FLOOD-CBA Kassel September 2014

Transcription

1 FLOOD-CBA Kassel September 2014 Oxford Edmund Penning-Rowsell

2 FLOOD-CBA Kassel September 2014 Oxford Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools

3 Oxford Euros 0.60 billion

4 Major floods: DEGGENDORF, on the Danube

5 Major floods: Elster, eastern Germany, 2010

6 Passau, Bavaria, June 2013 Cost: benefit analysis (CBA, or BCA) is designed to make you THINK!

7 Cost: benefit analysis (CBA, or BCA) is designed to make you THINK! Passau, Bavaria, June 2013

8 Is protection the best use of our money? What are the alternative approaches. Who is paying, anyway?

9 Grimma, 2013 Who is suffering? What if we cannot pay? What can be done at really low cost?

10 Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools

11 Different projects: different techniques

12 Techniques, data and tools for CBA 1. in Legislative the UK over-ride today 2. When data on market prices The Actors is available for all The significant Policies costs and and Guidance benefits 3. When Techniques this data is not all Data available Tools 1. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 2. Benefit-Cost Analysis 3. Multi-Criteria Analysis

13 The Middlesex FHRC* Manuals: from 1977 to 2010/ Centre founded Blue Manual Direct damages Red Manual Indirect losses FLAIR Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools Yellow Manual Coastal added * Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University 2005 Multi- Coloured Manual and Handbook 2010 All Update topics New Manual Nov. 11 th 2013 from Routledge 2013

14 The Middlesex FHRC* Manuals: from 1977 to 2010/2013 The 2013 Manual 2005 Includes: Multi- New methods for Coloured estimating nonresidential property (NRP) Blue Red Yellow Manual and FLAIR damages Manual Manual Manual Handbook 2013 Updated residential depth/damage Techniques, data curves, including revised clean-up and drying cost 2005 plus 2010 new data for: and tools for CBA saltwater flooding and wave damage Centre Direct Indirect Coastal Vehicle damages All and Update evacuation founded damages losses added costs topics in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Property-level protection measures and flood-warning information New methods for estimating direct and indirect flood losses to schools, hospitals, utilities and transportation networks. Revised data for agricultural losses * Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University Data Tools and recreational benefits buildings and schools

15 New for 2014: MCM-Online

16 The impacts of floods, and flood damage data Direct Tangible Damage to building and contents Measurement Intangible Loss of an archaeological site Form of loss Indirect Loss of industrial production/ retail trade Inconvenience of post-flood recovery

17 Form of loss Direct Indirect Measurement Tangible Intangible Damage to Loss of an building and archaeological contents site Loss of industrial production/ retail trade Inconvenience of post-flood recovery Cost: benefit analysis (CBA, or BCA): THINK - what is the damage?? Passau, Bavaria

18 Metres Metres Metres Metres Depth Metres Method application, for high street shop stock component Figure 3: Depth damage curves for high street shops Sub-category 211 (High Street Shop) Scenario: River flood, no warning and duration less than 12 hours Depth Damage Curve ,000 1,250 1,500 High Band Low Band Indicative Damage /m2 Building structure, fabric and services Moveable equipment Indicative value 739 per m2 Indicative value 63 per m % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100 % High Band Low Band Indicative % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100 % High Band Low Band Indicative Percent Percent Fixture and fittings Stock Indicative value 340 per m2 Indicative value 372 per m % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100 % High Band Low Band Indicative % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100 % High Band Low Band Indicative Percent Percent

19 Depth Metres Method application, for high street shop: depth/damage relationship Depth Damage Curve ,000 1,250 1,500 High Band Low Band Indicative Damage /m2

20 Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools

21 Other tools developed in England. Weighted Annual Average Damage values, (WAAD) for generalised assessments Appraisal Summary Tables (ASTs), to ensure comprehensive and systematic preparation of BCAs Multi-criteria scoring and weighting systems for intangibles Standard spreadsheets developed by the Environment Agency and Defra Environmental value averages A requirement for incremental benefitcost analysis

