An expert system for strategic management

Transcription

1 An expert system for strategic management V. Bougromenko & P. Shvetsov Research and consulting company Geogracom Moscow, Russia. Abstract This article sets out an approach to the problem of strategic spatial development through transport network re-organisation. The paper describes an expert system for strategic transport planning and introduces the concept of the Minimal Transport Standard (MTS). The authors have studied the experience of developed and developing countries and formulated a set of indices on the basis of ecological, economic, social and geopolitical parameters of spatial development. In order to derive the MTS indices it is necessary to determine strategic parameters of regional development (e.g. life expectancy, GDP per capita etc.) and set the planning horizon, and by doing so conceive the future for the present and next generations. The primary task of the expert system is to increase the quality of life by means of transport. Thus, effectiveness of transport functioning is of second priority and serves to ensure improvement and maintenance of the general conditions of living and business activity. The expert system is universal, but it has been mainly used in developing countries and the regions of the Russian Federation. 1 Introduction Since 1986 when P.Bonsal1 and H.Kirby [l] drew attention to the problem of using expert systems in the transport sector, no serious attempt has been made to create an expert system for strategic transport planning [5]. We do not argue that there are a lot of various information systems of good quality for transport sector needs, but they are all built to assist in current planning, while we are talking about strategic planning. The following is some types of transport systems: - ITS (Intelligence Transport Systems) design green lanes, automatic crossroads control, congestion elimination, automatic pilotage of land transport modes, traffic control (also with the use of GPS).

2 ~~ 2002 WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. All rights reserved. 86 Management Information Systems - Traditional systems, as a rule, use updated methods (especially from the graph theory) to design traffic flows, because flow forecast is still the main factor in transport investment projects. - Complex (technological in essence) systems, including Artificial Intelligence systems with powerful DBMS and integrated GIs. The example is HDM-4 (hdm4.piarc.org) and TRIPS ( that is widely used for complex urban transport systems. It is unquestionable now that a good system for strategic planning in any domain should be an expert system with a powerful knowledge base capable of a direct conversion of some narrow-purpose knowledge to common ideas about sustainable development. Relatively big and constantly renewed list of software products for all directions of transport development is available in the annual McTrans [6]. But we could not trace any system for strategic transport planning there. Hence there is a need for strategic expert systems that will address the reestimation of a fundamental understanding of the role of transport. For example, a lot of traditional views, approaches, methods, and criteria for measuring transport effectiveness changed drastically with the advent of a market economy in so many countries. Before, transport was based on determination of volumes - the achevement of transport activity. Certain systems for planning of transport development are oriented not so much towards the transport service users, but more towards the providers of transport services. Moreover, it often happens that interests of different transport modes are in conflict. That is why the issue of risk reduction by means of transport network improvement appears to be of extreme importance. Its effective solution will influence the economic and social development and ecological situation in a region. Thus, the achievement of desirable social and economic conditions in a region becomes the task of the strategic planning of any transport network. 2 Minimal Transport Standard What are the indices of end transport service consumption? We believe they should reflect the conditions of living and business activity, economic and social situation in a region. Collectively, they can be called a Minimal Transport Standard (MTS). Table 1: Indices for a Minimal Transport Standard (MTS) I The best current I Acceptable Indices values in developed values for developing countries countries Transport share in total pollution, % ~ 1 Share of motor transport in total transport pollution, % Transport network reliability (level of 2 transport accessibility), % Share of roads. % I

3 Management Information Systems 87 vel of transport discrimination of Freight capacity of economy, Share of public transport in passenger The MTS indices have a direct relation to the social conditions. The index of transport discrimination of the population (index 3) shows the percentage of the population that lives outside the zone of the normative accessibility, which means they are not provided with the acceptable level of transport services. Of cause, in small countries with a dense transport network (e.g. Belgium) this problem does not exist. But, in general, it is known even to developed countries like Canada or Austria, let alone developing countries and countries with a transitional economy. For example, in Russia transport discrimination of the population is 7040% in 9 out of 87 regions. Index 4 is in a way similar to index 3. The free time lost is time spent by every adult in excess of the norm during a week in order to receive services of the socially guaranteed minimum (education, medical treatment, shopping etc.). According to daily biorhythms a person should not spend more that two hours on trips a day. Otherwise trips start consuming time that should be devoted to rest, chldren and other household duties. Moreover, a low motorization level and poor transport network discourage people from travelling provolung increase in transport discrimination. The index of transport network reliability (index 2) is an indicator of the development level of a transport network. The almost century-old indices, llke the Engel s coefficient ( transport network length divided by size of territory or population size ), used to measure this parameter are somewhat dated. The one that is suggested here assesses a transport network in a different way. The concept of Integral Transport Accessibility (ITA) is essential for its better understanding. The transport network reliability is measured as ratio of actual

4 88 Management Information Systems ITA to normative ITA and characterises potential ability of a network to provide for any passenger and freight conveyances. ITA is time needed to reach a certain place from any other place within a given territory talung into account technical and topological reliability. Technical reliability allows transport system users to travel along road sections with a desired speed. Topological reliability is the possibility to keep a network in service when some of its sections are out of order. Bougromenko [4] explains that ITA is a key notion because it characterises in general the ability of a transport network to change the social and economic environment. ITA also helps to estimate the size of the population living outside the zones of standard transport accessibility (degree of transport discrimination of population), as well as free time loss. The monograph of Bougromenko [2] is solely devoted to the new analytical index of transport provision (contrary to Engel s descriptive index). The scope of this paper does not permit its detailed description, but here is the short version of the ITA formulation: Si - is an average (shortest) distance from every settlement i to all other network settlements (n); ki - is the coefficient of variation of the shortest routes; Ti - is the cyclicity coefficient for the settlement i (or connectedness probability - from the theory of radio systems reliability); V, - is a normative (technical) route speed. The most important indicator of is the index of population mobility (index 7), not general however but for social and cultural purposes (e.g. medical treatment, travelling, seeing friends etc.). Meanwhile, the number of obligatory trips (to work, collage etc.) should decrease. Numerous studies carried out in different countries showed that an average annual mobility of a person (measured in person-km) is more or less like a trip across the territory in question. In other words, an average annual distance traveled by a person within a certain territory will approximately equal the diameter of the inhabited territory. The MTS reflects aspiration of a society to values that can be acheved through a long-term outlook (10-15 years) with due regard to economic, social, political, ethnic and other peculiarities of a region. MTS is a transport image of a sustainable future. In order to calculate MTS with the help of the expert system Geogracom 5W the user has to determine strategic parameters of a region first (fig. 1). These parameters include GDP per capita, life expectancy, ecological safety, social expenditure, planning horizon. The parameters describing specific features of a region are also considered: present level of regional development (for example, it can describe transport network backwardness); potential regional development (defined by total prospected for reserves of power, timber and mineral resources); size of the economically developed territory.

5 Management Information Systems 89 The MTS indices from table 1 are interconnected through a set of strategic parameters (see fig. 1). In a special matrix even the slightest deviation of the strategic parameters from with certain intervals changes the MTS parameters. For example, fall of GDP per capita from USD to less than 1000 plus a low current level of economically developed territory brings the level of transport discrimination of population from 8 to 12%. In its turn, this kind of dependency is based on the world statistics of human development indices, and our own research work. Particularly, a detailed description of dependencies between population's income, transport accessibility and annual population mobility for social and cultural purposes (index 7) can be found in [3]. Figure 1: Input of the initial data for calculation of the MTS indices. Fig. 1. is an interface fragment of the first part of the expert system Geogracom 5W. It illustrates input of initial data needed for calculation of the MTS indices. 3 Functional structure of the expert system for strategic transport planning Systems for strategic planning of regional development "Geogracom 5W" and of urban development "Geograd 1 W" are file-server multi-user systems. The operational effectiveness of the systems were greatly increased with the introduction of the up-to-date GIS technologies and unification mechanisms of data actualisation that make it possible to represent current and predicted conditions of spatial organisation and transport infrastructure on a cartographic background. The system consists of the following components (Fig. 2): - Geographic information system (GIs); - Database management system (DBMS); - Knowledge base and output mechanism; - Functional core; - Report generator.

