NEEDED: EQUITY IN REGIONAL PLANNING & FUNDING ALLOCATION

Transcription

1 NEEDED: EQUITY IN REGIONAL PLANNING & FUNDING ALLOCATION Metro Vancouver Should Act To End Decades of Destructive Funding- Favoritism For North of Fraser Public-Transit /Mega-Projects!!

2 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Project Details: 3.4 Miles-long Route: From Broadway & Clarke to Broadway & Arbutus An extension of existing (Bombardier) Millennium Line SkyTrain line; Not a stand-alone (separate) SkyTrain line- IE not like the existing stand alone (Hyundai) Canada Line SkyTrain Costs to design and build: Conservatively estimated at $2.9 Billion Estimated completion date: 2025

3 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Costs for design & construction of the remaining 5-miles westward from Broadway/Arbutus to UBC s Point Grey Campus: $5.5 Billion Total Broadway Subway costs: at least $8.4 Billion Costs to design/build an 8.5 mile-long aboveground (elevated) SkyTrain line along Broadway corridor to UBC: only $2.8 Billion

4 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Genesis of BS project, Part 1: 2011 s Metro Vancouver 2040 Report Report indicates need for unspecified rapid-transit from Broadway & Commercial area to mid- Broadway Indicates to-be-built line could be an extension of existing rapid-transit at Broadway & Commercial area or could be connected to existing Broadway & Commercial rapid-transit (by inference- through stations walkways to/from each other) Does not indicate that to-be-built line should go all the way to UBC

5 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Genesis of BS project, Part 2: Translink s 2014 Ten-Year Investments Plan report Unilaterally calls for: rapid transit between Commercial Drive & UBC ; rail to UBC s Point Grey campus ; Building an extension to the existing Millennium Line, (instead of building a stand alone (separate) SkyTrain line); constructing and operating the (Millennium Line) extension as a tunnelled alignment along Broadway

6 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Genesis of BS project, Part 3: Translink s 2014 decisions to build a Broadway Subway were made 4-years before Translink & BC govt produce & publicly release their (March-2018) Strategic Alternatives to a subway & Business Case for a subway reports;

7 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Genesis of BS project, Part 4: Translink and BC Govt s (March-2018) Strategic Alternatives to a subway & Business Case for a subway reports are both: Substantially Incomplete & contain inaccurate assumptions IE: Building of above-ground SkyTrain line would result in loss of only 1 vehicle lane, not 2 lanes lost; Biased in favour of a subway and against an aboveground SkyTrain line;

8 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Genesis of BS project, Part 5: Translink/BC Govt s (March-2018) Business Case for the Broadway Subway indicates that ZERO public consultations have ever occurred re potentially building an aboveground (elevated) SkyTrain line along Broadway corridor to UBC- instead of building a subway;

9 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Strategic Alternatives & Business Case reports should have evaluated & considered costs/ benefits of building an above-ground SkyTrain line that is: Fully above-ground for whole route, IE: Starting from Commercial & Broadway (not starting from Commercial & Clarke which would necessitate building hugely costly tunnels & underground station); Not an extension to the Millennium Line; Delivered & Operated (for 30+ years) through a Public Private Partnership (P3)

10 Broadway Subway Project: The mega-project that ate Translink Actions Requested: Write to (and or recommend MV Board writes to) BC Govt and Translink requesting that The project is put on hold; Omissions, inaccuracies and biases in the March-2018 Strategic Alternatives & Business Case reports are corrected; Project is expeditiously re-evaluated & reconsidered as a fully above-ground, 8.5 mile-long stand-alone SkyTrain line from Broadway & Commercial to/from UBC s Point Grey Campus Consideration is given to potentially delivering and operating the project as a Public Private Partnership - similar to the (Hyundai) Canada Line SkyTrain

11 Regional Planning Heather McNell DIRECTOR OF REGIONAL PLANNING AND ELECTORAL AREA SERVICES January 11,2019

12 Outline Committee Terms of Reference The Role of Regional Planning 2019 Workplan Priorities How the Region is Growing Metro

13 Committee Terms of Reference Purpose The Regional Planning Committee is the standing committee that provides advice and recommendations to the Board on policies, bylaws, plans, programs, budgets and issues related to: Metro 2040 Agriculture Shaping Growth Job Lands Complete Communities 3

