Risk factors, risk types and the probability of unwanted accidents in the Arctic

Transcription

1 Risk factors, risk types and the probability of unwanted accidents in the Arctic Nataliya A Marchenko, The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway 1

2 Navigation Safety and Risk Assessment Challenges in the High North Nataliya A Marchenko, The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway Odd J Borch and Natalia Andreassen The University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway; Svetlana Kuznetsova Northern (Arctic) Federal University, Arkhangelsk, Russia Valur Ingimundarson The University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland Uffe Jakobsen The University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 2

3 MARPART project Activity and probability of incidents Consequences of different accidents Analyses of risk in different sea areas. Risk Matrix Work packages WP 1) Future maritime activity level and risk patterns in the High North WP 2) Institutional framework, governance, resources and institutional strategies within different sea regions WP 3) Organizations and operational management structures linking cooperating institutions in joint maritime operations N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 3

4 Research area and partners Partners: Advisory Board gives the tasks and makes quality control The University of Nordland University of Tromsø UNIS-The University Center of Svalbard The University of Greenland The University of Iceland The Northern (Arctic) Federal University. Arkhangelsk, Russia MSTU -The Murmansk State Technical University, Russia The Norwegian Police University College The Norwegian Defence University College 4

5 MARPART PUBLICATION

6 MARPART PUBLICATION Proceedings of the Twenty-sixth (2016) International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference Rhodes, Greece, June 26-July 1, 2016 Copyright 2016 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE) ISBN ; ISSN Maritime Safety in The High North Risk and Preparedness Nataliya A. Marchenko 1, Odd J. Borch 2, Sergey V. Markov 3, Natalia Andreassen 2 1 Department of Arctic Technology, the University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway 2 Bodø Graduate School of Business, University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway 3 Institute of Complex Safety, Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, Arkhangelsk, Russiax ABSTRACT Increasing human activity in the Arctic creates great concern about possible accidents and their consequences for life and nature. The sufficient level of preparedness for emergency cases should be defined and secured. On the basis of previous assessment of activity level and risk matrix and analysis of existing search and rescue resources, the estimation of preparedness system has been done. Three regions (mainland Norway, Svalbard area and Russian part of the Barents Sea) are under consideration and comparison. The international collaboration for safety on the sea is very important in the border area. KEY WORDS: maritime; safety; risk assessment; preparedness; Arctic; navigation; accident; INTRODUCTION The modern development of the Arctic creates a need for understanding of the risk factors, risk mitigating tools, and adequate rescue system capacities in the different area. Safe maritime operations in the High North depend on the risk assessment, preparations and preparedness of the companies involved as well as the government. Activities in the Arctic are challenged by limited infrastructure, long distances and harsh weather conditions. The presented work is the part of MarPART (Maritime preparedness and International Collaboration in the High North) project, where the researchers are responsible for safety organizations of all the countries of Atlantic Sector of the Arctic on the base of activity and risk estimation should find the way of cross-institutional and cross-country partnership (Nord Universitet, 2016). That is especially important on High North with rarepopulation and limited rescueresources. Activity and probability of accidents differ in various parts of the Arctic, due to geographical, economic and historicalreasons. In this study, we focus in particular on 3 regions: Norwegian areas around Svalbard, along the coast of mainland Norway and on West- Russian Arctic in the Barents Sea up to Novaya Zemlya (Fig.1). This sector creates the gateway to the Arctic and in the case of global warming the development here, especially on Svalbard, will serve as a model for other regions of the Arctic. The situation which we have now on Svalbard (tourist vessel with 3000 passengers on 80 o N, for example) can be repeated on Greenland, North of Canada or Franz Josef Land or Novaya Zemlya with characteristic problems. That s why our study canhaveglobal perspective and interest. Figure 1. Three regions under consideration. Base map is Norwegian rescue service's areaof responsibility (red lines) (BarentsWatch, 2013). Key ports andrescuecentersare shown The paper aims to analyze the rescue system resource capacities. It is necessary to discuss the preparedness system considering the volatile environment, activity levels and risk assessments done for these three 6

7 Presentation and paper on TransNAV 2017 conference Created on the base of Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement Map (Arctic Council 2011). REGIONS OF THE ATLANTIC ARCTIC and co-authors 1-Greenland - Uffe Jakobsen The University of Copenhagen, Denmark 2-Iceland - Valur Ingimundarson The University of Iceland, Reykjavik, 3-Svalbard - Nataliya A Marchenko, The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway 4-Coastal Norway - Odd J Borch and Natalia Andreassen The University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway; 5-Russian sector of the Barents Sea - Svetlana Kuznetsova Northern (Arctic) Federal University, Arkhangelsk, Russia 7

8 TRANSNAV conference TransNAV family TransNAV journal N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 8

9 OUR TransNAV papers Proceedings: Navigation Safety and Risk Assessment Challenges in the High North Journal: High-risk emergencies in the Arctic seas: assessment and response capacities N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 9