6 90 Management Information Systems Figure 2: Generalised structure of expert system and data flows. The integrated GIS allows downloading, uploading, viewing of vector and raster maps; creation and editing of transport network objects; search and visual selection of map objects; formation of queries to subject tables; visualisation of the resulting information with the help of the GIS tools. There is also a special GIs-overlay function in the system. It simplifies the decision-makmg process at the stage when the system outputs comparative characteristics of the existing transport network configuration and its transformed variant. The relational database is accessible through a SQL Server. It provides an effective access to various formats of presentation of the information objects. It includes the following units: - Database containing cartographic information with spatial geometrical objects (points, lines, polygons); - Help databases for users; - Database containing construction and exploitation costs and norms for calculation of investment programme effectiveness. DELPHI was chosen as the software for the system realisation. Ths choice was made because of the combination of high-productive data-exchange between applications and a SQL Server, high-speed calculations, easy adjustment and programme testing, availability of a wide range of components and possibility to support objects created with the help of other programme languages. The expert system requires a PC running Windows 95/NT. The following is the recommended configuration: - Pentium 1-11 processor; MBRAM; 200 MB min. hard disk (for the Server).

7 Management Information Systems 9 1 The time needed to obtain fiial results depends on the network size that is determined by the number of vertices. Analysis time (only general computation, and not the full cycle that includes financial aspects) (PII-400 processor) for 500 vertices is 4 min, for 1000 vertices - 25 min). We consider Geogracom 5W an expert system, because according to the classification suggested by Telnov Y. F., the author of the most popular book on intellectual expert systems in economy [7], we can classify Geogracom 5W, the current version, as a transforming expert system that is capable of generation of hypotheses, self-learning, etc. The most important moment in Geogracom 5W, and we already talked about it earlier, is determination of options. If there are not data or the data are not clear, the system will suggest data-analogues basing its decision on precedents. It is possible because the system always accumulates feedbacks and takes them into account in certain situations, basically we are talking about self-learning here. With time there will be a decision rules bank organised into five sections: should be - if..., should be - unconditionally, lnhibited - if..., inhlbited - unconditionally, neutral decisions. Accurateness of new game rules depends on how detailed and correct is the correlation between a feedback and a possible subject and situation type. All in all there are more than a thousand splitting types (from general to particular). Therefore, the tendency is to develop such expert systems as to be able to overcome the most difficult original obstacle: a subject area is summarised in a relatively small database, and the main resources of an expert system are devoted to solution of really intellectual issues in the form of heuristic models and algorithms. There is a traditional way - to describe a subject with the help of a detailed database. Obviously, expert systems will be different: specific features of a subject area will be fully presented through the reflection of the system, literally speaking, in the form of (secondary) feedbacks. It turns out that a set of feedbacks identifies a subject more accurately than any detailed description. Besides, it requires fewer computational resources. The system uses well-known models and algorithms (e.g. the modified algorithm of the shortest routes on a graph). But they are not the core of the system. The system does not only evaluate situations, but it defines situations itself and finds solutions on the strength of its own experience. 4 Transport Network Development Note that MTS describes the end state of a transport network, but it does not determine the means of its achevement. Therefore this section will focus on proposals that can bring the existing network to a desired level of development that meets certain target indices of strategic planning. More exactly, systematisation of the empirical data on transport networks of a number of countries prompted the conclusion that there exist certain spatial and attributive parameters that are characteristic of point and linear elements of any transport system. Besides, analysis of the algorithms for transport network transformation has revealed regularities in the network elements. Thus, network optimisation