14 Regional Planning Provide a strategic, long-range, cross-boundary, interdisciplinary lens Responsible for developing, implementing and stewarding Metro 2040, the regional growth strategy Core Services Data and monitoring Policy research Convene on planning issues of regional interest Advocacy Provide a planning resource Leadership and Innovation 4

15 Regional Planning Portfolios and Reporting Growth Management and Transportation Metro 2040 Shaping Growth (UCB, Urban Centres and Corridors) Complete Communities (Housing, Transportation, Health, Services) Job Lands (Industrial, Office and Employment) Electoral Area and Environment Agriculture (Land and Food Systems) Environment (Ecological Health and Connectivity Electoral Area A Planning Analytics Data and Projections Regional Planning Committee (L) Liquid Waste (I) Housing (I) Climate Action Committee (L) Regional Parks (I) Electoral Area Committee (L) Service to all functions

16 2019 Budget and Workplan Priorities 2019 Budget for Regional Planning = $3.53 million Long Range Growth Scenarios A number of Metro 2040 Policy Reviews Transit Oriented Affordable Housing Study Food Flow Agri-Food Distribution Study Equity in Regional Planning Growth Modelling and Projections 30 Year Financial Plan 6

17 2019 Workplan Priorities 7

18 Setting the Context 8

19 A Growing Region ,570,000 3,400, ,000 1,300,000 1,355,000 1,700,000

20 Growth in the region is not new Census Population +150,000 (30,000/ year) Dwellings +70,000 (14,000 / year) Average past 30 years Population 36,000 per year Dwellings 14,300 per year 10

21 Population: Components of Growth

22 Legislative Mandate Local Government Act Part 13 Regional Growth Strategies The legislation provides a framework for interactive planning that relies on a cooperative process, rather than hierarchy. It ensures that municipalities and regional districts work to prepare a regional growth strategy as equal partners. 12

23 Purpose of a Regional Growth Strategy A strategic plan that shapes long-term planning for regional districts and municipal OCPs. Designed to promote human settlement that is: socially, economically & environmentally sustainable makes efficient use of utilities, land & other resources supports and enhances regional sustainability & resilience

24 A Strong History of Regional Planning

25 Regional Planning Principles Put growth in the right places Support the creation of complete and connected communities Protect important lands Support better mobility choices, a prosperous economy, and the efficient provision of urban infrastructure

26 Regional Growth Strategy Metro 2040 Goal 1 Goal 2 Create a Compact Urban Area Support a Sustainable Economy Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5 Protect the Environment and Respond to Climate Change Develop Complete Communities Support Sustainable Transportation Choices

27 Metro 2040 Implementation Tools Urban Containment Boundary Urban Centres and FTDAs Parcel Based Land Use Designations Limit regional sewer services to contain growth and support cost effectiveness Targets for containing and structuring growth Projections (population, housing, employment) Policy Research Regional Context Statements Flexibility Minor Amendment Process Monitoring Program

28 Urban Containment Boundary 18

29 Targets: Contain Growth UCB Target to % of growth within the UCB Performance %

30 Urban Centres 20

31 Targets: Structure Growth Urban Centres Target to % of housing and 50% of employment growth to Urban Centres Performance %

32 Frequent Transit Development Areas 22

33 Corridors - Frequent Transit Network 23

34 Targets: Structure Growth FTDAs / FTN Target to % of housing growth along the Frequent Transit Network Performance % Based on current FTN 24

35 Structure Growth: Remaining Urban Areas Anticipated to % Performance % - 20% 6,000 hectares Includes potential FTN corridors 25

36 Regional Land Use Designations General Urban Industrial Mixed Employment Rural Agricultural Con / Rec 26

37 Protect Lands: Conservation & Recreation 47% of the regional land base (132,670 ha) 95+% publicly owned

38 Sensitive Ecosystem Inventory Con / Rec designation and SEI are different SEI measures what is important 28

39 Supporting Information Between 2011 and 2016, lost 1,645 ha of sensitive ecosystems Most within the urban core Highest losses for mature forest, young forest, old field, wetland, and riparian ecosystems Work is ongoing to understand the implications of that loss and policy options 29

40 Protect Lands - Agricultural 55,210 ha = 20% of the regional land base 2016 ALUI complete; 50% farmed; 25% available for farming; 25% not available

41 Supporting Information Policies are holding Pressures remain: Conversion, non-agricultural uses, speculation, small lots and fragmentation, access to land Continue to work closely with ALC, Ministry, AAC Homeplate regulation 31

42 Protect Lands: Industrial &Mixed Employment Critical to supporting the regional economy both from a port and regionally serving perspective. Nearly ¼ of the region s job are located on these lands.

