Overview on project activities with regard to thunderstorms

Transcription

1 Overview on project activities with regard to thunderstorms Arnold Tafferner Co-workers: C. Forster, H. Mannstein, T. Zinner, M. Hagen, T. Gerz, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA) Wetter&Fliegen Final Colloquium, MAC MUC, 15 March Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

2 Turbulence Lightning Turbulence Lightning Hail Icing Wind shear Representation of thunderstorms as hazard objects 2 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

3 3 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

4 Thunderstorm top objects 14 July :25 UTC 4

5 Cb-TRAM thunderstorm tracking and monitoring 14 July :25 UTC 3 development stages initial growth (yellow) rapid growth (orange) mature stage (red) 15/30 min nowcast (thin) 5

6 Cb-TRAM 14 July :40 UTC 3 development stages initial growth (yellow) rapid growth (orange) mature stage (red) 15/30 min nowcast (thin) 6

7 Cb-TRAM 14 July :40 UTC Superposition with LINET Lighning observations (nowcast GmbH) 7

8 Cb-TRAM 14 July :40 UTC Superposition with LINET Lightning observations (nowcast GmbH) 8

9 Thunderstorm bottom objects 14 July :45 UTC European radar composit (DWD) 9

10 Rad-TRAM Radar Tracking and Monitoring 14 July :45 UTC Bottom objects: heavy black contour 60 min nowcast thin 10

11 Rad-TRAM 14 July :45 UTC Superposition with LINET Lightning observations (nowcast GmbH) 11

12 Meteosat field of view 12

13 Cb-TRAM applied over South Africa yellow: convection initition (CI) orange: rapid development red: mature thunderstorm 13

14 CB-TRAM applied over South Africa yellow: convection initition (CI) orange: rapid development red: mature thunderstorm pink: lightning detections 14

15 15

16 16

17 0233Z estimated TASIL 1 June UTC: Cb-TRAM analysis of convective clusters possible suggested track from Cb WIMS and SDC 17

18 0233Z estimated TASIL 0130 UTC: Cb-TRAM analysis Approximate onboard radar range 0133 Z reportet INTOL 18

19 0233Z estimated TASIL 0200 UTC: Cb-TRAM analysis 19

20 0130 UTC: 0233Z estimated TASIL Alternate route? Only possible if - ATC permission - enough fuel - real time weather in the cockpit 0133 Z reportet INTOL alternate route? 20

21 Improved weather information in the Cockpit 21

22 Flight Test with Saphire on 9 August 2008 Left: Meteosat HRV with Cb cells in red (with tracks), LINET lightning obs in purple At 1325 UTC. Right: flight track On board observations near Lyon (arrow) 22

23 Navigationsdisplay im Cockpit :05 UTC 23

24 Navigationsdisplay im Cockpit :15 UTC 24

25 Navigationsdisplay im Cockpit :25 UTC 25

26 Obviously uplinked thunderstorm info useful for pilots, but also useful for all other air space users: Air traffic control Airport operations Airlines routing, regulation dispatch, apron operations dispatch, flight planning, crew, passengers Requirements: forecasts at least up to 2 hours occurrence of lightning (density) occurrence of hail warning messages 26 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

27 Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting Cloud tracker POLDIRAD Lightning Surface Analysis Radar tracker weather object specification oriented at user requirements Initiation Track Nowcast Forecast Object Comparison SYNSAT COSMO-DE & Ensemble Local forecasting SYNRAD Object Comparison 27 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

28 Forecast time top cell bottom gust 75% 50% 25% 1 Analysis 2 Nowcast < 30 min 3 Nowcast min 4 Nowcast > 60 min Decrease of descriptive detail over forecast time 28 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

29 3- hour weather forecast of COSMO-DE model for 15:00 UTC 29 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

30 3- hour weather forecast of COSMO-DE model for 15:00 UTC 30 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

31 Forecast validation by object comparison Meteosat IR observed objects SynSat forecast objects observed object LINET lightning obs (nowcast GmbH) observed object forecast object 21 July UTC 31

32 Forecast validation by object comparison Meteosat IR observed objects SynSat forecast objects 21 July UTC 32

33 Forecast validation by object comparison Meteosat IR observed objects SynSat forecast objects 21 July UTC 33 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

34 Forecast validation by object comparison Meteosat IR observed objects SynSat forecast objects 21 July UTC 34 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

35 Forecast validation by object comparison Meteosat IR observed objects SynSat forecast objects 21 July UTC 35 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

36 Forecast validation by object comparison Meteosat IR observed objects SynSat forecast objects 21 July UTC 36 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

37 WxFUSION GUI Automatic selection of best forecast red: observed objects Cb-TRAM blue: synthetic objects from COSMO-DE 37 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

38 Determination of thunderstorm intensity by fuzzy logic Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Dat 38

39 Where and when do thunderstorms develop? Rapidly developing thunderstorm Convective initiation over eastern Austria on 25 May 2009 at 11 UTC and 12 UTC: Upward air motion shaded (darker = stronger) White dashed contours enclose regions of moisture flux convergence from VERA Yellow contours initial convective cells; the orange contour rapidly developing cell. D. Stich Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum 39

40 40 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

41 Maximilian P. (MUC) 41 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

42 A. Westermayer 42 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

43 Summary on project activities with regard to thunderstorms Weather objects with user-specific attributes Adjustment to operational requirements (airport, ATM, pilots) Output as object files (XML): easy and selectively readable, small, extendable Combination of data sources with Fuzzy Logic More accurate description of weather phenomenon by fusion of data from several sources Parameter ranges used instead of fixed thresholds for observations Taking into account meteorological experience (forecaster) and concepts Taking into account local effekts Ensemble model forecast evaluation through object comparison Integration within one system Ongoing developments: convective initiation, life cycle, gust fronts nowcast-forecast combination 43 Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum