Climate change in Croatia: observations and modeling

Transcription

1 Climate change in Croatia: observations and modeling Lidija Srnec Meteorological and Hydrological Service Zagreb, CROATIA

2 Selected chapters: Observed climate changes in Croatia (Ksenija Cindrić, Marjana Gajić-Čapka, Ksenija Zaninović) Climate change scenario (Čedo Branković, Ivan Güttler, Mirta Patarčić, Lidija Srnec) Impact of climate variations and changes on plants and wildfire danger (Višnja Vučetić) Document is on: Fifth National Communication of the Republic of Croatia under the United Nation Framework Convention on the Climate Change (UNFCC), Ministry of the Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, Zagreb, January or the whole document:

3 Detection of climate variations and changes Osijek (continental climate) Zagreb-Grič (continental climate under a mild maritime influence) Gospić (continental climate of highland Croatia under a strong maritime influence) Crikvenica (maritime climate of eastern coast of the northern Adriatic) Hvar (maritime climate of the Dalmatian area) Period: anomalies according to the year binomial moving averages - trends for 108-, 100-, 75-, 50- and 25-year period.

4 Observed climate changes - MEAN ANNUAL AIR TEMPERATURE

5 Observed climate changes - The ten warmest years. (Years from the period are bolded.) Osijek Zagreb-Grič Gospić Crikvenica Hvar god C god C god C god C god C Osijek Zagreb-Grič Gospić Crikvenica Hvar god C god C god C god C god C

6 Observed climate changes - ANNUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TIME SERIES & TRENDS TIME SERIES OF COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION

7 Observed climate changes - The ten driest years. (Years from the period are bolded.) Osijek Zagreb-Grič Gospić # Crikvenica Hvar god mm god mm god mm god mm god mm Osijek Zagreb-Grič Gospić # Crikvenica Hvar god mm god mm god mm god mm god mm

8 Climate Change Scenario - Climate models and experiments EH5OM (MPI, Hamburg) global model RegCM (ICTP, Trieste) regional model 35km Time slice experiment (three integrations): - Present climate (20C3M) - Future climate under IPCC A2 scenario (SRESA2)

9 Global model results Surface temperature change in time

10 Precipitation change in time Global model results

11 Climate Change Scenario RegCM results - temperature T200 DJF T200 JJA T850 DJF T850 JJA Warming over the whole domain, through the whole atmosphere

12 Climate Change Scenario RegCM results for T2m DJF MAM JJA SON Warming over the whole domain

13 Climate Change Scenario - RegCM results for wind at 10m DJF JJA

14 Climate Change Scenario RegCM results for precipitation DJF MAM Less precipitation, particulary over Mediterranean JJA SON 5 December 2012, Zagreb, Croatia

15 Climate Change Scenario RegCM results DJF SNOW COVER DAYS WITH SNOW (DJF) CHANGE IN DAYS WITH SNOW 5 December 2012, Zagreb, Croatia

16 Climate Change Scenario RegCM results JJA HOT DAYS CHANGE IN HOT DAYS (JJA) DAYS WITH PRECIP > 10mm (DJF) CHANGE IN DAYS WITH PRECIP > 10mm (DJF) 5 December 2012, Zagreb, Croatia

17 Impacts of climate variations and change on plants and on wildfire danger -Plants are the first that react to the weather and climate change -Phenological phases of common lilac, apple and olive trees were considered -Daruvar -Zagreb -Gospić -Rab -Hvar -Period:

18 Impacts of climate variations and change on plants and on wildfire danger In the Croatian inland vegetation period for the majority of plants begins in March or April. The beginning of common lilac leaf unfolding in Zagreb is on 26 March in average, while in Daruvar on April 1st. The flowering usually starts three weeks after the leaf unfolding, while its fully flowering the common lilac achieves a week after the flowering start. In mountainous Croatia the beginning of vegetation is moved to April and May, so in Gospić the common lilac is usually leaf unfolding on 15 April and flowering on 6 May. It is exactly a month later than in Hvar. Naturally, a limit of vegetation beginning is earlier as it moves to the south of Croatia. Comparison between northern and middle Adriatic shows 4-5 days earlier start of common lilac leaf unfolding and flowering in Hvar than in Rab. In average, apple tree is leaf unfolding and flowering two weeks earlier in Daruvar (9 and 17 April ) than in Gospić (25 April 25th and 2 May). Apple maturation also starts two weeks earlier in Daruvar (6 September) than in Gospić (22 September). Such vegetation period of apple tree in the Croatian inland lasts for seven months, while in mountainous Croatia for six months due to an earlier beginning of colouring and leaves falling. Appearance of the first flowers, full flowering and end of olive tree flowering is a week earlier in Hvar than in Rab. However, first ripe fruits are usually by the middle of October, while the picking is in the first 10-day period in November at both locations.

19 Impacts of climate variations and change on plants and on wildfire danger In order to estimate a tendency of delay/earliness of phenophases in Croatia, linear trends of their appearance have been calculated for observed long-time period. BEGINNING OF FLOWERING COMMON LILAC LEAF FALL APPLE BEGINNING OF FLOWERING OLIVE FIRST RIPE FRUITS OLIVE

20 Impacts of climate variations and change on plants and on wildfire danger Analysis of climate change impacts on plants indicated in all climate zones an earlier beginning of flowering of observed plants in spring (result of warmer winter and spring). In autumn there is no such unambiguous delay in colouring and leaves falling in all climate zones, i.e. vegetation period extension is observed in the inland, but not in the mountainous Croatia. In Croatia there are 450 fires in average per year and burned area of 9000 ha. In the last 10 years the largest number of forest fires, total of 730, was recorded in 2000, when ha burned out. In extremely hot and dry years, such as 1998, 2003 and 2007, above average number of forest fires was recorded in the Adriatic area. - applying the Canadian method Fire Weather Index (FWI) to assess a danger of forest fires at the Adriatic. - by means of FWI daily severity rating (DSR) is determined - DSR daily values could be indicator of change of state from hour to hour for fast acting and distribution of fire brigades in endangered area.

21 Impacts of climate variations and change on plants and on wildfire danger In order to determine possible danger increase of forest fires at Adriatic, linear trends for MSR and non-parametric Mann-Kendall rank test have been analyzed for Crikvenica and Hvar within the season from May to September. Significant increase of potential danger is notified in Crikvenica in all months of fire season, while in Hvar in June and July. Increased forest fire risk, notified in June, is particularly important as it indicates to earlier beginning of fire season at Adriatic. However, the analysis also shows the expansion of the area with increased forest fire risk from the middle to northern Adriatic, especially in July and August. Reason of increased forest fire risk at northern Adriatic is due to a significant increase of mean air temperature and significant decrease of precipitation in summer.

22 Problems: Do we still have some doubts about climate change??? Informing public about results Informing goverment about results Informing important sectors (agriculture, health, tourism,...) Exchanging information & good cooperation & good decision making is the way how to act!!!

23 Thank you for your attention!