Climatic Classification of an Industrial Area of Eastern Mediterranean (Thriassio Plain: Greece)

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2 Climatic Classification of an Industrial Area of Eastern Mediterranean (Thriassio Plain: Greece) A. Mavrakis Abstract The purpose of this work is to investigate the possible differentiations of the climatic parameters of an industrial basin of the Eastern Mediterranean. For this purpose, the monthly average values of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation as well as the climatic indices of Kerner, Johansson, de Martonne, Pinna, SPI and the Discomfort Index were examined. The data cover the period from 1958 to In order to detect a possible trend in the aforementioned data we used the nonparametric test of Mann Kendall. The results for the climatic indices show a trend towards characterizing the climate as warmer and drier, but also an increase of the variation range of the climatic values. The results for the meteorological parameters show a warming trend, declining rainfall and a very significant reduction in relative humidity. The latter conclusion is consistent with intense land use change in the area of interest, and is due to a shift in the management of surface waters used for crops irrigation in the region. 1 Introduction The Thriassio Plain is located 20 km northwest of Athens and includes the municipalities of Elefsis, Aspropyrgos, Mandra and the community of Magoula. Although Thriassio Plain extends over an area of 500 km 2, all activities are concentrated in an area of 120 km 2. The presence of several mountains in close proximity to the sea and the local climatic conditions produce local regressive atmospheric circulation patterns that greatly inhibit the capability of atmospheric self-cleaning through dispersion and transport mechanisms. Temperature inversion heights are especially low during the cold period of the year, frequently being lower A. Mavrakis (*) Institute of Urban Environment and Human Resources, Department of Economic and Regional Development, Panteion University, 136 Syngrou Av., Athens , Greece mavrakisan@yahoo.gr C.G. Helmis and P.T. Nastos (eds.), Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, Springer Atmospheric Sciences, DOI / _85, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

3 600 A. Mavrakis than the surrounding hills and comparable to the highest chimneys of the large industrial compounds. This means that air pollutants are trapped within a shallow layer resulting in high (daily and hourly) pollution concentrations. The Thriassio Plain exhibits the higher (a) industrial activity concentration, (b) fuel consumption and (c) pollution related to the production processes, in Greece (Mavrakis et al. 2011). The area after WWII was industrialized urbanized and became a logistics center while agriculture was abandoned without any plan. This kind of development caused serious pollution problems making the area an example to avoid. The purpose of this work is to investigate possible differentiations of the climatic parameters of the area due to that kind of development. For this purpose, we examine monthly and annual mean values of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation as well as the climatic indices of Kerner, Johansson, de Martonne, Pinna, Discomfort Index (Zambakas 1992) and the SPI (McKee et al. 1995). 2 Data and Methodology The data used, covering the period from 1958 to 2008, were provided from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and refer to Elefsis station (LGEL). Data includes monthly and annual average values of air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and annual (sum) precipitation. The Kerner Oceanity Index identifies if the air masses have an oceanic origin, utilizing the fact that air masses in marine climates are colder during spring than in autumn. The index is expressed as: Z ¼ 100 ðt O T A Þ=R (1) where: T O and T A are the mean air temperatures of October and April respectively and R is the annual temperature range (difference between average temperatures in the warmest and coldest month) in C. Small values of the index indicate a continental climate while values higher than 10 indicate oceanic climate. Johansson Continentality Index is used to discriminate between continental and oceanic climates. The index is calculated by the following formula: K ¼ð1:7 R=sin Þ 20:4 (2) where R, is the annual temperature range, in C, and j is the station s latitude. The de Martonne index is a measure of the aridity of a region and is given by the following relationship: I ¼ P= ðt þ 10Þ (3)

4 Climatic Classification of an Industrial Area of Eastern Mediterranean 601 where P is the monthly sum of precipitation and T the monthly mean air temperature. When the value of I is lower than 20 then the land in this month needs to be irrigated (de Martonne 1926). Pinna has proposed the following index (Zambakas 1992): I ¼ 1=2ððP = T þ 10Þþð12 Px = Tx10ÞÞ (4) where P, T are the annual precipitation and mean air temperature and Px, Tx are the precipitation and mean air temperature of the driest month. This index describes, in a better way, the regions and seasons where irrigation is necessary since it takes into account the precipitation and air temperature of the driest month. For I < 10, the climate is characterized as dry and for 10 I 20 the climate is considered semidry Mediterranean with formal Mediterranean vegetation. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) normalizes anomalies in the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, thus enabling the comparison of drought severity among areas reflecting different hydrological regimes and quantifies the precipitation deficit for multiple time scales. These time scales reflect the impact of drought on the availability of the different water resources. The index was calculated using the SPI_SL_6 program (NDMC 2011). SPI was applied for five time scales in order to map the monthly, seasonal and annual variations of the phenomenon and examine in depth the effect of drought episodes. In particular, it was calculated for 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months. For the calculation of Discomfort Index (DI) we used the formula (Paliatsos and Nastos 1999): DI ¼ Ta 0:55 ð1 0:01RHÞðTa 14:5Þ (5) where Ta is the air temperature, in C, and RH is the relative humidity (in %). In order to detect possible trends in the aforementioned data we used the non parametric test of Mann Kendall (Sneyers 1990). 3 Results Temperature is the main meteorological parameter that determines the climatic character of an area. In Thriassio, the hottest months are July and August with climatic ( ) average temperature 28.6 and 28.2 C respectively. The highest temperature was recorded on 10th July 1977 (48.0 C) and the second higher temperature was recorded on 26th June 2007 (46.5 C) (Mavrakis et al. 2011). The absolute minimum temperature ( 7.5 C) was recorded on February 21st 2008, while the next lower ( 5.0 C) on 6th January The warmest and driest years were 2007 and During the summer of 2007, four heat waves events were observed (Theoharatos et al. 2010). Moreover, during 2007 low values of total rainfall were recorded while the average monthly value of the ambient temperature exceeded the average of the period under review by 0.7 C. The annual temperature range appears to be higher during the last 15 years compared to the respective

5 602 A. Mavrakis values in previous years, indicating a general tendency for warmer climate (hot summers and colder winders). The annual temperature range, namely the difference between average temperatures in the warmest and coldest month, is 19.4 C, which is in the range of the optimum temperature for human activity (18 20 C). There isn t any clear crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u (t) and the Mann-Kendall test gives a value of 1.19, indicating a non-statistically significant trend (Fig. 1a). The relative humidity shows a clear continuous decline during the last 20 years (Fig. 1b) confirmed by a statistically significant value ( 3.62) of the Mann-Kendall test, whereas the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u (t) suggests the turn point year to be The average precipitation shows a declining trend (Fig. 1c), but this doesn t concern the annual precipitation (Fig. 1d). The Mann-Kendall statistic is 0.47 and 0.11 respectively, which are not statistically significant. The starting point of the decrease seems to be around 1977 (for monthly precipitation) and 1972 (for annual). The Kerner index (Fig. 1e) shows a positive yet non-significant trend (Mann- Kendall value 1.18) whereas the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u 0 (t) indicates 1989 as a possible turn point year. According to the results, the climate of Thriassio Plain cannot be characterized as a marine climate, despite its proximity to the sea (Bay of Elefsis). Although the appearance of the sea breeze is very regular in Thriassio, it does not appear to affect significantly the climate of the region, maybe due to the specific geomorphology of the terrain (Mavrakis 2009). According to the Johansson index (Fig. 1f), the climate is characterized as marine when K varies between 0 and 33, as continental when K varies between 34 and 66, and as exceptionally continental when K varies between 67 and 100. According to results, Thriassio Plain is very continental. The estimated values were K > 90: 41 years and K < 90: 7 years. For a number of years we cannot draw any conclusion. Mann-Kendall test value was 1.19 and the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u 0 (t) suggests the turn point year to be The de Martonne climate index shows a normal course with the absence of extreme fluctuations. During 2 years (1964 and 1989) the calculated values were 7.2 and 6 respectively, while annual precipitation was less than 200 and 150 mm, suggesting significant dryness of the area, to such an extent as to reach the stage of desertification. Furthermore, a very impressive result is that the climate is characterized as Mediterranean only during 2 years, while in one case the climate is classified as semihumid. In most cases we are led to the designation semi. Mann-Kendall test value was 0.16 and the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u 0 (t) suggests the turn point year to be 1972 and The Pinna index best describes the areas and the seasons that the irrigation is necessary. The application of the Pinna index gives values of I >5: 41 years and I <5: 9 years (semi-dry Mediterranean climates with typical Mediterranean vegetation). Mann-Kendall test value was 0.09 and the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u 0 (t) suggests turn point years to be 1972 and SPI index (Fig. 1i) gives us the most significant signal concerning temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation. Mann-Kendall test value was 7.63 and the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u 0 (t) suggests the turn point year to be in This means that the area is becoming arid. The latter conclusion is consistent with the intense land use changes that happened during last decades.

6 Climatic Classification of an Industrial Area of Eastern Mediterranean 603 Fig. 1 Mann-Kendal test for annual: (a) air temperature, (b) relative humidity, (c) average precipitation, (d) annual precipitation, (e) Kerner index, (f) Johansson index, (g) de Martonne index, (h) Pinna index, (i) SPI index and (j) Discomfort Index

7 604 A. Mavrakis Finally for DI index (Fig. 1j) Mann-Kendall statistic is 1.38 (non significant) and the crossing of the stepwise curves u(t) and u 0 (t) suggests possible turn point years in 1982 and Conclusions The analysis of the meteorological parameters shows a warming trend, less precipitation and a strong, statistically significant reduction in relative humidity. According to Kerner and Johansson climatic indices, the area exhibits continental characteristics. A more realistic description of the climate was achieved by applying the de Martonne index that classifies the climate of Thriassio Plain as semi-arid. The same result was confirmed by Pinna index. According to the SPI index there is a strong and statistically significant reduction of precipitation both in temporal and spatial terms. The aforementioned indices indicated that possible turning points could be identified during: 1964, 1972, 1977, 1986, 1989, 2000 and The tendency towards a warmer and drier climate, suggested by the above analysis is consistent with intense land use change in the area of interest, and is due to a shift in the management of surface water used for crop irrigation in the region. This result could be a strong indication of the future climate of the area. From all the above results, it is reasonable to wonder about whether desertification is becoming a major problem of the area. References De Martonne E (1941) Nouvelle carte mondiale de l indice s aridité. Météorol 3 26 Mavrakis A (2009) Assessment of the spatial distribution of air pollution and its relation with land uses: the case of the Thriassion Plain. PhD thesis, Department of Economic and Regional Development, Panteion University. Mavrakis A, Spanou A, Pantavou K, Katavoutas G, Theoharatos G, Christides A, Verouti E (2011) Biometeorological and air quality assessment in an industrialized area of eastern Mediterranean-Thriassion Plain-Greece. Int J Biometeorol. doi: /s McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1995) Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. In: Ninth conference on applied climatology. American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp National Drought Mitigation Center (2011) SPI-SL_6 program. Available at edu/monitoringtools/downloadablespiprogram.aspx. Accessed on 2 October 2011 Paliatsos A, Nastos P (1999) Relation between air pollution episodes and Discomfort Index in the greater Athens area, Greece. Global Nest Int J 1(2):91 97 Sneyers R (1990) On the statistical analysis of series of observations. WMO Tech No 143, p 192 Theoharatos G, Pantavou K, Mavrakis A, Spanou A, Katavoutas G, Efstathiou P, Mpekas P, Asimakopoulos D (2010) Heat waves observed in 2007 in Athens, Greece: synoptic conditions, bioclimatological assessment, air quality levels and health effects. Environ Res 110 (2): doi: /j.envres Zambakas J (1992) General climatology. Department of Geology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece

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