at the Aral Sea and Balkhash Lake areas. The lowest difference is in the mountains above 3000 m Winter Spring Summer Autumn

temperature between 1951-1976 and 1977 2010 Difference of long-term standard

8 Difference of long-term standard deviation of winter air temperature between and Difference of long-term standard deviation of summer air temperature between and Difference of long-term standard deviation of annual air temperature between and in different elevation ranges

in the peripheral regions of central Asia, while summer

9 Difference in long term normal precipitation between two periods: and Annual precipitation increased in the peripheral regions of central Asia, while summer precipitation decreased; particularly in Tien Shan Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Difference of long-term standard deviation of winter precipitation between 1951-1976 and 1977 2010

10 Difference of long-term standard deviation of winter precipitation between and Difference of long-term standard deviation of summer precipitation between and

51%). Duration of snow melt from the date of maximum snow cover to the date of it s disappearance reduced by 30 days in Tien Shan and Pamir.

11 6,056,480 km2 is annually covered by snow in Central Asia (about 45% of the total study area of 13,500,000 km2). Pamir and Tien Shan show significant decrease in trend of SCA percentage per decade above m asl (-3.22% to -4.06%) but elevated in Altai (+2.51%). Duration of snow melt from the date of maximum snow cover to the date of it s disappearance reduced by 30 days in Tien Shan and Pamir. Perennial snow covered area, % (PSCP) from 1975 to 2014 Long-term mean 8-day SCAP and maximum SCAP for each climatic region (red star shows the date for maximum SCAP, light blue span indicates 2 std of SCAP)

only places showing significant changes under Mann-Kendal test with

12 Trend of snow covered duration in different elevation ranges. Trend of SCD in different elevation ranges within each climatic region There only places showing significant changes under Mann-Kendal test with significant level of 0.05 were included. Red dots indicate mean values while red lines indicate median values

13 Siberian Altai: Wiith the glaciers larger than 0.1 km2, there were 1428 glaciers with an area of 1285 km2 in 2011 Pamir : km2 in the 1970 s and km2 in 2011 Tien Shan: km2 in the 1970 s and km2 in 2011 ~ 35% of the total glacier covered area in high mountains of Asia

14 Glacier area changes in Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir since 1960s

15 Two largest glacier massifs in Central Asia: in Central Pamir and Central Tien Shan

30 m Lowering of the glaciers surface, m -90-80 -80-70 -70-60

16 30 m Lowering of the glaciers surface, m glaciers, 2,205 km 2 in % area change between 1972 and m lowering of the glaciers surface in average (-0.2 km 3 )

17 Glacier surface elevation changes in Central Pamir Changes of mean elevation of glaciers in Fedchenko Mountain Massif by sub-regions (a), area class (b), slope group (c) and aspect (d)

elevation of glaciers in Inylchek Mountain Massif by

18 Glacier surface elevation changes in Central Tien Shan (Inylchek glacier massif) Changes of mean elevation of glaciers in Inylchek Mountain Massif by subregions (a), area class (b), slope group (c) and aspect (d)

19 The surging glaciers, Central Pamir (A) Central Pamir, KH-9, 1975, SRTM 2000) 215 glaciers with unstable dynamics 51 surging glaciers. B A (B) Medvejiy Glacier in the surging stage, aerial photography, (C) Medvejiy Glacier (KH-9 and SRTM 2000) C Medvejiy Gl.

(A) Changes of the Fedchenko Glacier tongue between 1928 and 2012.

flow line at the Fedchenko Glacier between 1928 and 2000 (2009).

20 (A) Changes of the Fedchenko Glacier tongue between 1928 and The Corona image from 1968 is shown in the background; (B) Elevation changes and elevation along the central flow line at the Fedchenko Glacier between 1928 and 2000 (2009). The surface data is derived from the maps (1928, 1958), SRTM data and GPS data from measurements in The volume loss 5 km³ over the period of 81 years relates to an initial volume of 131 km³ in 1928 (3.8%).

21 (Marchenko et al, 2007)

22 Temperature degrees Celsius Temperature degrees Celsius δ 18 O 0-5 Grigorieva (Tien Shan) Ice Core δ 18 O. Takeuchi, Aizen, West Belukha (Altai) Ice Core Temperature. Aizen et al, 2016 Holocene Climate Optimum Severe Centennial Drought Prolong Warm Period Bølling-Allerød Interstadial Younger Dryas GISP2 (Greenland) Ice Core Temperature. Alley, R.B Age - Thousands of Years Before the Present 0

Installation of the first weather station at an altitude of 5520 m asl, Central Pamir, 2015 We plan to install 10-15 high elevation meteorological

All stations will be combined in one satellite data transmission system and the data will be available through the GCW portal after initial

23 Installation of the first weather station at an altitude of 5520 m asl, Central Pamir, 2015 We plan to install high elevation meteorological stations in Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir that will include the measurements of precipitation and snow accumulation. All stations will be combined in one satellite data transmission system and the data will be available through the GCW portal after initial analysis and standartization However, we are searching financial support for this project from international financial institutions or scientific agencies initiated through WMO and UNESCO.

results of our research in Asia high mountains (Altai, Tien Shan,

24 This data base site is in transition from Canadian commercial server to the University of Idaho This book will combine the results of our research in Asia high mountains (Altai, Tien Shan, Pamir and Tibet) completed with support of the NSF and NASA in last 15 years.

25 Without research on cryosphere issues research we will not be able to simulate the real scenario for climate and water resources change in central Asia The dried watercourse (Uzboi) between Aral and Caspian seas developed during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial (~19-12K BP)

26 Thank you!

Vladimir Aizen and Elena Aizen

Vladimir Aizen and Elena Aizen University of Idaho Changes in Climate, Snow, Glaciers and River Runoff in Central Asia in the past 100 years We shouldn t wait a gift from Mather- Nature, we must take it