22 Decision criteria (England)

23 Decision criteria (England)

24 Transfer value data per hectare per year Step-by-step guidance

25 Standard spreadsheets Client/Authority 0 Damage Cost Calculation Sheet - Do Nothing (Linear) Sheet Nr. Project name Option: 0 Do-nothing Project reference - Base date for estimates (year Summary 0) Jan-1900 Scaling factor (e.g. m, k, ) Annual Prepared (date) 00/01/1900 Initial discount rate Average 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Printed 18/05/2013 < Damage > PV breach/failure Sheet Nr. Prepared by 0 Client/Authority Year Ave Annual Damage Checked by 0 0 Breach pb (overtopping) 0.00 /yr Checked date 0 Project name Option: PV Total Damage - (calculated below) 0 Project reference - Prob that PV damage due breach/failure: to: Year Discount Prob of a Other damages PV Base date for estimates (year 0) 0 factor breach/ failure First year occurs of damage: in year has not occurred breach or failure 0Prepared over- (date) topping Damages 1 00/01/1900 Damages 2 Damages 3 total damage Scaling factor (e.g. m, k, ) Last year of period: 99Printed 18/05/2013 Discount rate 3.5% PV factor for mid-year 0: Prepared by Checked by Applicable year (if time varying) Checked date Average waiting time (yrs) between events/frequency per year Total PV Infinity Damage category Damage Residential property Ind/commercial (direct) Ind/comm (indirect) Traffic related Emergency services Other Total damage Area (damagexfrequency) Total area, as above PV Factor, as above Present value (assuming no change in damage or event frequency) Notes Area calculations assume drop to zero at maximum frequency Default value for the highest possible damage assumes continuation of gradient for last two points, an alternative value can be entered, if appropriate. One form should be completed for each option, including 'without project', and for each representative year if profile changes during scheme life (e.g. sea-level rise) Residential property, Industrial / commercial (direct), and Other damages are itemised in Asset AAD sheet and automatically linked to this sheet

26 What is new in 2013/14?

27 Partnership Funding - 1 What is new in 2013/14 The change in 2012/13 was to a system of local/national cost-sharing. The significance of this change is that it introduced a far greater and critical element of "localism" into what previously was a highly centralised arrangement. The block grant system remains, but at a somewhat reduced level, but projects in many cases can only proceed if the national contribution is complemented by locally derived resources.

28 Partnership Funding - 2 What is new in 2013/14 The new Partnership Funding arrangement operates on a formula basis to determine the Flood Defence Grant in Aid (FDGiA) how the block grant (provided by Defra) is to be allocated, scheme-by-scheme: FDGiA= H + B + E Where : H - is the value of qualifying Household benefits for that scheme, times the payment rate B - is the value of Other Whole-life Benefits for that scheme, times their payment rate E - is the number of Environmental Outcomes for that scheme, times their payment rates.

29 Windsor castle Three proposed by-pass channels... London Total cost: 306m; Euros 380m FDGiA + local levy = 166m; Euros 207m Funding gap = 140m; Euros 173m (46%) Design standard: 1: 25 to 40 years?

30 Depth of flood water (m) Metres Summary:- Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100 Percent % High Band Low Band Indicative Hazard zone 'Safe' zone Velocity (m/sec)

31 Summary:- Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools Client/Authority 0 Damage Cost Calculati on Sheet - Do Nothing (Linear) Project name Option: 0 Do-nothing Project reference - Base date for estimates (year 0) Jan-1900 Scaling factor (e.g. m, k, ) Sheet Nr. Prepared (date) 00/01/1900 Initial discount rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Printed 18/05/2013 < > Year Ave Annual Damage PV breach/failure Prepared by 0 Checked by 0 Breach pb (overtopping) 0.00/yr Checked date 0 Year Discoun Prob of t a factor breach/ failure occurs in year Prob that breach/failur e: has not occurred PV Total Damage - (calculated below) breach or failure PV damage due to: Other damages PV overtopping a 3 D Damages 2 Damages total damage m a g e s

32 Summary:- Techniques, data and tools for CBA in the UK today The Actors The Policies and Guidance Techniques Data Tools + funding rules Client/Authority 0 Damage Cost Calculati on Sheet - Do Nothing (Linear) Sheet Nr. Project name Option: Do-nothing 0 FDGiA= Project reference H - + B + E Base date for estimates (year 0) Jan-1900 Scaling factor (e.g. m, k, Prepared ) (date) 00/01/1900 Initial discount rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Printed 18/05/2013 < > Year Ave Annual Damage PV breach/failure Prepared by 0 Checked by 0 Breach pb (overtopping) 0.00/yr Checked date 0 Year Discoun Prob of t a factor breach/ failure occurs in year Prob that breach/failur e: has not occurred PV Total Damage - (calculated below) breach or failure PV damage due to: Other damages PV overtopping a 3 D Damages 2 Damages total damage m a g e s

33 Passau, Bavaria, June 2013 Cost: benefit analysis (CBA, or BCA) is designed to make you THINK, but it s not easy!

34 The Eder valley dam We must not forget On the night of 16/17 May 1943 three aircraft out of 18 succeeded in bombing the dam. The dam wall burst and 200 million cubic meters of water poured in a huge tidal wave into the valley. The deadly torrent measured over 9 meters in height and destroyed everything through the Eder valley up to Kassel. It flooded five settlements, and in the raging waters 1,200 people lost their lives, including more than 800 residents of the smalltown Neheim-Hüsten and hundreds of foreign workers. The end