43 Supporting Information Challenges include: constrained land based, conversion, nonindustrial uses, complex governance Vacancy rate at 1.6% 2 nd lowest availability in North America Lease rates now averaging $10.93/sq ft Regional Industrial Lands Strategy under development 33

44 Extension of Regional Sewerage Services 34

45 Projections Data as a Service Population, Dwelling Unit and Employment Projections for Metro Vancouver Subregions and Municipalities Role in preparing Metro 2040 requires coordination, establishment and monitoring of population, housing, employment and land use projections 35

46 Policy Research 36

47 Policy Actions 5 goals 14 Strategies 95 Metro Vancouver and municipal actions 37

48 Regional Context Statements Regional Context Statement 38

49 Amendments to Metro 2040 Type 1 Type 2 (Minor) Type 3 (Minor) Voting Threshold Acceptance by all affected local governments and Board 2/3 weighted Board vote + regional public hearing 50% + 1 Board vote and no regional public hearing Example Change goals or strategies Change the UCB; non-urban to urban land use designations Change Urban land use designation 39

50 Monitoring Progress Requirement to report out annually on progress towards the goals of Metro Key Summary Measures in Section G Also track Strategy Performance Measures, Context Measures and Participation Measures 40

51 Monitoring Progress 41

52 Putting it all together 42

53 Thank you

54 REFERENCE SLIDES

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59 Performance Monitoring: Goal 1 Regional Land Use Designations and Overlays Total and cumulative change in ha of land in each regional land use designation Total and cumulative change in ha of land in the UCB Total and cumulative change in the # of Urban Centres and FTDAs Urban Containment Percentage of regional dwelling unit growth in the UCB Growth in Priority Areas Percent of regional welling unit growth located in Urban Centres and FTDAs 49

60 Performance Monitoring: Goal 2 Employment in Priority Areas Percent of regional employment in Urban Centres and FTDAs Employment Accessibility Average number of kilometres travelled for commute region-wide Average number of minutes travelled for commute region-wide Industrial and Mixed Employment Areas Percent of land designated Industrial and Mixed Employment that is developed and vacant Agricultural Areas Percent of land designated as Agricultural that is actively farmed 50

61 Performance Monitoring: Goal 3 Ecosystem Health Hectares of land inventoried as a Sensitive or Modified Ecosystem Percent of inventoried Sensitive or Modified Ecosystems rated high quality Climate Change Mitigation Tonnes and percent of regional greenhouse gas emissions produced by building and on-road transportation sources. Climate Change Preparedness Climate change adaptation planning efforts (proxy measure) 51

62 Performance Monitoring: Goal 4 Housing Affordability Percent of median household income spent on average housing + transportation cost Housing Diversity Share of estimated regional rental housing demand achieved in new supply Complete Communities Walkability 52

63 Performance Monitoring: Goal 5 Travel Mode Choice Percent of total trips that are private vehicle based Percent of residents within walking distance of the Frequent Transit Network Road and Vehicle Safety Annual per capita vehicle killometres travelled 53

64 Metro Vancouver Growth Projections METHODS OVERVIEW Terry Hoff SENIOR REGIONAL PLANNER Regional Planning Committee January 2019

65 Presentation Outline Metro Vancouver growth planning - context / applications Growth projections method overview

66 Regional Growth Strategy Municipal Collaboration Land Use and Development

67 Regional and Municipal Collaboration Metro 2040 and municipal Regional Context Statements Assess and compare planned development capacity, policies and development activity Review and reconcile regional and municipal growth assumptions and projections Collaborate in preparing consistent Metro Vancouver and municipal growth projections 4