10 MARITIME ACTIVITY PATTERN Type of vessels coming to Arctic Ports. Created on the base of (Norwegian Coastal Administration 2017) Number of port calls dynamics 10

11 MARITIME ACTIVITY PATTERN Types of crossing conventional lines vessels (data from the Arctic Havbase (Norwegian Coastal Administration 2017). Red numbers line number (see fig. 4). Blue numbers- total numbers of passengers in one direction. Number of passengers crossing conventional lines (data from (Norwegian Coastal Administration 2017) 11

12 RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY. 2 APPROACHES AND EXAMPLES The risk is then the product of the probability that an accident happens multiplied by the severity of that harm. In practice, the risk level is usually given a coarse-grained categorization, because neither the probability nor the harm severity can be estimated with accuracy and precision. Some accident types such as violent action and terror have not yet happened, but may occur also in this region. LOCAL, SPECIFIED REGIONAL, UNIFIED 12

13 Canadian Arctic Shipping Risk Assessment System (CASRAS) Route navigability using the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) for a PC6 vessel, according to the observed ice conditions on March 14, Yellow and orange zone require limiting speed and escorting. Ivana Kubat, Lawrence Charlebois, Richard Burcher, Philippe Lamontagne, David Watson National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada) Paper -133.Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions June 11-16, 2017, Busan, Korea N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 13

14 Environmental Risk connected to potencial oil polution from shiptraffic i Sea areas around Svalbard and Jan Mayen Miljørisiko knyttet til potensiell akutt oljeforurensning fra skipstrafikk i havområdene omkring Svalbard og Jan Mayen Ice concentration more than 70% DNV GL Norwegian coast Administration,

15 REGIONAL UNIFIED Risk analyses. Possible variation of accidents, depending of ship type and events Tourist/Crui se ship Cargo/tanker/ petroleum rigs/floaters Fishing Grounding T-G C-G F-G Damage due to collision T-C C-C F-C (sea ice and other) Fire T-F C-F F-F Violence/terror T-V C-V F-V Other reasons T-O C-O F-O Data/ materials used: Risk assessments by DNV GL (Paaske et al., 2014) (DNV GL, 2014c, DNV GL, 2014a); the SADA report by Steipen et al. (Stepien et al., 2014); the AMSA report (Arctic Council, 2009); the National Risk Analysis by DSB (Norwegian Directorate for civil Protection (DSB), 2013) incidents statistics 2013 of Norwegian Maritime Authority ( For the Svalbard area, an overview of Longyearbyen port current and planned activities (Multiconsult, 2014) risk analysis performed by Governor of Svalbard on 2013 (Sysselmannen på Svalbard, 2013) N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 15

16 Ship traffic pattern cargo (refrigerator green; general blue), tankers (red) and supply vessels (orange) fishing (yellow), passenger ship (bright blue) and the others (white) N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 16

17 Activity level factors Economic Politic Nature Unprofitable, New technology? Warm, open N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 17

18 Search and Rescue Operations 18

19 Ship Accidents in Svalbard area 220 km 430 km 19

20 Recent accidents Governor tows vessel Ortelius with 146 people back to Longyearbyen after engine failure. September 2016 Noorderlihtch grounded Polarcircle took in water after collision with Ice. 2 persons were picked up by helicopter. 20

21 Recent accidents Longyearbyen January 2017 UNIS boat with 12 people. -20 o C, took in water and both engines stopped. July Langøysund Motor stopped Fire. Longyearbyen 21

22 Risk Matrix. Svalbard area Risk matrix of consequences for environment Risk matrix of consequences for people (passengers, crew) red area symbols high risk, yellow modern, green low N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 22

23 Risk Matrix. Greenlandic waters Risk matrix of consequences for environment Risk matrix of consequences for people (passengers, crew) 23

24 isk Matrix. Icelandic waters Risk matrix of consequences for environment Risk matrix of consequences for people (passengers, crew) 24

25 Risk Matrix. Coastal Norway Risk matrix of consequences for environment Risk matrix of consequences for people red area symbols high risk, yellow modern, green low N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 25

26 Risk matrix. Russian part of Barents Sea Risk matrix of consequences for environment Risk matrix of consequences for people red area symbols high risk, yellow modern, green low. N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 26

27 Type of events of different risk level (red - high, yellow moderate, green low) for 2 regions under consideration 27

28 Share of events with different risk level in the regions Risk Matrix. Svalbard area consequences for environment consequences for people 28

29 Acknowlegement MARPART project Colleagues at UNIS Interview with capitain of Arctic Umiaq line ship Safraq Ittuk Poul Krogsgaard (more than 20 years experience) Thank you for your attention N. Marchenko_MARPART-2017_Nuuk 29