8 92 Management Information Systems comes down to a set of flexible rules and proposals executed in a certain sequence. Accordingly the terminology of the graph theory is quite useful for description of spatial and attribute parameters of graph vertices (settlements, crossroads, etc.) and graph edges (sections of motorways, railways, waterways, airlines, etc.). The main parameter for a graph vertex is its rank, which is in turn dependent on administrative and economic functions of a locality identified as a vertex and its weight (population size or volume of freight dispatched). A vertex rank is defined by a number of edges coming out of the vertex in question, their normative codes, techcal speed (i.e. maximal speed of a vehicle running without stops or limits) of freight and passenger traffic along these edged, ITA. Each graph edge is given a special code that characterise the technical reliability of network sections. For example, the parameters for a motor road include the type of pavement and its condition, gradient, width of carriageway, dangerous sections, road loading, frequency of passenger communications. The latter parameter is conventional: passenger transportation is considered reliable if frequency of public transport along a section is not less than 3 times a day; if frequency is lower than reliability is also lower, and vice versa. Thus a prospective network for a given region is designed in the following way: Each vertex receive a vertex rank that is defined on the basis of the available data on the current population size or volumes of freight transportation, forecasts of their growth rates etc.; A real skeleton of a regional network -- the minimal spanning tree -- is found; Graph edges receive normative codes in accordance with the ranks and degree of spatial influence (i.e. administrative and economic functions) of the vertices they connect. For example, a vertex representing a big city (vertex rank 12) should have from 10 to 15 motorways of a high technical reliability to adequately fulfil its functions, whilst a village with vertex rank 1 will need only one road; Parallel or additional chains of network sections are added to the minimal spanning tree according to the rule of "Creation of Additional Ways" (introduction of toll roads can be considered); For railway edges: dangerous sections and speed limits are eliminated, new directions are added, railway tracks are transferred to electric traction and automatic blocking is set up; For waterway edges: dangerous sections are eliminated and dock characteristics are changed; For airway edges: classes of airports and runways are upgraded; The number of edges coming out of each vertex is checked. Additional edges are added according to the rules expressed by the "IF-THEN" condition. For example, IF an overpass has been built where there used to be a crossing of a road and a railway line at grade, THEN passenger communications can be initiated there; After intermediate calculations have been made for the re-organised transport network, the degree of disparity between similar groups of the

9 ~anagement Information Systems 93 initial and current MTS indices is determined. Priorities are defined then, and rules with changed factor thresholds are chosen. Development of alternative transport modes is envisaged in order to ensure ecological safety. Elimination of peripheral vertices (basically, a node with high transport discrimination of population is upgraded to the level where there is no transport discrimination) is performed to improve the transport provision parameters. Construction of capital bridges, overpasses, as well as elimination of so-called Steiner Bridges (topologically unreliable network sections) is performed to improve the safety parameters. 10. Indices for an ideal network are calculated. These will exceed the MTS indices of the initial network, since an ideal network implied the highest development level. In order to bring the current MTS indices to the standard an all-round algorithm is applied to re-code some of the already transformed edges and those not yet modified. The use of empirically obtained rules for determination of the priority order for network transformation proposals generated by the system will spare the user a time-consuming procedure of planning the order of the proposals for network transformation. The user is supplied with the table stating the priority of the proposals, which is defined with regard to GDP per capita and the realisation time of the transport network development programme. Not only a regional (county, province, district) development programme is formed with the help of the described algorithm, but also programmes for all of its territorial subdivisions are outlined. Ths approach makes it possible to define the interests of inferior administrative units and to compare them with those of the upper level units in order to strlke a balance between them. As a rule, proposals for development of regional and sub-regional networks are the same only for 20-50%. It seems impossible to satisfy the interests of all the sides involved. One of the possible solutions is to transfer the administrative functions to the vertices that meet the standards of the optimal network topology the best. The fmal result is four alternative programmes for network development in a region and in each of its subdivisions. Fig. 3. is a fragment of the expert system interface. It shows the generation of proposals. Proposals in agreement programmes and conclusions about drawbacks in regional transport development are purely virtual. The system itself generates text on the basis of the knowledge base, database (current state) and an MTS (as an expert s vision of the future). In the second window (fig. 3), for example, the system puts the section Hvoiny (N29) - Beregovovy (N25) in the first place, because a new road of 44,7 km (2 1,3 17 million roubles) between these two settlements will improve the district ITA by 3,18 hours, while the second section Yubileinoe (N232) - Poliakovsky (NQO) of 3 1 km if reconstructed (e.g. construct a wooden bridge) will improve the district ITA only by 0,06 hour.