68 Capilano Seymour Regional Water Services Coquitlam

69 Regional Liquid Waste Services Lions Gate Iona Northwest Langley Annacis Lulu

70 TransLink - Regional Transportation Model

71 Regional Land Capacity Metro 2040 Land Use Designations Established Metro 2040 land use designations assumed static Assume land base, market and politics will accommodate projected development densities

72 Metro 2040 Regional Growth Concept Regional Targets for Percentage of Growth Residential Employment Urban Centres 40% 50% Transit Corridors 28% 27% General Urban 31% Other 1% 24%

73 Urban Centres

74 Frequent Transit Corridor Network

75 General Urban Densification

76 Methods Overview Benchmarks No absolutes only estimates given various data sources Scenario Projections Approach Components, trends, drivers, assumptions Modeling Techniques Structure to organize and calculate information 13

77 2016 Benchmark Population Benchmark - Census count plus undercount estimate Metro Vancouver undercount 4.31% in 2016 Non-permanent residents Study and Work Permits, Refugees Estimate132,000 in % included in Census Census 2016 With UC/IR Metro Vancouver 2,459,100 2,571,000 Anmore 2,210 2,320 Belcarra Burnaby 232, ,000 Coquitlam 139, ,300 Delta 102, ,900 Langley City 25,900 27,000 Langley Township 117, ,500 Lions Bay 1,330 1,340 Maple Ridge 82,300 85,600 New Westminster 71,000 74,500 North Vancouver City 53,500 55,900 North Vancouver District 87,900 91,000 Pitt Meadows 18,600 19,500 Port Coquitlam 58,600 61,200 Port Moody 33,600 34,900 Richmond 198, ,500 Surrey 518, ,100 Tsawwassen First Nation Vancouver 633, ,400 West Vancouver 42,500 43,600 White Rock 20,000 20,400 EA (UBC /UEL) 16,100 17,100 Capilano /Squamish (DWV) 2,930 3,080 Fraser Valley Regional District 282, ,800 (Abbotsford /Mission CMA, Chilliwack CA)

78 Historic Components of Population Growth

79 Natural Increase Births Fertility rates / trends and projections by population of women of child bearing age for each municipality Trends , projected toward stable rate Deaths Survival rates / trends by single year of age from Stats Can lifetables by province Trends , projected toward marginal increases in longevity throughout projections Survival Rate Fertility Rates: Births / 1,000 Women Aged Metro Vancouver Survival Rates Age Age

80 Immigration - Municipal Distribution Settlement Distribution Share of Metro Vancouver s Annual Immigrants

81 Domestic Migration Inter-Provincial Net annual regional inflow +500 Relatively stable through the projection horizons 0.1% of total base pop -2.4% 2.5% -1.1% -2.9% 1.8% Intra-Provincial Net annual regional outflow - 5,300 Increasing through the projection horizons FVRD 37% of net MV outflow

82 Inter-Municipal Migration Trends establish baseline reference Assume this general pattern continues through the projection horizons Out to Other Municipalities Vancouver In From Other Municipalities Average mobility about 1.7% of population per year

83 Projected Components of Population Growth 50,000 40,000 Immigration (NPR) 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Natural Increase Births Net Growth Inter-Provincial Migration Intra-Provincial Migration -30,000 Deaths -40,000-50,000

84 Population Projection - Baseline Scenario Population 2,570,000 3,600,000 5,000,000

85 Dwelling Unit Projections Household formation / housing demand Population and household formation Maintainer rates, average household size Households and dwelling structure types: Single detached dwelling on fee simple lot Multiple-attached (townhouses, xplexs, laneway, coach, suites, etc) Apartments

86 Metro Vancouver Housing Trends Total Dwelling Units

87 Baseline Dwelling Unit Projection , ,400 1,007,200 1,024,000 1,042,000 1,060,000 1,078,000 1,096,000 1,114,000 1,130,800 1,146,400 1,163,200 1,178,800 1,194,400 1,208,800 1,224,400 1,238,800 1,253,200 1,267,600 1,280,800 1,295,200 1,308,400 1,321,600 1,333,600 1,346,800 1,358,800 1,370,800 1,381,600 1,393,600 1,404,400 1,415,200 1,426,000 1,438,000 1,448,800 1,459, , ,000 1,002,000 1,016,000 1,031,000 1,046,000 1,061,000 1,076,000 1,091,000 1,105,000 1,118,000 1,132,000 1,145,000 1,158,000 1,170,000 1,183,000 1,195,000 1,207,000 1,219,000 1,230,000 1,242,000 1,253,000 1,264,000 1,274,000 1,285,000 1,295,000 1,305,000 1,314,000 1,324,000 1,333,000 1,342,000 1,351,000 1,361,000 1,370,000 1,379, , , ,800 1,008,000 1,020,000 1,032,000 1,044,000 1,056,000 1,068,000 1,079,200 1,089,600 1,100,800 1,111,200 1,121,600 1,131,200 1,141,600 1,151,200 1,160,800 1,170,400 1,179,200 1,188,800 1,197,600 1,206,400 1,214,400 1,223,200 1,231,200 1,239,200 1,246,400 1,254,400 1,261,600 1,268,800 1,276,000 1,284,000 1,291,200 1,298, , ,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600, Dwellings 975,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

88 Projected Housing Stock Components 800,000 54% 700,000 Apartment 600,000 48% 500, ,000 42% 32% Multi Attached 35% 300, ,000 29% 29% 20% Single Detached 11% 100,000 -

89 Residential Density Baseline Scenario Vancouver New Westminster North Van City White Rock Burnaby Metro Vancouver s net housing unit density within the designated urban areas Richmond Port Moody Port Coquitlam Metro Total Pitt Meadows Langley City units per hectare units per hectare Coquitlam Delta North Van Dist Surrey Langley Dist Maple Ridge West Vancouver Lions Bay Units per hectare 26

90 Employment Projections Baseline Scenario Assume regional economy will maintain relatively consistent sectoral composition and productivity Assume current employment ratios will be moderately affected by technology

91 Employment Trends by Industry Sector Total 2001 Total 2006 Total 2011 Total ,050,000 1,160,000 1,209,000* 1,340,000

92 Employment Baseline Scenario Projection Trending lower ratio - employment to population Technology applications, aging population Labour force 65+ increases from 4% in 2016 to 11% in ,335,000 1,580,000 1,780,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,355,400 1,396,200 1,417,800 1,438,200 1,459,800 1,480,200 1,500,600 1,519,800 1,539,000 1,558,200 1,576,200 1,593,000 1,611,000 1,627,800 1,643,400 1,657,800 1,673,400 1,687,800 1,701,000 1,714,200 1,727,400 1,739,400 1,751,400 1,763,400 1,775,400 1,785,000 1,795,800 1,806,600 1,816,200 1,825,800 1,835,400 1,845,000 1,854,600 1,352,000 1,369,000 1,386,000 1,404,000 1,421,000 1,439,000 1,456,000 1,473,000 1,489,000 1,505,000 1,521,000 1,536,000 1,550,000 1,565,000 1,579,000 1,592,000 1,604,000 1,617,000 1,629,000 1,640,000 1,651,000 1,662,000 1,672,000 1,682,000 1,692,000 1,702,000 1,710,000 1,719,000 1,728,000 1,736,000 1,744,000 1,752,000 1,760,000 1,768,000 1,335,000 1,348,600 1,362,200 1,375,800 1,390,200 1,403,800 1,418,200 1,431,800 1,445,400 1,458,200 1,471,000 1,483,800 1,495,800 1,507,000 1,519,000 1,530,200 1,540,600 1,550,200 1,560,600 1,570,200 1,579,000 1,587,800 1,596,600 1,604,600 1,612,600 1,620,600 1,628,600 1,635,000 1,642,200 1,649,400 1,655,800 1,662,200 1,668,600 1,675,000 1,681,400 1,335,000 No-fixed location / home 20%+ Part-time / temporary 45%+ Seniors in the Labour Force 4%+

93 Long Range Growth Scenario Process Workshop 1 Baseline Municipal Visits Workshop 2 Disruptors Scenario Development Workshop 3 Test Scenarios Completion Apr Summer 2018 Oct Winter 18/19 Feb Apr

94 Thank you