10 94 Management Information Systems I1 - I, AGREEHEN1 PROGRAH Costs calculatad for prices sakan by the system NO Denominacion Change Character Length Invesc from this Increase section code activity (km) men5 50 danger reliabl. (Apices NNI cur. IY1Lt hours 1 LOCL CONSTR Hvoiny -- Beregovoi 2 LOCL RBCNSTR Yubrlcinoe -- Poliairovsky 3 LOCL RBCNSTR , Zarechnaya Slobodn -- Nikolrryevka 4 LOCL RBCNSTR Chalbachi -- Umlekan 5 LOCL RBCNSTR Rubliovka -- Crossroad 6 LOCL RBCNSTR Sornovy Bor -- Crossroad 7 LOCL RBCNSTR I I II 11:l I 5 Conclusions Figure 3: Fragment of Geogracom 5W expert system. The transition to a market economy in Russia caused some new issues to appear. These issues in their turn incited the creation of methods of their solution with the help of up-to-date technical equipment. It became obvious that under the new conditions certain social, economic, demographc, and ecological factors should be taken into consideration before approachmg the task of strategic planning of a transport network. The Minimal Transport Standard provides, as we believe, a most reliable combination of indices for working out a strategy of spatial development in the areas dependent on traffic functioning. Overall, strategic planning consists of the following stages 1. Analysis of the existing transport network and calculation of MTS for the current period; 2. Input of GDP values, GDP growth rates and calculation of MTS for the planning horizon; 3. Network development through execution of the rules that will result in the network transformation; 4. Generation of alternative programmes for regional development and on their basis elaboration of an agreement programme; 5. Forecast of financial provision of investment programmes and effectiveness of capital investments. 6. Geogracom 5W provides the most rational way to reconstruct a transport network. Two methodological principles are used in the system: 1. Local changes - global response validates the ability (non-linear) of the system to improve transport networks. Particularly it means that investments and effects may not coincide spatially and that even a minor change in a network can provoke larger improvements. It also means that it

11 Management Information Systems 95 is possible to unite interests of different regional levels (e.g. those of a country in general and its region through which a transit road is passing). 2. One goal - plenty means to achieve it implies that there is always a possibility to choose between various options and resources to the benefit of the end user. Such an approach necessitates significant revision of traditional outlooks on investment projects. Two issues are of crucial importance here: definition of prospective volumes of freight and passenger conveyance and determination of the most optimal proposals for network development with a view to manage forecasted volumes. In fact the attention is mostly paid to the former issue, because it is essential for determination of prospective traffic intensity with consideration of behavioural patterns, which in its turn sets the parameters of reconstructed or new transport objects and defines necessary investments. In other words, forecasted traffic flows condition a future network design and define investment volumes. Essence of the new approach is as follows. Parameters of traffic intensity are limitation devices. Simultaneously we assume that not only traffic flows make up a network, but also the latter generates traffic flows. Possible limitations inherent in the expert system are all connected with the size of a network. Suffice it to say that a fill calculation cycle for the five stages described above for a network of 1000 vertices and 1500 edges takes 1,5 hour (for a network 100x100 -only 2 minutes). References Bonsall, P. and Kirby, H. The Role of Expert System in Transport. Information Technology Applications in Transport: Leeds University, pp , Bougromenko, V. Transport in the spatial system. - Moscow, Russian Academy of Science, 212 p., 1987 [in Russian]. Bougromenko, V. Social justice and internationality relations: territorial aspects. Soviet Geography - vol. XXXII, N8, pp , Bougromenko, V. Economic Equivalent of Road Accessibility: case study of Russia. The Role of Transportation in Economic Development. Proceedings of IRF Asia-Pacific Regional Meeting - vol. 4, Taipei, pp , Fergusson, E. and Ross, C. PC Software for Urban Transportation Planning. Journal of American Planning Association - vol. 58, N2, pp. 238, McTrans, (1999).- Telnov Y. Intellectual information systems in economy. - Moscow, SINTI, 216 p., 1999 [in Russian].